Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Sorry Paul, your handwaving isn't convincing, The three stations averaged (Glenmoore, Honey Brook and Coatesville 2W) have a clear uptrend, supporting my previous statement. The high elevation stations the coop data doesn't support the results you obtain. We also have the data from Phoenixville and West Chester that show 100+ year uptrends.

I didn't discuss Coatesville 1SW, as its not a high elevation station, but now that you have brought it up. The high number of 90F days in the early portion of its record are not supported by other coop sites. A good argument for bias correction.

 

[Bhs1975]

Apparently it is difficult for you to detect bias in your own analysis.  The station additions after 2000 have fewer 90F days than the stations that make up your network before 2000 (see Table below). That fact biases the results.  Its easy to get a rough estimate of the impact of station mix change by holding 90F days constant at each stations average level for each year the station was active. If there was no station mix bias you would get a flat trend with time since each station is being held constant.
Per chart below, station mix changes after 2000 have a large impact. The changes in station mix alone would drop the number of 90F days from around 15 between the 1950s and 1990s to a little over 8 in the 2020s. As I expected, the changing station mix is driving your results not climate trends. You should repeat this analysis with the low elevation stations. Just looking at the low elevation station results for 2023, the same station mix problem appears to be present.
Of course stations are always changing as old ones drop out and new ones start up. NOAA and other experts have developed methods to account for station mix changes. If you don't employ the proper methods your results will be biased. Doubly important to follow proven methods if you aren't aware of your own bias.
 

He wants to create his own narrative.


.

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, chubbs said:

Sorry Paul, your handwaving isn't convincing, The three stations averaged (Glenmoore, Honey Brook and Coatesville 2W) have a clear uptrend, supporting my previous statement. The high elevation stations the coop data doesn't support the results you obtain.

I didn't discuss Coatesville 1SW, as its not a high elevation station, but now that you have brought it up. The high number of 90F days in the early portion of its record are not supported by other coop sites. A good argument for bias correction.

I guess if you think an average of 16.6 days in the 1950's dropping to 13.7 in the 2000's is an uptrend not much we can talk about. The 2010's only have complete Glenmoore data....

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

yeah, coke 'n' taco

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

La Puerta, TX also reached 116.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

La Puerta, TX also reached 116.

why is it so cold up here? you'd think with heat that strong it would push its way up here?

[roardog]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so cold up here? you'd think with heat that strong it would push its way up here?

Probably because it’s like 1800 miles from you. lol

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Probably because it’s like 1800 miles from you. lol

ugh yeah I just wish we could at least have normal temps and sunshine though lol

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so cold up here? you'd think with heat that strong it would push its way up here?

The persistent blockiness has precluded its advance. There are some hints that the blocking could finally break down for good in the very long range (late May or early June timeframe).

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The persistent blockiness has precluded its advance. There are some hints that the blocking could finally break down for good in the very long range (late May or early June timeframe).

and hopefully the clouds break in time for a historic Northern Lights display tonight!

[bluewave]

On 5/9/2024 at 1:42 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know if I'd agree that there's been a substantial change in the UHI in Philadelphia. The population was over 1 million by 1890, and over 2 million by 1950.

Yeah, the rise in minimum temperatures at the airport is nearly identical to the one in Mt Holly at the NWS forecast office over the last 30 years. The population at Mt. Holly has remained nearly steady at 10k as the population in Philadelphia has held steady around 1.5 million. So it doesn’t appear that the Philadelphia UHI intensity has changed much in 30 years. So all the warming over the last 30 years is the result of a steadily warming climate and not a local increase in UHI intensity.
 

Philadelphia International Airport 30yr minimum temperature rise +2.6°F.
 

Mt.Holly NWS WFO 30 year minimum temperature rise +2.8°F

[ChescoWx]

Below is an analysis of 90 degree days at 8 airports across Eastern and East Central PA. The yellow highlights decades that the number of 90 degree days declined at that location. We can clearly see that all locations have shown cyclical variations with the 2000's seeing 5 of 6 stations not starting obs in the 2000's with declining 90 degree days vs the 1990's. The 2010's saw increases at all locations....the 2020's are incomplete but the trend so far this decade has been a split with more 90 degree days at 5 airports and less at 3.

