powderfreak Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You have to find the highest positive departure site in the region and just use that as the baseline. Ha to be fair, I just looked through the SNE sites and man, what a difference from up north. That dew point boundary that's been around the past 3 days has really impacted the departures. We're going on our 4th day of low dews and it seems like it has never truly penetrated into SNE at all during this time. True gradient pattern to start the month of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM is quite impressive Wait until 12 hrs before. Great setup today anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Wait until 12 hrs before. Great setup today anyways Even the 12z GFS came in a bit more impressive than 6z. Here is NAM Bufkit for BDL...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but is there an EML associated with Wednesday’s potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha to be fair, I just looked through the SNE sites and man, what a difference from up north. That dew point boundary that's been around the past 3 days has really impacted the departures. We're going on our 4th day of low dews and it seems like it has never truly penetrated into SNE at all during this time. True gradient pattern to start the month of August. The warm water crushing COCKS in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but is there an EML associated with Wednesday’s potential? There is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 57 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha to be fair, I just looked through the SNE sites and man, what a difference from up north. That dew point boundary that's been around the past 3 days has really impacted the departures. We're going on our 4th day of low dews and it seems like it has never truly penetrated into SNE at all during this time. True gradient pattern to start the month of August. Should be -2.2ish at CON after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Should be -2.2ish at CON after today. wonder what'll it be after this ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 only here ... we want to dismiss summer. It was Aug 4 the other day and I read someone suggesting it's almost over because a swamp maple tinged.. ah..yeeeah To be fair, that was merely an observation, and only of a phenomenon that usually has begun at/before August 10. A couple red maples near the little farm pond down the road from home were nicely colored by this past weekend - as is the usual for the date. Any "almost over" suggestions have been added by the reader, or involve mindreading capability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who’s talking about NNE? Our forecasts are SNE derived lol, The thread says August 2019 Discussion, Not Tolland CT discussion thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Good thing there's no support for that sort of look in the extended, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 hours ago, tamarack said: Low 40s at my place this morning after yesterday's max of 73. Started nipping the tops off the cherry tomato vines so the already-set fruit has a better chance of ripening before frost. (Oops - should not have dropped the "f"-bomb, might cause distress for the ADATT folks.) Dr dews just smashed his vantage vue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Ha to be fair, I just looked through the SNE sites and man, what a difference from up north. That dew point boundary that's been around the past 3 days has really impacted the departures. We're going on our 4th day of low dews and it seems like it has never truly penetrated into SNE at all during this time. True gradient pattern to start the month of August. That streak of 2-4 AN covering Franklin County (Maine) seems odd. The 1981-2010 norms from the Farmington co-op are milder than their averages 1998-present (my period of record) but less so in summer than winter. I'm only -1.5 thru yesterday (today will kick that past -2) but a midnight obs on the 1st would've had that day at -1 rather than the recorded +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Good thing there's no support for that sort of look in the extended, too - I'd assume the correlations for the loading patterns in middle August aren't much different from those in July? ...i.e. not much correlation to + or - temps in our region depending on the NAO or PNA phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Bakers gonna bake . Keep your Jorts handy this fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Nice...we'll take that in September. Pretty sure we toss those maps though when they look like that in DJF. I guess they're more reliable in the warm season despite worse error scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Nice...we'll take that in September. Pretty sure we toss those maps though when they look like that in DJF. I guess they're more reliable in the warm season despite worse error scores. We're on to Sept as one of the GOAT coaches would reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 We'll go around to below average for a period, but we're going to get right back into a quite above-average pattern at some point during the second half of August and that could stick around through a good chunk of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Someone will be very angry when they sweat under 68/65 during their morning walk in the valley on Oct 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: We'll go around to below average for a period, but we're going to get right back