August 2019 Discussion

[rimetree]

Beautiful up at the lake today

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[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like the rad spots really struggle more now in the winter.

It is definitely harder to radiate at CON versus earlier....while ORH can still get record lows a bit more often because they do it on CAA type airmasses.

Yeah I definitely think its harder for the radiators to get low these days compared to the past.   Locally I think MVL was put in around 1987 (so we've just got our first 30-year normals a couple years ago), so it's still sorting out its records.  Montpelier would be an interesting one to look at as they've had no site changes or even development around that grassy air field since the ASOS went in during the 50s.  BTV is a lost cause up here. 

I will say, whenever Dendrite mentions the CON records, they used to get real cold it seems.  Some of their records are surprising for how low they could get in the past on rad nights.

[CoastalWx]

Honestly, they should just look the other way at any indecent exposure this weekend. Just let 'em fly. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, they should just look the other way at any indecent exposure this weekend. Just let 'em fly. 

It's going to be fall-like.  Highs in the upper 60s up here with dews like 40-45F at the mtn valley sites on Sat/Sun afternoons per the GFS.  

GFS looks to have ORH failing to hit 75F for 4 straight days in August, then barely hits 75F on the 5th day (next Wednesday).   All with sunshine too...none of this rain cooled crap.  Just a classic early fall air mass.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's going to be fall-like.  Highs in the upper 60s up here with dews like 40-45F at the mtn valley sites on Sat/Sun afternoons per the GFS.  

GFS looks to have ORH failing to hit 75F for 4 straight days in August, then barely hits 75F on the 5th day (next Wednesday).   All with sunshine too...none of this rain cooled crap.  Just a classic early fall air mass.

Yeah it will be a little DSD in SNE low spots, but pretty sweet. Not ready for 60s yet..lol. Let the kids go to school first. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it will be a little DSD in SNE low spots, but pretty sweet. Not ready for 60s yet..lol. Let the kids go to school first. 

It’ll be perfect for the large Champlain Valley Fair this weekend and next week.  Fun time when it’s Chamber weather... horrible when it’s dews of 70F.  Great people watching weather...they come out from everywhere for that fair.  It’s like the suburbs meets West Virginia Appalachia all rolled into one.  

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I definitely think its harder for the radiators to get low these days compared to the past.   Locally I think MVL was put in around 1987 (so we've just got our first 30-year normals a couple years ago), so it's still sorting out its records.  Montpelier would be an interesting one to look at as they've had no site changes or even development around that grassy air field since the ASOS went in during the 50s.  BTV is a lost cause up here. 

I will say, whenever Dendrite mentions the CON records, they used to get real cold it seems.  Some of their records are surprising for how low they could get in the past on rad nights.

You're not kidding about MPV.....they have the same record length as ORH airport (ok, 1 year less...but basically the same)

 

MPV has set 32 low minimums in winter (DJFM) vs ORH's 24 since the year 2000. Just for reference, BTV has set 15. They are more in line with CON and like CON, the BTV airport site started around 1940.

[dendrite]

We've gone from manned obs to automated obs, max/min thermometers to digital probes, passive stevenson screens to fan aspirated shields, and lush wide fields to mulched Mars terrain surrounded by tarmac.

Once the ASOS period of record gets established enough, I think we're going to have to treat the pre-ASOS days almost the same way we treat the dead ball era in baseball. Cute stats, but pretty much tossed otherwise.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're not kidding about MPV.....they have the same record length as ORH airport (ok, 1 year less...but basically the same)

 

MPV has set 32 low minimums in winter (DJFM) vs ORH's 24 since the year 2000. Just for reference, BTV has set 15. They are more in line with CON and like CON, the BTV airport site started around 1940.

That makes me think it’s definitely site changes that play into the other sites... MPV is probably one of the more pristine sites up here with that POR and no site changes.  It’s a small air strip so it’s not like buildings are going up and paving going on.  Heck the same guy has probably been mowing the grass for decades lol.