[forkyfork]

watching you double down after you repeatedly get your ass handed to you is hilarious 

[TheClimateChanger]

Why do so many people on here act as though it's been a chilly spring? It's been unbelievably hot.

DCA

By contrast, 7 of 19 years from 1874 to 1892 (inclusive) had mean temperatures roughly 10F or more cooler than this spring. That would have been fairly typical for late 19th century Washington - nearly 2 out of 5 years.

To get similar conditions in the year of our Lord, 2024, one would have to teleport to Syracuse, New York.

Even climbing nearly 2,000 feet and going to where literally noone lives [pop density of Randolph County is 27/square mile] is not enough. The mean of 52.5F at Elkins, West Virginia, is warmer than 84 of 153 years of record in DC.

The data does not lie. This is an unbelievably hot spring. I'm not even exaggerating. It's literally an unbelievably hot spring, with hardly any parallel in record history prior to 2010. If you foisted spring of 2024 on an unsuspecting 19th century population, they would likely believe the world was about to end because (1) it was so far outside the bounds of normality; and (2) they were ignorant. Yet now it's considered chilly. Can someone explain this phenomenon to me? 

[TheClimateChanger]

Looking at the data, the only pre-21st century year with a similar spring appears to be 1921. I always laugh when Tony Heller posts stories from 1921 - he does it very frequently. I don't know what point he is trying to make. Pretty much every year is as warm or warmer than 1921 these days. The same weather in 2024 would probably be dismissed as chilly. Yet back then it was enough to do multiple page spreads about the "millions of heat deaths." By the same standard, every single year needs to have multiple spreads of coverage in the 21st century. But our derelict media doesn't do this anymore. And people like Tony will complain about media hype when they do cover a weather event these days, without one lick of irony.

[Typhoon Tip]

Only because the ad nauseum state of the Cheshire PA nattering has become too grotesque at this point.  Jesus Christ!   One would wish to unleash the entire payload of tech history's malware unto American Forums ... just for the prospect of annihilating its utter futility (can't penetrate certain posters with objective based reasoning ) once and for all.  Fuck it if we can escape the 'always repeating the same behavior expecting a different result' insanity once and for all. 

Just a diversion for a moment - although, there is some indirect connection to Climate, because the innovation curve of human history is responsible for both future states.

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-ai-blame-failure-contact-alien.html

Many of the early pages of this vast thread we did discuss the Fermi Paradox stuff, some of us offering our own dystopian projections of the world's future - based in no small part on human innovation outpacing the design of evolution. 

It's like that one aspect-attribute of our sentience was a mutation.  One that is not girded to by other advancing aspect that constrain the ambition to leap - I remember turning phrases precisely along that same principle, and the content of the above article is a marvelous example. 

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking at the data, the only pre-21st century year with a similar spring appears to be 1921. I always laugh when Tony Heller posts stories from 1921 - he does it very frequently. I don't know what point he is trying to make. Pretty much every year is as warm or warmer than 1921 these days. The same weather in 2024 would probably be dismissed as chilly. Yet back then it was enough to do multiple page spreads about the "millions of heat deaths." By the same standard, every single year needs to have multiple spreads of coverage in the 21st century. But our derelict media doesn't do this anymore. And people like Tony will complain about media hype when they do cover a weather event these days, without one lick of irony.

Here is one recent example of Tony cherry-picking 1921. My question if millions died in 1921's "record heat wave" and every recent year has been much hotter, how many tens of millions of climate deaths are they hiding each and every year? One might say "air conditioning" but many of the world's poorest regions are some of the hottest places on earth, and the global population has exploded since then. There must be tens of millions of deaths being swept under the table or the 1921 reporting was incorrect.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Why do so many people on here act as though it's been a chilly spring? It's been unbelievably hot.

DCA

By contrast, 7 of 19 years from 1874 to 1892 (inclusive) had mean temperatures roughly 10F or more cooler than this spring. That would have been fairly typical for late 19th century Washington - nearly 2 out of 5 years.

