Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[GaWx]

On 8/9/2023 at 6:58 PM, GaWx said:

 Looking ahead to the possible effects on US winters 2024-5 through 2028-9 from the January of 2022 Tonga volcano, the chance of a multiyear El Niño MAY be enhanced while the volcano still has influence, especially during 2025-9. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and warm NW. Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern. Maybe this will counteract the chance for the Niña that at least one model run (August CANSIPS) was suggesting to be possible for 2024-5??

 

"The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef), and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies consistent with an El Nino-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection

 

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1796205985486295239?t=Km8tWolznOV-q8zxpluf6g&s=19

 

 

This same paper was put out in Aug of 2023 as per my 8/9/23 post quoted above. It appears the same one was just re-released on 5/27/24 and that's what Ryan is referring to. So, although Ryan refers to this as new, he doesn't realize it was first released 8 months ago.

 It is an interesting paper as it suggests that the significant effects may last til 2030 as Ryan says.

Looking ahead to the possible effects on US winters 2025-6 through 2028-9 from the January of 2022 Tonga volcano, the chance of a multiyear El Niño MAY be enhanced while the volcano still has influence. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and warm NW. Also, note especially figure 11d (see my link to August 2023 paper), which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern.

 From the paper:

"Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

This same paper was put out in Aug of 2023 as per my 8/9/23 post quoted above. It appears the same one was just re-released on 5/27/24 and that's what Ryan is referring to. So, although Ryan refers to this as new, he doesn't realize it was first released 8 months ago.

 It is an interesting paper as it suggests that the significant effects may last til 2030 as Ryan says.

Looking ahead to the possible effects on US winters 2025-6 through 2028-9 from the January of 2022 Tonga volcano, the chance of a multiyear El Niño MAY be enhanced while the volcano still has influence. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and warm NW. Also, note especially figure 11d (see my link to August 2023 paper), which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern.

 From the paper:

"Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

More tired recycling of the same nonsense. When La Nina begins later this year, can we finally put this nonsense to bed?

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

More tired recycling of the same nonsense. When La Nina begins later this year, can we finally put this nonsense to bed?

I mean we are almost 2 1/2 years from that eruption. How many more years are these people going to attempt to attribute the global heat wave to that volcano?

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

More tired recycling of the same nonsense. When La Nina begins later this year, can we finally put this nonsense to bed?

Just because we're about to have La Nina doesn't say anything about 2025-2029. And the paper's idea about a POSSIBLE multiyear El Nino before 2030 doesn't exclude La Nina in 2024-5. I'm at least going to wait to see what 2025-6 brings. Of course, even if we do have a multiyear Nino then, that wouldn't prove the connection to Hunga Tonga.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean we are almost 2 1/2 years from that eruption. How many more years are these people going to attempt to attribute the global heat wave to that volcano?

 I'm remaining open-minded about how much of the excess heat since 2023 can be connected to Hunga Tonga since it still hasn't been explained. The atmosphere is way too complex and Hunga Tonga was quite unique with regard to the volume of water vapor added to the stratosphere,

[AdMC]

Hey guys while you squabble about whether or not climate change is real, the world is on fire...we need to be solutions oriented at this point. The ship has sailed on trying to convince the deniers. Maybe let's create a new subforum about climate change solutions.

At this point we'll need to come up with and implement geoengineering solutions to bring down the heat imbalance every square meter that our planet is experiencing. Direct air carbon capture can work over longer time scales with enough GDP dedicated to the effort, but it will not break the fever so to speak. Lastly, full electrification of every possible activity is essential.

If you are a denier and want to dismiss this, I absolutely could not give a rats a$$, it is not for you. The debate was over decades ago. 

Everyone else, stop letting them live rent-free in your head. They don't argue in good faith, and only serve to slow your efforts which again, should be solutions oriented.

Thank you - 

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, AdMC said:

Hey guys while you squabble about whether or not climate change is real, the world is on fire...we need to be solutions oriented at this point. The ship has sailed on trying to convince the deniers. Maybe let's create a new subforum about climate change solutions.

