Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[donsutherland1]

Four photos from the September 17, 2023 climate change march in New York City.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Saltwater intrusion a significant concern for the New Orleans area, as rising sea levels and severe drought are combining to enable the seawater to spread farther inland along the Mississippi.

Of note, the gage level upstream at Memphis has fallen to -10.18 feet, and was as low as -10.29 feet earlier today (see graphic below). The forecast takes the level to -10.90 feet by October 10. This would exceed the low water record of -10.81 feet set last October. Previously, the lowest observed level was -10.70 feet, set in July 1988.

 

 

 

[chubbs]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/17/2023 at 8:53 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Four photos from the September 17, 2023 climate change march in New York City.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

This is interesting. Canadian wildfire smoke has tracked all the way south mostly off the eastern seaboard into South Florida. It's actually quite thick, with unhealthy AQI and visibilities reduced to 2-3 miles in spots.

 

[donsutherland1]

With global temperatures continuing to set records and the impacts of climate change becoming more prominent, there has been increased news coverage. Climate change deniers are trying to attack the stories, often through asking innocent-looking but dishonest and bad faith questions. Below is one example where, even if one had only minimal research skills, one could quickly find the answer to the question that was raised.

[donsutherland1]

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, Miami has had an increase of 40 90-degree or above days. This year has seen a record number of 90 or above through 95 or above days. Climate change is leading to warming air temperatures and more frequent marine heatwaves, both of which impact Miami.

[Eskimo Joe]

It's certainly an uphill battle in the US with decision makers like this in office.

 

[rclab]

On 10/14/2023 at 1:56 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, Miami has had an increase of 40 90-degree or above days. This year has seen a record number of 90 or above through 95 or above days. Climate change is leading to warming air temperatures and more frequent marine heatwaves, both of which impact Miami.

 

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's certainly an uphill battle in the US with decision makers like this in office.

 

Good evening Don, EJ. I read a post in the New England sub forum referring to the increasing average length of first to last freeze in Boston. D I T asked the non jocular speculative question will we see the first frost free year in our lifetime. I thought, sadly, living in NYC, that the Big Baked Apple will likely do it first. Stay well, as always ….

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good evening Don, EJ. I read a post in the New England sub forum referring to the increasing average length of first to last freeze in Boston. D I T asked the non jocular speculative question will we see the first frost free year in our lifetime. I thought, sadly, living in NYC, that the Big Baked Apple will likely do it first. Stay well, as always ….

I doubt that NYC will have a frost-free winter through the current century absent some anomalous event that amplifies climate change.  There will likely be more winters where the coldest temperature stays in the 20s. I also think that by the mid-2030s, the 30-year average snowfall at Central Park will fall toward or perhaps below 20" based on the rising temperatures and warming oceans.

Until recently, New York City's decadal mean winter temperatures had been running below the RCP 4.5 projections. The decadal extremes (coldest and warmest winters for the 10-year period in question) fell within the modeled projections. Recently, the decadal winter averages have been running somewhat warmer than the RCP 4.5 projections. All in all, the climate model projections have been reasonably skillful.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I doubt that NYC will have a frost-free winter through the current century absent some anomalous event that amplifies climate change.  There will likely be more winters where the coldest temperature stays in the 20s. I also think that by the mid-2030s, the 30-year average snowfall at Central Park will fall toward or perhaps below 20" based on the rising temperatures and warming oceans.

Until recently, New York City's decadal mean winter temperatures had been running below the RCP 4.5 projections. The decadal extremes (coldest and warmest winters for the 10-year period in question) fell within the modeled projections. Recently, the decadal winter averages have been running somewhat warmer than the RCP 4.5 projections. All in all, the climate model projections have been reasonably skillful.

Yes a long way from frost free; but for winter temperature Boston has become New York and New York is well on the way to Richmond.