 It’s just a great spot to monitor climate.

[dryslot]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it will be a little DSD in SNE low spots, but pretty sweet. Not ready for 60s yet..lol. Let the kids go to school first. 

Open the window and take it all in, Never to early for fall preparation.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a great summer, it had it all really. Now we begin to fade ever so slowly as we approach LD.

My electric bill is down 30% over last summer!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That makes me think it’s definitely site changes that play into the other sites... MPV is probably one of the more pristine sites up here with that POR and no site changes.  It’s a small air strip so it’s not like buildings are going up and paving going on.  It’s just a great spot to monitor climate.

Oh it almost certainly is....I don't think the instrumentation is off at a place like BTV. Occasionally a thermometer will go off its rocker, but it's really obvious when it does and usually gets corrected pretty quickly. Way more often, its a siting issue when stations start showing problematic temp obs. Sometimes the siting issue is temporary....piles of rocks at KCON, lol.....sometimes it might be more permanent like development around the airport. IAD Dulles is a good example of the latter....used to be out in the sticks and radiated like mad. Now they are in the middle of heavy development and don't come close to their former radiational glory days.

 

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We've gone from manned obs to automated obs, max/min thermometers to digital probes, passive stevenson screens to fan aspirated shields, and lush wide fields to mulched Mars terrain surrounded by tarmac.

Once the ASOS period of record gets established enough, I think we're going to have to treat the pre-ASOS days almost the same way we treat the dead ball era in baseball. Cute stats, but pretty much tossed otherwise.

Yeah I kind of lean with you on this. There's some evidence in the literature that the old passive stevenson screens with the liquid MMT produced warmer maxes and cooler mins than the newer digital thermometers at coops stations.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Open the window and take it all in, Never to early for fall preparation.

We beach bum until Labor Day.  After that, I'm all for cider donuts and Pats nation panicking from a 2-2 record in September. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We beach bum until Labor Day.  After that, I'm all for cider donuts and Pats nation panicking from a 2-2 record in September. 

We await the annual September Scooter meltdown in the Patriots thread every fall telling everyone how "this year is different"

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We beach bum until Labor Day.  After that, I'm all for cider donuts and Pats nation panicking from a 2-2 record in September. 

lol on being 2-2, I think we will do better, Enjoy the next two weeks though, Don't see a return to July at least here anyways in that period.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We await the annual September Scooter meltdown in the Patriots thread every fall telling everyone how "this year is different"

I'm done having any doubts. Although, you have to admit their regular season was a bit lack luster relative to their previous seasons. Anyways...lol. I think we can all agree on hoping the collective tendons of the Yankees starting lineup snaps quicker than Kevin's seasonal expectations by 9/30. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

lol on being 2-2, I think we will do better, Enjoy the next two weeks though, Don't see a return to July at least here anyways in that period.

More of how they start slow. Not necessarily meaning this year. 

[dryslot]

At some point, TB12 has to fall off of max kellermans cliff, Just don't think its yet though.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

More of how they start slow. Not necessarily meaning this year. 

Not to derail this thread, And my last comment here, But this team has the potential to be the best we have seen in their run.

[Ginx snewx]

Yesterday's rain

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm done having any doubts. Although, you have to admit their regular season was a bit lack luster relative to their previous seasons. Anyways...lol. I think we can all agree on hoping the collective tendons of the Yankees starting lineup snaps quicker than Kevin's seasonal expectations by 9/30. 

I mean, eventually it's not going to work for them....it's just funny how every year, there's always posts about how this is the year they don't turn on the jets late. That's the one advantage of not being a Patriots fan....I look at the fan base and team from a different perspective. Being a Cowboys fan....it also means I don't look at them through the prism of a division rival or even conference rival where hatred clouds judgement too. They are just sort of there existing in front of me every Sunday. But I always laugh at the panic.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not to derail this thread, And my last comment here, But this team has the potential to be the best we have seen in their run.

