Bhs1975 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Because we are all still waiting for the first actual weather event attributed to climate change that has not occurred before.... or even if you could point to more frequency of scary climate events that never occurred before. Boy that cried wolf syndrome in full force here!All weather and climate can be contributed to climate change as we are fundamentally changing the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, chubbs said: Instead of "apples to apples" I see a lot of station changes that you aren't analyzing properly. The chart I posted previously illustrates the point. There are other differences between these stations besides elevation. For one thing the older data is from Coop stations, while the modern data is predominantly non-Coop. As an example Glenmoore Coop and your house are very similar in location and elevation, but differ by almost 2F on average. Simply taking an average of a group of stations skews the results if the stations operated over different periods. Per chart below all the "elevated" stations are warming but the average is flat. Nice graphic. This depicts exactly what I had said months ago. I know it's not all of the stations, but you've picked a pretty representative 5-site sample, and demonstrated how every station could have a defined warming trend within a certain time frame but the average of all available stations can show a fake cooling trend if warmer stations are replaced over time by cooler ones [or even if simply more "cooler" stations are added to the station mix over time]. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, chubbs said: Instead of "apples to apples" I see a lot of station changes that you aren't analyzing properly. The chart I posted previously illustrates the point. There are other differences between these stations besides elevation. For one thing the older data is from Coop stations, while the modern data is predominantly non-Coop. As an example Glenmoore Coop and your house are very similar in location and elevation, but differ by almost 2F on average. Simply taking an average of a group of stations skews the results if the stations operated over different periods. Per chart below all the "elevated" stations are warming but the average is flat. Below is the by decade split of average temps since the 1950's by elevation. As expected very cyclical in nature with cooler decades followed by warmer rinse and repeat. The lower elevations during the 2010's were within 0.2 degrees of the 1950's....both the higher and lower spots have unsurprisingly cooled a bit since the 1990's peak warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Below is the by decade split of average temps since the 1950's by elevation. As expected very cyclical in nature with cooler decades followed by warmer rinse and repeat. The lower elevations during the 2010's were within 0.2 degrees of the 1950's....both the higher and lower spots have unsurprisingly cooled a bit since the 1990's peak warmth!So if there is no major change then what is causing all the rapid ice loss on the planet, most of which has stable for hundreds of thousands of years?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 minute ago, Bhs1975 said: So if there is no major change then what is causing all the rapid ice loss on the planet, most of which has stable for hundreds of thousands of years? . Great question!! I guess those rapid changes are clearly just not penetrating the climate fence that is securely around the Chester County PA border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Below is the by decade split of average temps since the 1950's by elevation. As expected very cyclical in nature with cooler decades followed by warmer rinse and repeat. The lower elevations during the 2010's were within 0.2 degrees of the 1950's....both the higher and lower spots have unsurprisingly cooled a bit since the 1990's peak warmth! LOL so the low elevation stations cooled dramatically in one decade 1950s--->1960s, while the high elevation stations warmed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 11 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Great question!! I guess those rapid changes are clearly just not penetrating the climate fence that is securely around the Chester County PA border.... So your whole worldview depends on Chesco not warming. No wonder you ignore all the cracks in the edifice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, chubbs said: So your whole worldview depends on Chesco not warming. No wonder you ignore all the cracks in the edifice. Nope! no comment on the world only Chesco....i am sure someday we too will realize the same scary climate change and all of those horrible unprecedented events we are seeing occurring across the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 11 minutes ago, chubbs said: LOL so the low elevation stations cooled dramatically in