To get similar conditions in the year of our Lord, 2024, one would have to teleport to Syracuse, New York.

Even climbing nearly 2,000 feet and going to where literally noone lives [pop density of Randolph County is 27/square mile] is not enough. The mean of 52.5F at Elkins, West Virginia, is warmer than 84 of 153 years of record in DC.

The data does not lie. This is an unbelievably hot spring. I'm not even exaggerating. It's literally an unbelievably hot spring, with hardly any parallel in record history prior to 2010. If you foisted spring of 2024 on an unsuspecting 19th century population, they would likely believe the world was about to end because (1) it was so far outside the bounds of normality; and (2) they were ignorant. Yet now it's considered chilly. Can someone explain this phenomenon to me? 

I would love it to be hot but it's not been hot.

I measure heat by number of 90 degree days.  I've had my heat running this entire month and it really sucks.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking at the data, the only pre-21st century year with a similar spring appears to be 1921. I always laugh when Tony Heller posts stories from 1921 - he does it very frequently. I don't know what point he is trying to make. Pretty much every year is as warm or warmer than 1921 these days. The same weather in 2024 would probably be dismissed as chilly. Yet back then it was enough to do multiple page spreads about the "millions of heat deaths." By the same standard, every single year needs to have multiple spreads of coverage in the 21st century. But our derelict media doesn't do this anymore. And people like Tony will complain about media hype when they do cover a weather event these days, without one lick of irony.

I lived through 1991 it was MUCH hotter than this.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Why do so many people on here act as though it's been a chilly spring? It's been unbelievably hot.

DCA

By contrast, 7 of 19 years from 1874 to 1892 (inclusive) had mean temperatures roughly 10F or more cooler than this spring. That would have been fairly typical for late 19th century Washington - nearly 2 out of 5 years.

To get similar conditions in the year of our Lord, 2024, one would have to teleport to Syracuse, New York.

Even climbing nearly 2,000 feet and going to where literally noone lives [pop density of Randolph County is 27/square mile] is not enough. The mean of 52.5F at Elkins, West Virginia, is warmer than 84 of 153 years of record in DC.

The data does not lie. This is an unbelievably hot spring. I'm not even exaggerating. It's literally an unbelievably hot spring, with hardly any parallel in record history prior to 2010. If you foisted spring of 2024 on an unsuspecting 19th century population, they would likely believe the world was about to end because (1) it was so far outside the bounds of normality; and (2) they were ignorant. Yet now it's considered chilly. Can someone explain this phenomenon to me? 

Bro heat is measured by number of 90 degree days, average temperature means nothing.

I lived through 1991 it was MUCH hotter than this-- I haven't even turned my heating off yet!

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Only because the ad nauseum state of the Cheshire PA nattering has become too grotesque at this point.  Jesus Christ!   One would wish to unleash the entire payload of tech history's malware unto American Forums ... just for the prospect of annihilating its utter futility (can't penetrate certain posters with objective based reasoning ) once and for all.  Fuck it if we can escape the 'always repeating the same behavior expecting a different result' insanity once and for all. 

Just a diversion for a moment - although, there is some indirect connection to Climate, because the innovation curve of human history is responsible for both future states.

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-ai-blame-failure-contact-alien.html

Many of the early pages of this vast thread we did discuss the Fermi Paradox stuff, some of us offering our own dystopian projections of the world's future - based in no small part on human innovation outpacing the design of evolution. 

It's like that one aspect-attribute of our sentience was a mutation.  One that is not girded to by other advancing aspect that constrain the ambition to leap - I remember turning phrases precisely along that same principle, and the content of the above article is a marvelous example. 

Thanks for this article, John, it runs parallel to my thinking.

 

[chubbs]

 

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I would love it to be hot but it's not been hot.

I measure heat by number of 90 degree days.  I've had my heat running this entire month and it really sucks.

