Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[TheClimateChanger]

I mean just compare the last two decades of U.S. CRN data and/or US48 satellite derived data (you can even use the latter back to 1979) - neither of which is subject to any TOBs adjustment - to Martz's "raw" data. It's nonsense.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:43 AM, bluewave said:

Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021.

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	76.7	0
2	2020	76.6	0
3	2022	76.4	0
-	2010	76.4	0
-	1966	76.4	0
-	1949	76.4	0
4	1955	76.3	1
-	1943	76.3	0
5	2021	76.1	0
6	2016	76.0	0
7	2011	75.9	0
-	2005	75.9	0
-	1952	75.9	0
8	1959	75.6	0
-	1900	75.6	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1944	75.3	0
10	2002	75.0	0
-	1968	75.0	0

 

 

Summer 2024 finished in fourth place nationally behind 1936, 2021 & 2022.

 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Martz has previously said the observers were "smart off" to reset the high temperature on the following day. But apparently they weren't smart enough to follow instructions and conform to the observational standards that were in place at the time. 

After asking around, as Martz blocked me, here's his argument for others to see:

From his argument, it's clear that Martz does not understand time of observation bias (TOBS). TOBS does not result from COOP station observers not setting their minimum/maximum thermometers. It results from the time of observation. Hence, if a COOP observer resets his/her thermometer at 5 pm, the bias results from the time the thermometer is set, not from the failure to set it.

Here's a quick illustration:

Notice that the observer who resets at 5 pm has a higher reported maximum and mean temperature than if the standard 12 am-12am cycle were used. The observer was not incompetent. The observer set his/her thermometer on his/her schedule (5 pm). It was the time of observation, not observer competence, that made the difference.

Were Martz's approach utilized, the biases resulting from time of observation--in this case a 4° difference for Day 2--would skew the data. If one wants an accurate climate record, the biases need to be removed.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

So if the US net emissions have been reduced. China is the culprit?  Further US reductions would not have much of an effect until China climbs on board?

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So if the US net emissions have been reduced. China is the culprit?  Further US reductions would not have much of an effect until China climbs on board?

yeah no idea what/who owns the biggest pie slice...  i just find the implication interesting.  

given ch4's greenhouse efficiency being an order of magnitude+ more so than the co2 ... this all becomes academic if all these human ch4 sources, team up with arctic perm frost release ...etc and et al, and simply outpace any modeling or predictions and the like. 

methane has a much short half life tho -

[Typhoon Tip]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

 

love it ... the guy's on point, too. 

op ed:  sometimes one will start watching one of these and they'll get 5 min in when seamlessly ( or tried to ) it becomes why the 2nd coming and rapture is upon us.  or something will just seem off until finally it dove tails into a liberal conspiracy to scare humanity about the end of the world.

society really needs more of these sort of paraphrased articulations, those that simplify [perhaps] that which is too complex for the majority of background population. 

part of the problem with reticence and lack of acceptance ..etc of environment and the travails et al, is really just for loss of awareness before even going into any discussion. there's a gap there.   too many are not connecting fast enough over what they are being told, because they don't know enough to begin with.   we don't need to be psychologist to sense that it's easier to dispense of any message that does not resonate.

and it gets worse when we think about the conditioning since the industrial revolution.  there's a negative feedback from convenience [addling], that's compounding over successive generations.   denying just about anything is privilege to do so, enabled by the relative safety of the industry realm.   

i read somewhere that the average i.q. is some 20 points lower in modernity compared to the a 200 years ago.  having access to more information doesn't make one smarter.  the information has to by virtue and willingness to the observer, actually get learned.  the processing intelligence [think working a muscle ) is also weaker.   why is all this so?  it is because we are soaked with choices and recourse, such that there are far less ramifications severe enough.  minds are not predicting consequence prior to actions or idiocy, when losses are not perceived as permanent.  this stuff has been touched on by literary works since the advancement of the printing press. it's not really novel. 

but the point is ... cc to micro plastics and all of it, it doesn't appeal to people that have no receiver to get the message.   these quick-for-low-attention-span exposes are useful to the lower attention span that comes with an "Idiocracy".

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami#img-1

edit: actually that link isn’t loading properly… Just go to “the guardian”

And search on this title

Entire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami

 

 

interesting …

I recall, reading about a seismic event on the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet many years ago during the beginning of the hockey stick warming of the earth. Period of climate change…

It was subsequently theorized that it’s possible that a large majority of the interior ice sheet could ultimately fail in one single cataclysmic event sending much of the ballast of the ice into the sea the north Atlantic… Setting off a global tsunami/abrupt sea level rise of a couple of meters or more  

So these kinds of things are happening above and it’s really not too too dissimilar to that just happening on a much smaller scale 

 

[ChescoWx]

Another calming voice who is not a climate alarmist.....Meterologist Steve DiMartino. from NY NJ PA Weather - from his post today.