At this point we'll need to come up with and implement geoengineering solutions to bring down the heat imbalance every square meter that our planet is experiencing. Direct air carbon capture can work over longer time scales with enough GDP dedicated to the effort, but it will not break the fever so to speak. Lastly, full electrification of every possible activity is essential.

If you are a denier and want to dismiss this, I absolutely could not give a rats a$$, it is not for you. The debate was over decades ago. 

Everyone else, stop letting them live rent-free in your head. They don't argue in good faith, and only serve to slow your efforts which again, should be solutions oriented.

Thank you - 

Start a thread, no one is stopping you.  

[TheClimateChanger]

31 minutes ago, AdMC said:

Hey guys while you squabble about whether or not climate change is real, the world is on fire...we need to be solutions oriented at this point. The ship has sailed on trying to convince the deniers. Maybe let's create a new subforum about climate change solutions.

At this point we'll need to come up with and implement geoengineering solutions to bring down the heat imbalance every square meter that our planet is experiencing. Direct air carbon capture can work over longer time scales with enough GDP dedicated to the effort, but it will not break the fever so to speak. Lastly, full electrification of every possible activity is essential.

If you are a denier and want to dismiss this, I absolutely could not give a rats a$$, it is not for you. The debate was over decades ago. 

Everyone else, stop letting them live rent-free in your head. They don't argue in good faith, and only serve to slow your efforts which again, should be solutions oriented.

Thank you - 

Hi @AdMC, this was my advice to President Trump several years ago:

Quote

This is one area I think Trump can do better. I really thought once he received a full intelligence briefing on the matter, he would act swiftly to prevent catastrophic climate change. I don’t know how familiar you are with the concept of near-term human extinction resulting primarily from climate changes, but amplified by myriad other environmental stressors. Long story short, we have precious little time to act as we are facing a catastrophe that could ultimately lead to a total societal collapse, if not outright human extinction (though perhaps a small population of humans could survive the cataclysm).

I know a lot of us were taken by the swift talking of former President Obama when he promised in his initial inaugural address to reverse the climb of the Oceans. Obviously, the opposite happened during his eight year term with rates of sea level rise not slowing, but accelerating. With that said, I place the bulk of the blame on the predominant neoliberal politico-economic regime that has spread in the post WW-2 era. Some of the blame, of course, lies directly on our complex, industrialized society (irrespective of politico-economics). But this is amplified greatly by the globalization of society that has wreaked havoc on our county.

Instead of locally sourcing our goods, we are shipping them over in massive container ships spewing unbelievable amounts of carbon! The global elites jet set around the world, thumbing their noses at those they perceive to be lesser than themselves. This to the tune of hundreds of thousands of flights daily, spewing unimaginable quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This same elite of rootless cosmopolitans (as Stalin put it) just cannot whet their appetite for travel as evidenced by the massive fleets of gigantic cruise ships sailing the ocean blue, again spewing unimaginable quantities of carbon into our precious atmosphere.

Compounding things, this globalized society hasn’t even benefited the average American. Instead, it’s made life miserable for the average American. Factories out of business, replaced with mindless service sector jobs that pay a fraction of the wages of the jobs being replaced. All the while our goods are produced by a new generation of slave labor in far off places that most Americans have never even heard of. And then shipped here in the method described in the previous paragraph. It’s a travesty!

I would put an end to globalization, with a phase out of all transnational flights (replaced with carbon-free airship/dirigible travel). I would move production back to America, and invest in a green new deal to phase out all fossil fuel and nuclear energy generation in as short a time as feasible. In addition, would invest greatly in modernizing our public transportation sector and make our highways as friendly to electric vehicle traffic with a goal to phase out they gasoline/diesel combustion engine in the next decade.

To accomplish this, I would nationalize all assets of fossil fuel companies in the US - including both domestic companies, as well as American assets of foreign corporations. In addition. I would cancel all loans granted by banking institutions to these fossil fuel companies so the assets would be taken free and clear of any existing liens. So this would include trillions of dollars of land and mineral rights - as well as equipment and machinery, intellectual property, etc. Honestly, with those resources, you might be able to get a feasible means of carbon capture and sequestration.