Shhh.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, eventually it's not going to work for them....it's just funny how every year, there's always posts about how this is the year they don't turn on the jets late. That's the one advantage of not being a Patriots fan....I look at the fan base and team from a different perspective. Being a Cowboys fan....it also means I don't look at them through the prism of a division rival or even conference rival where hatred clouds judgement too. They are just sort of there existing in front of me every Sunday. But I always laugh at the panic.

 

 

It's more about the decisions made and frustrations from that, when it seems that it may be catching up to them. But you're right. In December we all look like fools. 

 

In any case, still hanging onto dews near 60 on the water. 

[ORH_wxman]

To get back on topic a bit...Monday actually might be the best day out of the COC intrusion.

 

We get the retreating high up in Nova Scotia turning the flow more ENE....but still dry with the high really wedging down. So you're prob looking at temps near 70F with sunny skies over a lot of eastern MA/RI.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To get back on topic a bit...Monday actually might be the best day out of the COC intrusion.

 

We get the retreating high up in Nova Scotia turning the flow more ENE....but still dry with the high really wedging down. So you're prob looking at temps near 70F with sunny skies over a lot of eastern MA/RI.

I should probably add the caveat "unless the GGEM verifies"....lol. It tries to form a wave along the boundary to the south and give us precip on Monday.

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're not kidding about MPV.....they have the same record length as ORH airport (ok, 1 year less...but basically the same)

 

MPV has set 32 low minimums in winter (DJFM) vs ORH's 24 since the year 2000. Just for reference, BTV has set 15. They are more in line with CON and like CON, the BTV airport site started around 1940.

Out of curiosity I checked winter records for the Farmington co-op, including March and looking at records for both minima and maxima (fractions for ties), and both for the full 126-year POR and at 2000 forward.  They have set only 5 low minima 2000 on and just one (3/25/14) since 2009.  Given the 19 years 2000-on (2019 excluded), an even distribution would be 18.4 record lows for that 122-day period.  It's perhaps telling that the same 19 years saw 25 record low maxima.  There's cold air still, but the still clear winter mornings just aren't cooling off the same as in earlier times.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To get back on topic a bit...Monday actually might be the best day out of the COC intrusion.

 

We get the retreating high up in Nova Scotia turning the flow more ENE....but still dry with the high really wedging down. So you're prob looking at temps near 70F with sunny skies over a lot of eastern MA/RI.

Yeah the dry air grabs a little evapo cooling. We take.

[CoastalWx]

Post day 10 is interesting with a stalled front on the east coast as a deep trough digs into the Midwest. That's a good SOS signal for someone in the East. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Out of curiosity I checked winter records for the Farmington co-op, including March and looking at records for both minima and maxima (fractions for ties), and both for the full 126-year POR and at 2000 forward.  They have set only 5 low minima 2000 on and just one (3/25/14) since 2009.  Given the 19 years 2000-on (2019 excluded), an even distribution would be 18.4 record lows for that 122-day period.  It's perhaps telling that the same 19 years saw 25 record low maxima.  There's cold air still, but the still clear winter mornings just aren't cooling off the same as in earlier times.

Yeah, the mins are definitely where it is more noticeable. Even a non-radiator like ORH it shows up since there's no such thing as truly zero radiational cooling on our observation sites. Even ORH radiates a little bit....just less than pretty much everyone else.

But ORH airport has had 33 record low max temps since 2000 in the DJFM period. With records since 1947-1948, we would expect an even distribution to be 35 record low max temps. So it's very close on that front. But the 24 record low minimums is significantly below the 35 expected.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Post day 10 is interesting with a stalled front on the east coast as a deep trough digs into the Midwest. That's a good SOS signal for someone in the East. 

That’s the dew period . Middle of next week onwards with deep sw flow EC. If only we had a cane offshore . If only