one decade 1950s--->1960s, while the high elevation stations warmed. There were a lot more low elevation stations in the 50's....we are much more balanced with the cooling from the 1990's to the 2010's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 32 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: There were a lot more low elevation stations in the 50's....we are much more balanced with the cooling from the 1990's to the 2010's LOL. Weather station data is highly correlated over hundreds of miles. All the stations in Chesco should move the same way. If they don't there is a problem with the measurements or analysis or both. 33 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Nope! no comment on the world only Chesco....i am sure someday we too will realize the same scary climate change and all of those horrible unprecedented events we are seeing occurring across the planet. You live in a different Chesco than I do. All I see is steady warming just like the rest of the world. Your own Chescowx data says so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 You live in a different Chesco than I do. All I see is steady warming just like the rest of the world. Your own data says so.Is Chesco Co on planet Earth? Just checking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: Is Chesco Co on planet Earth? Just checking. . Its on a flat earth with a green sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 If anything, NOAA consistently underplays how much warming has taken place. Just look at this map, and then compare it to the actual rankings of the various first order climate sites. This discrepancy grows more each and every year. And it has nothing to do with UHI, because the trend is the same for rural sites. Every site in the state of Pennsylvania is having a top 10 warmest June, with the exception maybe of Pittsburgh. I think it's top 12, but that's heavily influenced by the fact that the downtown station was nearly 500' lower in elevation. Plus, it goes back to 1874, not 1893 as this map. Several locations are near their warmest Junes on record. Yet NOAA claims it's not been warm at all. Top 15-25 - which is where they have most of the state - is not warm in this era. No idea what data they are looking at. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 33 minutes ago, chubbs said: LOL. Weather station data is highly correlated over hundreds of miles. All the stations in Chesco should move the same way. If they don't there is a problem with the measurements or analysis or both. You live in a different Chesco than I do. All I see is steady warming just like the rest of the world. Your own Chescowx data says so. I am old enough to remember our climate did not begin since 1970!!! LOL!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 24 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: Is Chesco Co on planet Earth? Just checking. . Sure with data since 1970.....c'mon man!! LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 13 hours ago, GaWx said: The HRRR maps being analyzed are for 3PM tomorrow (6/26), not today. I’ll compare them after then to see how they did. But indeed, low dewpoints and high heat were there today as you said. Will dewpoints be low enough and temps high enough tomorrow for the comparison? We’ll see! Ah, interesting. Looks like it's doing an excellent job today as well, with widespread temperatures already between 95 & 100. Dewpoints have dropped back into the 50s in most areas, already see a couple of 40s showing up (KWRB - 99/49; and KOPN 93/41). Might even see some Tds drop into the 30s if this keeps up. Must be a big relief for those of you in the southeast to see those kinds of dewpoints at this time of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Also, for the urban heat enthusiasts, find the so-called UHI in this set of data. We have one very large city, surrounded by rural areas and small. Urban heat theory would say the city is the hottest spot by far. For the record: I don't doubt UHI exists, this is for the bozos who say it's the cause of the warming and way overplay its impact - especially on trend. Like UHI warms the local environment relative to forests or farmland [mostly w.r.t. overnight lows], but it doesn't cause a never-ending warming trend. Or start warming areas outside of the city and/or oceans. That makes zero sense. If you listen to some of these bozos, the city should be 10F+ warmer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: If anything, NOAA consistently underplays how much warming has taken place. Just look at this map, and then compare it to the actual rankings of the various first order climate sites. This discrepancy grows more each and every year. And it has nothing to do with UHI, because the trend is the same for rural sites. Every site in the state of Pennsylvania is having a top 10 warmest June, with the exception maybe of Pittsburgh. I think it's top 12, but that's heavily