into a quite above-average pattern at some point during the second half of August and that could stick around through a good chunk of September. Probably all fall and into the winter . Of course by then someone will be stomping his feet for the AN pattern to come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, tamarack said: only here ... we want to dismiss summer. It was Aug 4 the other day and I read someone suggesting it's almost over because a swamp maple tinged.. ah..yeeeah To be fair, that was merely an observation, and only of a phenomenon that usually has begun at/before August 10. A couple red maples near the little farm pond down the road from home were nicely colored by this past weekend - as is the usual for the date. Any "almost over" suggestions have been added by the reader, or involve mindreading capability. oh i know - ...just bustin' balls... Frankly, I hope that we ( finally ) get a front loader winter... Man, ... okay okay, so it's not statistically on point to expect that, but still... 2 in 7 should be at least more active between Thanks giggedy and spendmas...with 1 and 10 down right performing. ...it's the 1:10 that we're due on.. and by that, pack the whole way... Gee say it like that, it's 1:28 I think 2010 is the last big Dec we had but don't quote me... Otherwise... 2007 and 2008 back to back were good front winters ... I think... I know the best I ever experienced was 1995 while living on campus at UML. We had still morning cold fall leaf litter in early November ... Rivulets of ice on the shade side of the Canal where the the water trickles from betwixt the granite blocks... And one afternoon 3:50 or so...with the sun oblique upon the western horizon, the ice still clung at 44 F ... Meanwhile, NYC couldn't get below 60 - kind of a gradient look I suspect... Either way, a week later we had 3-5 mix/snow/zr ... and that was it. No idea what Earth looked like until the super nova thaw of late January, '96... Now THAT is how you run an early loader. Anyway, mix feelings on the prospects for early antics this go. We've seen an astonishingly persistent -AO in summer and it's been readily observable in modeling and verified height nodes retrograding across high latitudes. Stockholm syndrome alone would argue we sail into colder climes with blocks sending cold loads and up against unusually warm west Atlantic/bite waters? Mm mm tasty. Buuuut... the QBO is out of whack with the AO... The two are persistently expressing in the negative correlation ...which by definition should imply it's unstable and can't last - yet it has. ...Four months and counting. I'm almost inclined to believe that concurrent phasing may be a artifice of summer ...and that the hemisphere operates more so in quadrature as opposed to more like seamless integral. I mean it never is...seamless ... but, there's a reason the PNA isn't even correlated to the other indices at CDC, JJA,...because the R-wave construct concomitantly breaks down the standard teleconnector models... So, ...intuitively... it may stand to reason that the +QPB/-AO unlikeliness is merely an accident of season. If so...oy - ...that may not be so good for winter... Because, when the gradients increase the thing winds up again ... the integral tightens, the correlations turn back on... does that mean the -AO flips into the preferred statistical suggestion. Which is positive. I hope not... Because nothing is worse for a weather enthusiast than 30 straight days of inactive dearth in a positive temperature anomaly in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Probably all fall and into the winter . Of course by then someone will be stomping his feet for the AN pattern to come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'd assume the correlations for the loading patterns in middle August aren't much different from those in July? ...i.e. not much correlation to + or - temps in our region depending on the NAO or PNA phase? Oh there are none ...ahahahahaa I'm just havin' fun on lunch... It's yeah it's more likely that's coincident? But, having the PNA sag to -3SD and the NAO attempt +.5 SD is an interesting concurrent tele look when there are operational runs with monolith isohypsotic domes over Maryland ... not considering that and in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 euro looks a bit beefy Wednesday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Should be pretty dewy for all Wed and into Thursday. More 70-75 swampazz. Hopefully we bang. I need me some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 new GEFS looks like a 10 day period of BN weather before we moderate to N-AN.. September AN is not as Vicious as July AN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Should be an interesting day for sure. @StormSurge morning ocean Tstorm special From your lips to Zaator's ears! (What an awesome looking pup!) Gorgeous day today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Should be pretty dewy for all Wed and into Thursday. More 70-75 swampazz. Hopefully we bang. I need me some rain. I could see dews in the 73-77F range down this way Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: new GEFS looks like a 10 day period of BN weather before we moderate to N-AN.. September AN is not as Vicious as July AN.. GEFs have had that at all times all summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: GEFs have had that at all times all summer... Has it? Euro is showing it also.. it's not the ice age coming but certainly some BN temps for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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