Additionally, I would enter into global agreements authorizing deployment of stratospheric aerosols delivered via military aircraft to cause an immediate drop in surface air temperature. These aerosols would be injected into the stratosphere mimicking the effects of volcanic activity and buying us needed time to address the ongoing climate catastrophe.

Finally, I would keep on the table the option of tactical missile strikes on foreign fossil fuel assets. We cannot allow China and India to continue building countless coal plants - not in 2020! We have already exceeded the carbon budget to ensure a livable climate for future generations. We need strong, powerful leadership that isn’t afraid to take real action to preserve a livable climate.

I think completion of the wall is a good thing as well, since many projections show the potential for tens, possibly hundreds, of millions of climate refugees. This will exceed our ability to maintain order especially in light of the increasing climate calamities we will be facing. A well secured border will be essential in an increasingly nationalized, localized and deglobalized world as the whole Ponzi scheme spirals out of control.

 

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Finally, I would keep on the table the option of tactical missile strikes on foreign fossil fuel assets. We cannot allow China and India to continue building countless coal plants - not in 2020! We have already exceeded the carbon budget to ensure a livable climate for future generations. We need strong, powerful leadership that isn’t afraid to take real action to preserve a livable climate.

That would send the world into a war, ending the world way faster than a few degrees warming.  

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

That would send the world into a war, ending the world way faster than a few degrees warming.  

It's more about projecting strength than anything. Sometimes the carrot on the stick doesn't work, and you have to be a little more aggressive.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

LOL!! you must have misread that article as it further supports the fact that man keeps chilling the past in this case with "tree ring data" to amplify the current warmer cycle.

Umm, no. Retaining the tree rings for that era makes the warming more pronounced. But even the very selection of start date was carefully crafted to minimize the warming. Take a look at this interesting Reddit post from user u/TuneGlum7903:

[TheClimateChanger]

Overall, an interesting post. Had to truncate the end due to lack of upload space. Must say I'm not sure what all the relevance to Trump is, some of these people just can't post anything without blabbing out Trump. Apparently, a Mormon Mitt, Nimrata Randhawa Haley, Dick-less Cheney, "Dubya" or Ronnie Reagan Republican party would have been so much better.  

[ChescoWx]

6 hours ago, AdMC said:

Hey guys while you squabble about whether or not climate change is real, the world is on fire...we need to be solutions oriented at this point. The ship has sailed on trying to convince the deniers. Maybe let's create a new subforum about climate change solutions.

At this point we'll need to come up with and implement geoengineering solutions to bring down the heat imbalance every square meter that our planet is experiencing. Direct air carbon capture can work over longer time scales with enough GDP dedicated to the effort, but it will not break the fever so to speak. Lastly, full electrification of every possible activity is essential.

If you are a denier and want to dismiss this, I absolutely could not give a rats a$$, it is not for you. The debate was over decades ago. 

Everyone else, stop letting them live rent-free in your head. They don't argue in good faith, and only serve to slow your efforts which again, should be solutions oriented.

Thank you - 

AdMC shows us how to tell they are a climate alarmists without telling us......World is on fire!!! Fire bad!! LOL!!!!!!

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Umm, no. Retaining the tree rings for that era makes the warming more pronounced. But even the very selection of start date was carefully crafted to minimize the warming. Take a look at this interesting Reddit post from user u/TuneGlum79

Umm no again CC - the below says we as always conveniently need to chill the past....is this clear? there is a most pronounced trend to cool the past!!

Scientists say that in the 19th century many of the thermometers and weather stations on which that average was based were not properly positioned or shielded from the sun, so it is possible that the world was cooler than the measurements reflect in Victorian times.

 

[roardog]

8 hours ago, FPizz said:

That would send the world into a war, ending the world way faster than a few degrees warming.  