influenced by the fact that the downtown station was nearly 500' lower in elevation. Plus, it goes back to 1874, not 1893 as this map. Several locations are near their warmest Junes on record. Yet NOAA claims it's not been warm at all. Top 15-25 - which is where they have most of the state - is not warm in this era. No idea what data they are looking at. Yes, June has been a very warm month in Pennsylvania. Some locations have experienced their warmest June 1-25 on record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Also, for the urban heat enthusiasts, find the so-called UHI in this set of data. We have one very large city, surrounded by rural areas and small. Urban heat theory would say the city is the hottest spot by far. Regarding this map with forecasted highs: -Atlanta’s official station is the airport, not downtown. It is near the perimeter. Unfortunately, downtown doesn’t have an official station, which would be where the UHI center is typically strongest obviously. So, if the official Atlanta high were to be 98 as this map is forecasting, downtown could easily be over 100 if the winds are light enough. We’ll never know. -Atlanta has higher elevation than Dalton/Thomaston by 300 feet, Rome/Athens/Madison by 400 feet, Macon/Sandersville by 600 ft, and Columbus/Dublin by 800 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, June has been a very warm month in Pennsylvania. Some locations have experienced their warmest June 1-25 on record. Interesting. It looks warmer than the IEM estimate, but I'm not sure what data they are drawing off of that... also, the inclusion of May 31 data (7 am) draws it down a bit relative to a 24-hour day. Guess we'll have to wait and see what NCEI shows. Of course, most of the record warm sites have short PORs. But I'd still say the first order climate sites would suggest a top 10 warm June, and probably top 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Regarding this map with forecasted highs: -Atlanta’s official station is the airport, not downtown. It is near the perimeter. Unfortunately, downtown doesn’t have an official station, which would be where the UHI center is typically strongest obviously. So, if the official Atlanta high were to be 98 as this map is forecasting, downtown could easily be over 100. We’ll never know. -Atlanta has higher elevation than Dalton/Thomaston by 300 feet, Rome/Athens/Madison by 400 feet, Macon/Sandersville by 600 ft, and Columbus/Dublin by 800 ft. NWS has 98 as the forecast high for downtown Atlanta and KATL. I believe that forecast is for downtown Atlanta. Actually, comparing the two point-click forecasts, KATL is the same or a degree warmer every period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, June has been a very warm month in Pennsylvania. Some locations have experienced their warmest June 1-25 on record. What's interesting is, unlike many months, in many cases, it has been many decades since these longer POR stations had a warmer June. 1994, 1967, 1943, 1925 & 1919 show up a lot on the list of warm Junes in the commonwealth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: NWS has 98 as the forecast high for downtown Atlanta and KATL. I believe that forecast is for downtown Atlanta. Actually, comparing the two point-click forecasts, KATL is the same or a degree warmer every period. But there’s no official downtown Atlanta station to see how hot downtown will be. So, we’ll never know what their actual will be. There hasn’t been an official downtown station there in many decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Ah, interesting. Looks like it's doing an excellent job today as well, with widespread temperatures already between 95 & 100. Dewpoints have dropped back into the 50s in most areas, already see a couple of 40s showing up (KWRB - 99/49; and KOPN 93/41). Might even see some Tds drop into the 30s if this keeps up. Must be a big relief for those of you in the southeast to see those kinds of dewpoints at this time of the year. Check this out CC and others for something fascinating at Augusta, GA (Bush): -noon was 93 with a dewpoint of 76 on a SE wind at 9 -1PM was 99 with a dewpoint way down at 58 on a SW wind at 13 gusting to 22!! That’s a heck of a boundary that went through there last hour, a dry line of sorts! And the drier air came in on SW winds! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting. It looks warmer than the IEM estimate, but I'm not sure what data they are drawing off of that... also, the inclusion of May 31 data (7 am) draws it down a bit relative to a 24-hour day. Guess we'll have to wait and see what NCEI shows. Of course, most of the record warm sites have short PORs. But I'd still say the first order climate sites would suggest a top 10 warm June, and probably top 5. My chart is strictly June 1-25. I suspect that PA will easily have a top 10 June when the data is released next month by the NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: But there’s no official downtown Atlanta station to see how hot downtown will be. So, we’ll never know what their actual will be. There hasn’t been an official downtown station there in many decades. Speaking of Atlanta, Atlanta has now recorded its fifth consecutive 97° or above temperature today. That further extends the June record. The old mark was three consecutive days. That was also its 6th such temperature this month, which ties the record set in 1936. