CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea since summer lasts well into mid September I would say that's a good forecast I mean AN and dews. Embrace it and ride the belly to Taylor Swift’s house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s like saying deep winter is fading this time in Feb. ain’t happening James. I can feel the warmth increasing in the Feb sun filled car though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s like saying deep winter is fading this time in Feb. ain’t happening James. Thats about the worst analogy ever. We aren't talking about the weather rather natures signals. Let me know when its upper 90s and 100 again though. Do you grow a garden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I can feel the warmth increasing in the Feb sun filled car though. Tip agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Thats about the worst analogy ever. We aren't talking about the weather rather natures signals. Let me know when its upper 90s and 100 again though. Do you grow a garden? Same thing. Same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Temps and dews in mid Aug don’t give a damn about the changing seasons, but there’s definitely a lot less bite to being out in the sun midday. I mean, I still get roasted, but I burn in March and September too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean AN and dews. Embrace it and ride the belly to Taylor Swift’s house. Oh I will while you all dream of summer vacations past and think about football and school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Anyways I’m it hyping or exaggerating. Just how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Temps and dews in mid Aug don’t give a damn about the changing seasons, but there’s definitely a lot less bite to being out in the sun midday. I mean, I still get roasted, but I burn in March and September too. No doubt, like a late Feb snowstorm you know as soon as the sun comes out the roads will be fine. Its why DIT ends deep winter March 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thats about the worst analogy ever. We aren't talking about the weather rather natures signals. Let me know when its upper 90s and 100 again though. Do you grow a garden? We’ve done u90s and 100 in Sep before. We just need to do it with torchy airmasses and notsomuch sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Temps and dews in mid Aug don’t give a damn about the changing seasons, but there’s definitely a lot less bite to being out in the sun midday. I mean, I still get roasted, but I burn in March and September too. I’m fine with it in August. Come September, I’m about done with it. This year, it hasn’t bothered me as much. Been great to bring the kids out to the lake and beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m fine with it in August. Come September, I’m about done with it. This year, it hasn’t bothered me as much. Been great to bring the kids out to the lake and beach. We usually go apple picking the last third of September and by then I’m ready for some frosts. Torching away 9/1-9/20 is great. I like the extended deep growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Monday was always the warmer relaxation day ahead of the next front. We’ll torch it up again soon enough. Mm... I just wonder to be frank, if folks have been over playing/over anticipating the this "coc" idea for this week... Previous Euro runs never convincingly suppressed the 850 mb thermal layout enough to ( realistically ) buy days of that level of idealism... for one. I mean saying "this week" in any context, is plural. And now the 00z oper. rendition really doesn't at all from where I'm sitting. I mean..excluding yesterday and today... It's got a weak frontalysis/stationary boundary extending PHL to SE of BOS from 48 hours through 120 hours ...admittedly south ... however, there's essentially zippo CAA fields behind... And in fact, we are +14 up near your neck of the woods to +16 in SW CT the whole way. Don't get a two hours of sun from 9 am to 3 pm then - The only way that coc metaphor works out in a that sort of Euro synopsis is via cloud suppressed temperatures ... But that isn't the same deal,.. .and it's actually likely to be humid so that's the ball game. I haven't bothered to look at any GFS genetics... that entire species of model is flat out got me irked - ...on an unrelated note ( sort of ..), it overtly rasps the tops of ridge down too far, using any butterfly flap it can find up stream to do it... and I worry about even the mid range ranges come cold season...when we're trying to assess the real depths and trends for trough amplitude, and what's this thing gonna do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Beyond this week... guidance is bizarre looking... There some sort of deep EPO look ...if ephemeral ... with a deep anomaly careening S over/west of the western Canadian cordillera... and the appearance of an elevated(ing) NAO over the western limb of that particular domain space... The concurrence of those two large scale modalities suggests a big fantastic heat bomb from TX to New England... yet, we only see a pallid commitment. Oh the Euro's got some big number potential by D9/10 ...but by limitations of that time range alone...heh... Ah, may just be that we're seeing a snap shot mid way through a pattern change I guess I'll go scratch my brow line with extended perplexing thumbs over why the oper. GFS even exists just so I can 'dim this picture ' further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 some are bearish on the second half of week