I’ve read some dumb stuff online in the last 25 years or so that I’ve had access to the internet. I have to say though, that missile strikes on foreign fossil fuel assets to combat climate change might be the dumbest. Maybe the western pacific warm pool would diminish with nuclear winter. lol

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, roardog said:

I’ve read some dumb stuff online in the last 25 years or so that I’ve had access to the internet. I have to say though, that missile strikes on foreign fossil fuel assets to combat climate change might be the dumbest. Maybe the western pacific warm pool would diminish with nuclear winter. lol

I must have missed all the nukes flying when the NordStream 2 blew itself up. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I'm remaining open-minded about how much of the excess heat since 2023 can be connected to Hunga Tonga since it still hasn't been explained. The atmosphere is way too complex and Hunga Tonga was quite unique with regard to the volume of water vapor added to the stratosphere,

 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

 The swing from Nina to Nino leads to warming but not normally as early as the timing of the sudden sharp GW in 2023, which started about now. Why would AGW by itself cause such sharp GW? Its warming has been much more gradual. Thus I remain suspicious of other factors contributing, including Tonga. Perhaps El Nino had an earlier than normal influence. If so, why? RONI was still only neutral then though it had warmed from ~-1C in NDJ. But if it was, why hasn't it cooled back any yet? Maybe it really was mainly from AGW. I'm open minded.

[roardog]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The swing from Nina to Nino leads to warming but not normally as early as the timing of the sudden sharp GW in 2023, which started about now. Why would AGW by itself cause such sharp GW? Its warming has been much more gradual. Thus I remain suspicious of other factors contributing, including Tonga. Perhaps El Nino had an earlier than normal influence. If so, why? RONI was still only neutral then though it had warmed from ~-1C in NDJ. But if it was, why hasn't it cooled back any yet? Maybe it really was mainly from AGW. I'm open minded.

Anyone with critical thinking skills would agree with you. I guess somewhere I missed how Tonga throwing a massive amount of water vapor into the atmosphere can’t possibly have any impact. It seems like the timing would make sense too with how long it takes for the effects from volcanic eruptions to be felt globally. 

[donsutherland1]

Numerous cities in Texas and Florida are en route to their warmest May on record. The May temperatures will likely exceed the warmest June temperatures on record in both Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale. In fact, May 2024 will be so warm in Fort Lauderdale that May 2024 will likely rank as the third warmest July there.

[Bhs1975]

Numerous cities in Texas and Florida are en route to their warmest May on record. The May temperatures will likely exceed the warmest June temperatures on record in both Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale. In fact, May 2024 will be so warm in Fort Lauderdale that May 2024 will likely rank as the third warmest July there.

Looks like that's there new climate now.


.

[bluewave]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/05/25/mexico-city-water-day-zero/#:~:text=Supplying water to 22 million,significant sinking around the city.

MEXICO CITY — Raquel Campos’ water issues started in January, when her condo building’s manager sent residents a message saying that the city hadn’t delivered water to its cistern. Four days later, taps in the upscale residence went dry.

Campos has lived in the wealthy Polanco neighborhood for 18 years and said she has never experienced water issues like this. Her husband paid to shower at a nearby hotel and she called water delivery companies that were overwhelmed with a sudden deluge of requests from the neighborhood. The water in Campos’ building came back within a few days, but with much lower pressure. Water is now delivered about every two weeks. Each unit has paid to cover the cost, increasing their monthly condo expenses by 30 percent.

Water scarcity has long been an issue in Mexico City, with the brunt of the shortages happening in lower-income neighborhoods on the outskirts of the city center. But recently, residents in some of the city’s wealthier neighborhoods have also been running out of water as hot temperatures, low rainfall and poor infrastructure have converged to create a crisis across the sprawling metropolis.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Actually, just speaking from personal observation, it's the Sun. 

Does higher CO2 deplete the ozone to make the sun shine brighter to ground heat? 

[ChescoWx]

Sorry to the climate alarmists on this site.....you won't appreciate this info.....but only 4% of USHCN stations have reached 80°F so far this year, which year-to-date, is fourth lowest on record since 1895 behind 2011, 1995 and 1935, and is about the same was 1924. The peak year was not surprisingly 1934. The top five years are 1934, 1936, 1969, 1939 and 1914.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Sorry to the climate alarmists on this site.....you won't appreciate this info.....but only 4% of USHCN stations have reached 80°F so far this year, which year-to-date, is fourth lowest on record since 1895 behind 2011, 1995 and 1935, and is about the same was 1924. The peak year was not surprisingly 1934. The top five years are 1934, 1936, 1969, 1939 and 1914.