 

Spring temp ranking in the Northeast thru Sunday. Warmest ever in WPa and WV, mainly top 5 elsewhere.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Spring temp ranking in the Northeast thru Sunday. Warmest ever in WPa and WV, mainly top 5 elsewhere.

Specifically for NYC and Long Island, it seems to be only slightly above normal (less than 1 degree F above normal.)

*I mean for May.  March and April were much warmer of course.

Spring 2023 was much warmer here though.... and the Spring of record here is 1991 when we had 8 90 degree days before June even started.  1983, 1991, 1993 and 2010 were the hottest years on record here by number of 90 degree days.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Spring temp ranking in the Northeast thru Sunday. Warmest ever in WPa and WV, mainly top 5 elsewhere.

Bradford, PA continues to be one if the fastest warming parts of the state. The minimums have risen +3.5° since 1994 and the maximums at +3.2°. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

There's some kind of strange disconnect going on between the sensible weather - what society feels on skin and experiences day-to-day - vs the objective data, from which those sort of products are supposedly based upon.

The sensible weather and the empirical data don't always couple, no.  That's why a 50 F day in January is luxurious, but that same temperature in July is depressing.  But I'm not talking about mere acclimation... 

Yes it's ranking on short list as far as springs go, but I had car top frost if not frost in the lawn, all the way into early May.  Years that did not rank this warm or even in the top 10 in my life did not do that.  When it is not frosting, the high temperatures were below normal, while the lows were elevated - more commonly than wanted.  Another oddity.  The diurnal total/the two ends, ends up above normal, but there's no chance that will be experiential.

I don't doubt the objective data - that's not the point I'm making.  But the distribution of it has been rather odd and not lending favorably to common experience.  I find that interesting.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Bradford, PA continues to be one if the fastest warming parts of the state. The minimums have risen +3.5° since 1994 and the maximums at +3.2°. 
 

 

the farther north you get and the further away from the ocean, the warmer it is.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's some kind of strange disconnect going on between the sensible weather - what society feels on skin and experiences day-to-day - vs the objective data, from which those sort of products are supposedly based upon.

The sensible weather and the empirical data don't always couple, no.  That's why a 50 F day in January is luxurious, but that same temperature in July is depressing.  But I'm not talking about mere acclimation... 

Yes it's ranking on short list as far as springs go, but I had car top frost if not frost in the lawn, all the way into early May.  Years that did not rank this warm or even in the top 10 in my life did not do that.  When it is not frosting, the high temperatures were below normal, while the lows were elevated - more commonly than wanted.  Another oddity.  The diurnal total/the two ends, ends up above normal, but there's no chance that will be experiential.

I don't doubt the objective data - that's not the point I'm making.  But the distribution of it has been rather odd and not lending favorably to common experience.  I find that interesting.

Most of this is not due to any sort of "strange disconnect" but due to people's perception of what is normal being warped. It used to be perfectly normal for Lake Erie to be covered in ice (or at least substantial ice coverage) at Buffalo, New York, well into May. This year, the water temperature is 52F, one shy of the record for the date set in 2012 & 2000.

Source: Lake Erie May Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov)

Just scanning through this, you can see ice [as signified by underlying water at the freezing point] was present through at least May 10, 1928; May 1, 1930; May 16, 1936; May 6, 1939; May 10, 1940; May 12, 1943; May 15, 1947 [thermometer appears to be reading 1F warm this year]; May 9, 1959; May 11, 1963; May 12, 1965; May 23, 1971; May 2, 1972; May 12, 1978; May 7, 1982; May 2, 1996; and May 1, 2014. In this data, we can see the first shift to a new climate regime following the 1982-1983 Super El Nino event. While prior to that El Nino event, ice was commonplace in the month of May, it is now exceptionally rare. Ice past the middle of May, as occurred in 1936 & 1971, is almost unfathomable today. I mean 2014 was regarded as exceptionally cold, but came nowhere near reproducing that effect.

We can substantial ice was present on the east end of Lake Erie deep into May 1936, while some icebergs remained through May 31, 1936. This during the so-called hottest summer on record. Funny how we're told how hot it was in the 1930s & 1940s, yet that heat doesn't show up in water.