cool down. we shall see how that plays out I see upper 70’s and 56’s Wed-Fri for Ash . I would guess that only gonna happen with lots of clouds, a moderate east wind by day, or 10-12c 850’s at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: some are bearish on the second half of week cool down. we shall see how that plays out I see upper 70’s and 56’s Wed-Fri for Ash . I would guess that only gonna happen with lots of clouds, a moderate east wind by day, or 10-12c 850’s at most If using the Euro... I would tend to agree on the highs - although the 850s are not achieving that depth ...so tfwiw However, I'm not sure see 56 there ... The front ( as explained ..) is exceptionally weak, and there is limited/virtually no CAA on the backside...so, where is the air mass change coming from ? I'm sure someone will go out and find some graphical illustration/Euro-based product that clearly is over-exaggerating the amount of thermometer house response to a synoptic evolution, that in fairness ...really doesn't support said graphical illustration/Euro-based product ... and use that to refute... But, I'll just spare that individual that sloped/agenda/spin tactic and say don't bother.. Cooler/cozy climate relative numbers are not really as supportive for COC in that period that way things are trending here. But hey... maybe the new runs come in with a more coherently arguable 'house-cleaning' gust of post fropa air mass change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Actually ...surprisingly... the 00z GFS oper. version is reasonably well-behaved by not being as quick to erode the westerlies south in latitude as I've seen it do too often this summer... through 240 hours... I don't care to comment beyond - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If using the Euro... I would tend to agree on the highs - although the 850s are not achieving that depth ...so tfwiw However, I'm not sure see 56 there ... The front ( as explained ..) is exceptionally weak, and there is limited/virtually no CAA on the backside...so, where is the air mass change coming from ? I'm sure someone will go out and find some graphical illustration/Euro-based product that clearly is over-exaggerating the amount of thermometer house response to a synoptic evolution, that in fairness ...really doesn't support said graphical illustration/Euro-based product ... and use that to refute... But, I'll just spare that individual that sloped/agenda/spin tactic and say don't bother.. Cooler/cozy climate relative numbers are not really as supportive for COC in that period that way things are trending here. But hey... maybe the new runs come in with a more coherently arguable 'house-cleaning' gust of post fropa air mass change. Charts FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11, 2019 Author Share Posted August 11, 2019 Model humpers taking a beating this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 You two can be like nails on a chalkboard, lol. Dont use charts, don’t use models, why would any weather enthusiast actually look at something like that?! Just go with the EBFS...emotion based forecasting system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 What an incredible day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You two can be like nails on a chalkboard, lol. Dont use charts, don’t use models, why would any weather enthusiast actually look at something like that?! Just go with the EBFS...emotion based forecasting system. It’s going to be fun when DIT and Dews are total enemies after Columbus Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What an incredible day. Bottom line /discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to be fun when DIT and Dews are total enemies after Columbus Day. Tempestuous twins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You two can be like nails on a chalkboard, lol. Dont use charts, don’t use models, why would any weather enthusiast actually look at something like that?! Just go with the EBFS...emotion based forecasting system. Hard to discuss reality and model output with fantasy league lapdogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You two can be like nails on a chalkboard, lol. Dont use charts, don’t use models, why would any weather enthusiast actually look at something like that?! Just go with the EBFS...emotion based forecasting system. I use models.No one should be using charts that are biased scientifically proven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Man .. tornado Tuesday on the midday runs today for SNE as low rides front to north. Hope that continues as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: We’ve done u90s and 100 in Sep before. We just need to do it with torchy airmasses and notsomuch sun angle. No doubt, HHH season normally ends with the US open tennis championship weekend. Same weekend for our Jimmy Fund tournaments. Unusual to get above 93 after 9/11 but like a strong April snowstorm, it happens, but rarely according to xmacis less than 8% of the time in the Hartford area. Of course outside the cities its probably less than 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I use models.No one should be using charts that are biased scientifically proven According to who? Can you cite the scientific literature on this remark you are mimicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: According to who? Can you cite the scientific literature on this remark you are mimicking Ryan posted a study or link on it awhile back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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