Far more meaningful for evaluating temperatures than Tony Heller's chart are the mean temperatures, mean low temperatures, and mean high temperatures. There is virtually no chance that 2024 will rank as the 4th coldest January-May on record when all the data is considered. Once the NOAA compiles the May data, the January-May 2024 period will likely rank as among the 10 warmest in terms of mean temperatures and mean low temperatures and among the 25 warmest in terms of mean high temperatures for the contiguous United States

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Sorry to the climate alarmists on this site.....you won't appreciate this info.....but only 4% of USHCN stations have reached 80°F so far this year, which year-to-date, is fourth lowest on record since 1895 behind 2011, 1995 and 1935, and is about the same was 1924. The peak year was not surprisingly 1934. The top five years are 1934, 1936, 1969, 1939 and 1914.

First of all, the digits are Tony's rankings, not percentages. In fact, it looks like 82-83 percent of stations have reached 80F. But more importantly, this is a meaningless statistic for a number of reasons. It's affected by the average elevation, latitude, urban character, etc. of the station mix. If there's a higher percentage of stations in high latitudes and/or higher elevations, you would expect a lower percentage to have recorded an 80F day before the end of May [also, I doubt all of May 2024 has been included in the data -- the month is just now ending]. Further, it's affected by equipment changes. It's well established that a lot of the automated stations report somewhat lower maxima than traditional LiG thermometers housed in a shelter.

Even ignoring all this, it's not really meaningful. It looks like pretty much every year at least 80 percent of stations have reached 80F by May 31. There's only about 15 percent or so of stations that vary in a given year - many of which are probably in the same general area [somewhere in the northern US]. Many of these places probably don't see 80+ until late in the spring, so all it would take is a cool spell in May to keep them from reaching that temperature. Meanwhile, the rest of the country could be baking... and even the places that fail to reach 80F might have been way above normal for the majority of the year.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, just speaking from personal observation, it's the Sun. 

Does higher CO2 deplete the ozone to make the sun shine brighter to ground heat? 

Here's my little climate tidbit of the day. We can't even imagine how cold it used to be. There was so much ice in the upper lakes following the absolutely frigid winter and spring of 1836-1837, that the Saint Clair River closed to navigation in June as it was flowing downstream.

Quote

On June 1, 1837, the St. Clair River between Lake Huron and Lake Saint Clair closed up with ice. The schooner New York became caught in the ice at Recors Point and was carried downstream. In the same year, ice was harvested from the river until July 4th.

 

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually, just speaking from personal observation, it's the Sun. 

Does higher CO2 deplete the ozone to make the sun shine brighter to ground heat? 

Yes it is the sun, as expected when GHG increase. In a warming world outgoing infrared radiation increases but GHG are slowing the increase so outgoing radiation can't keep up with increased absorbed solar. Why is absorbed solar increasing? - less snow and ice and fewer clouds on average as the world warms, supplemented by reduced air pollution which dims the sun. Currently there is much more energy coming into the climate system than going out; 90% of which goes into the oceans. Per the chart, absorbed solar has gone up by roughly 1% in the past 15 years. That is equivalent to turning up the sun by 1%. No wonder it is getting warmer.

 

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Far more meaningful for evaluating temperatures than Tony Heller's chart are the mean temperatures, mean low temperatures, and mean high temperatures. There is virtually no chance that 2024 will rank as the 4th coldest January-May on record when all the data is considered. Once the NOAA compiles the May data, the January-May 2024 period will likely rank as among the 10 warmest in terms of mean temperatures and mean low temperatures and among the 25 warmest in terms of mean high temperatures for the contiguous United States

Per a recent Brian Brettschneider tweet, winter was the warmest ever in the US and Spring was 5'th warmest through May 29.