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Check this out CC and others for something fascinating at Augusta, GA (Bush): -noon was 93 with a dewpoint of 76 on a SE wind at 9 -1PM was 99 with a dewpoint way down at 58 on a SW wind at 13 gusting to 22!! That’s a heck of a boundary that went through there last hour, a dry line of sorts! And the drier air came in on SW winds! Could be mixing of dryer air from aloft. As the ground warms the depth of mixing increases. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 On 6/25/2024 at 7:15 AM, GaWx said: Here is the 6Z HRRR temperature map for 19Z (3PM EDT) tomorrow showing many non-mountain/non-coastal locations of VA/NC/SC/GA 101-104: Here is the 6Z HRRR dewpoint map for the same hour showing the same locations with 43-58 dewpoints: Comparing to NWS forecasts, these HRRR temperatures are several degrees hotter and dewpoints are significantly cooler. The HRRR dewpoints of 43-48 in the Charlotte, NC, to Macon/Columbus, GA, corridor look especially way too low. I’ll compare to reality tomorrow to see how well this HRRR run ends up verifying in these 4 states’ non-mountain/non-coastal locations with temperatures/dewpoints. I expect this run will verify with temperatures several degrees too hot most locations and dewpoints significantly too cool most locations. The NWS, which wasn’t quite as hot nor nearly as dry as the HRRR, did better than the HRRR. Verification of yesterday’s 6Z HRRR prog for temperature/dewpoint at 19Z/3PM EDT today: Richmond, VA: HRRR 103/52 vs actual 99/68 Raleigh, NC: HRRR 100/61 vs actual 96/66 Charlotte, NC: HRRR 102/48 vs actual 98/63 Columbia, SC: HRRR 103/58 vs actual 100/60 Florence, SC: HRRR 99/64 vs actual 94/73 Atlanta, GA: HRRR 101/45 vs actual 95/55 Augusta, GA: HRRR 103/46 vs actual 99/52 Brunswick, GA: HRRR 96/66 vs actual 91/78 Summary for 8 cities: -HRRR was too hot for all 8 with avg miss of +4.4 with range of +3 (Columbia) to +6 (Atlanta) -HRRR was too dry for all 8 with avg dewpoint miss of -9.4 with range -2 (Columbia) to -16 (Richmond) 3PM data sources: GA https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.asus42.FFC.KFFC.html SC https://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.asus42.CAE.KCAE.html NChttps://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.asus42.RAH.KRAH.html VAhttps://kamala.cod.edu/va/latest.asus41.AKQ.KAKQ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 8 hours ago, chubbs said: Instead of "apples to apples" I see a lot of station changes that you aren't analyzing properly. The chart I posted previously illustrates the point. There are other differences between these stations besides elevation. For one thing the older data is from Coop stations, while the modern data is predominantly non-Coop. As an example Glenmoore Coop and your house are very similar in location and elevation, but differ by almost 2F on average. Simply taking an average of a group of stations skews the results if the stations operated over different periods. Per chart below all the "elevated" stations are warming but the average is flat. This is a perfect illustration of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 11 hours ago, chubbs said: Instead of "apples to apples" I see a lot of station changes that you aren't analyzing properly. The chart I posted previously illustrates the point. There are other differences between these stations besides elevation. For one thing the older data is from Coop stations, while the modern data is predominantly non-Coop. As an example Glenmoore Coop and your house are very similar in location and elevation, but differ by almost 2F on average. Simply taking an average of a group of stations skews the results if the stations operated over different periods. Per chart below all the "elevated" stations are warming but the average is flat. By the way Charlie no clue where you got the 2 degree difference over the period of record, Glenmoore COOP . The actual average over the POR is EN 53.0 and Glenmoore COOP 53.7 - below is the actual annual average temp by station comparison by Year for 2004 thru 2022 with EN top and Glenmoore COOP below - not any year has any material differences at all! 52.2 53.1 54.3 52.7 52.5 51.8 53.3 53.3 54.2 51.7 50.4 52.7 54.1 53.9 53.4 53.6 54.7 54.6 52.6 53.6 53.8 54.4 52.7 52.2 51.4 53.7 53.9 54.7 52.1 50.7 53.2 54.2 53.8 52.9 53.2 54.1 54.0 52.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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