"So, unlike many others, I am going to answer this question. 1. People like Al Gore and others calling Climate Change an emergency or an existential threat have done more harm to understanding Climate Change than any person denying climate data. So let me be clear: we are not on any trajectory, nor have we ever been on one now where NYC or Miami will be under water any time soon. Can that happen in 100 or 200 years? Sure. Why? Well, because there is a lot of gradual change happening geologically (its been sinking since the end of the ice age) and a gradual rise of the sea (rough 0.14" per year), eventually these cities will either have serious flooding issues constantly or will be under water. Not in a decade or even three, but in hundreds of years, yes.No matter what we do, use coal or go carbon zero, we will have storms. This idea that powerful storms will become less likely is again, idiotic. People blaming every storm on climate change are doing so to drive emotion and nothing more. 5. This scientist has no issue with addressing your questions, but please don't blame me for the statements of an idiot politician"

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Another calming voice who is not a climate alarmist.....Meterologist Steve DiMartino. from NY NJ PA Weather - from his post today.

"So, unlike many others, I am going to answer this question. 1. People like Al Gore and others calling Climate Change an emergency or an existential threat have done more harm to understanding Climate Change than any person denying climate data. So let me be clear: we are not on any trajectory, nor have we ever been on one now where NYC or Miami will be under water any time soon. Can that happen in 100 or 200 years? Sure. Why? Well, because there is a lot of gradual change happening geologically (its been sinking since the end of the ice age) and a gradual rise of the sea (rough 0.14" per year), eventually these cities will either have serious flooding issues constantly or will be under water. Not in a decade or even three, but in hundreds of years, yes.No matter what we do, use coal or go carbon zero, we will have storms. This idea that powerful storms will become less likely is again, idiotic. People blaming every storm on climate change are doing so to drive emotion and nothing more. 5. This scientist has no issue with addressing your questions, but please don't blame me for the statements of an idiot politician"

The NOAA has an interactive map where one can look up sea rise scenarios up to the year 2100.

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-8238447.1697526295/4970176.725736294/10/satellite/125/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

One can look up local scenarios based on 2017 and 2022 projections. Afterward, one can also look up the degree of flooding at various locations based on the extent of sea level increase. Neither Miami nor New York City is projected to be underwater anytime soon. Even by 2100, at the high projection, much of NYC is not flooded. No serious climate scientist is calling for either city to be flooded in the near-term (next few decades). The incidence of flood events (sunny day and during storms is expected to increase).

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NOAA has an interactive map where one can look up sea rise scenarios up to the year 2100.

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-8238447.1697526295/4970176.725736294/10/satellite/125/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

One can look up local scenarios based on 2017 and 2022 projections. Afterward, one can also look up the degree of flooding at various locations based on the extent of sea level increase. Neither Miami nor New York City is projected to be underwater anytime soon. Even by 2100, at the high projection, much of NYC is not flooded. No serious climate scientist is calling for either city to be flooded in the near-term (next few decades). The incidence of flood events (sunny day and during storms is expected to increase).

Must be a wonderful life you have, with all of your time on the internet spent telling people they are wrong. After all, everyone loves being told they are wrong and stupid all the time.

[ChescoWx]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:43 AM, bluewave said:

Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021.

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	76.7	0
2	2020	76.6	0
3	2022	76.4	0
-	2010	76.4	0
-	1966	76.4	0
-	1949	76.4	0
4	1955	76.3	1
-	1943	76.3	0
5	2021	76.1	0
6	2016	76.0	0
7	2011	75.9	0
-	2005	75.9	0
-	1952	75.9	0
8	1959	75.6	0
-	1900	75.6	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1944	75.3	0
10	2002	75.0	0
-	1968	75.0	0

 

Reading Airport trying to get as warm as PHL....RDG is now somehow warmer than the hot spot of their southern neighbor in Chester County - Phoenixville thanks to their climate change warming....

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Reading Airport trying to get as warm as PHL....RDG is now somehow warmer than the hot spot of their southern neighbor in Chester County - Phoenixville thanks to their climate change warming....

 

Bradford was the most impressive warm record this summer in PA as it beat the previous warmest summer by nearly a full degree rather than the tenth of a degree at Reading.

 

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	68.2	0
2	2021	67.3	0
3	2022	67.0	0
-	2020	67.0	0
4	2016	66.5	0
5	2018	66.3	0
6	2012	66.1	1
7	2023	66.0	0
-	2005	66.0	0
-	1991	66.0	0
-	1975	66.0	0
8	1959	65.9	0
9	2011	65.8	0
-	1993	65.8	0
-	1987	65.8	0

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Bradford was the most impressive warm record this summer in PA as it beat the previous warmest summer by nearly a full degree rather than the tenth of a degree at Reading.

 

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	68.2	0
2	2021	67.3	0
3	2022	67.0	0
-	2020	67.0	0
4	2016	66.5	0
5	2018	66.3	0
6	2012	66.1	1
7	2023	66.0	0
-	2005	66.0	0
-	1991	66.0	0
-	1975	66.0	0
8	1959	65.9	0
9	2011	65.8	0
-	1993	65.8	0
-	1987	65.8	0

 

 

unrelated observation ... but, that cool region in the mid west is interesting.  

i read material - perhaps links provided in this site's climate threads - related to farmland irrigation practices causing that.  elevating evaporation mass lowers the temperature, but stores the energy in the dps

might be interesting to see this product as dew points and then overlay -