                       1951-1980    2014-2023        

Boston                 31.7               33.7

New York CTP    33.8               37.1

Richmond  Apt   38.4                41.9

[Typhoon Tip]

The thing that's funny about that ...  I keep reading these seasonal outlooks, replete with climate colonoscopies ... and they're so elaborately written with all these charts and graphs and inference that no one at NASA would ever bother with.. .Yet, through all that dizzying intellect, no one ever mentions the fact that the climate bands are actively moving N up the eastern side of North America. 

I don't sense this is even factored into most I've seen.  It seems like people engage in constructing these outlooks to fantasize, or ... create plausibility that offsets/adds something back to whatever the baseline patently shows.

I guess the problem is just the same as it is in any form of discussion that utilizes method in mass media.  It's selling information ... people popularize people who placate/enable their personal belief systems, wants and dreams.  That's more what the author's are after.  I'm digressing ( I know) but wow, what a moral scaffolding we've become, huh.

Once we became a presentation based artful new agency -built society, very honest news reporting or reality itself, were doomed.

[LibertyBell]

On 9/28/2023 at 11:01 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

 

Since when is being an activist  a bad thing?

We have most of the freedoms we have because of activism, these fools make excuses for corrupt corporation but their dense minds don't realize if it wasn't for activists they would be living in authoritarian regimes run by the ultrarich corporations.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/17/2023 at 7:39 AM, chubbs said:

Yes a long way from frost free; but for winter temperature Boston has become New York and New York is well on the way to Richmond.

                       1951-1980    2014-2023        

Boston                 31.7               33.7

New York CTP    33.8               37.1

Richmond  Apt   38.4                41.9

Richmond?  NYC and JFK are much more like Norfolk now.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Richmond?  NYC and JFK are much more like Norfolk now.

 

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery -

But, facts are facts ...

That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet.  

Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold.  And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ...

(I'm being snarky little).

But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles?   I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. 

Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression.  It's also noted.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery -

But, facts are facts ...

That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet.  

Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold.  And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ...

(I'm being snarky little).

But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles?   I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. 

Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression.  It's also noted.

 

The thing I like about the Norfolk to JFK comparison though is "subtropical climate" plus we seem to have reached one of Norfolk's dubious records-- which is to say that JFK is now the only other place located on the east coast plain that has experienced a winter with a 40 degree average and 40 inches of seasonal snowfall in the same winter (that was 2015-16 with the 30" HECS in the middle of a mild winter lol.)

There also seems to be a lot of plant and insect life here that belongs way down south.....

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery -

But, facts are facts ...

That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet.  

Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold.  And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ...

(I'm being snarky little).

But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles?   I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. 

Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression.  It's also noted.

 

John did you know of the plans to start spraying SO2 aerosols into the atmosphere every year starting in 2030?  They think they can stop about 2% of solar insolation that way and perhaps lower temps by about 2C....but it has to be done yearly.  It seems to be getting a lot of traction and some companies are already experimenting with it.  It's said to be fairly inexpensive and what I read indicated that multiple nations would employ this geoengineering even though computer simulations show some side effects (moving rainfall patterns including monsoons further south for example.)

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery -

But, facts are facts ...

That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet.  

Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold.  And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ...

(I'm being snarky little).

But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles?   I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. 

Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression.  It's also noted.

 

Looks like the extremely warm anomalies are actually coming from north to south (maybe from the polar region?)  Vermont for example has already warmed by over 5 degrees on average during the winter?

The lobster season in Maine is endangered too, those babies are migrating further north into the Maritimes now!  They were once near Long Island, migrated to Maine and now they're headed for Canada!

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Since when is being an activist  a bad thing?

We have most of the freedoms we have because of activism, these fools make excuses for corrupt corporation but their dense minds don't realize if it wasn't for activists they would be living in authoritarian regimes run by the ultrarich corporations.

Well, I think Ms. LaDuke was saying access to clean water should be a right, not something that we need to push for. And corporations should be viewed as terrorists for infringing on that right by dumping chemicals into the water.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the extremely warm anomalies are actually coming from north to south (maybe from the polar region?)  Vermont for example has already warmed by over 5 degrees on average during the winter?

The lobster season in Maine is endangered too, those babies are migrating further north into the Maritimes now!  They were once near Long Island, migrated to Maine and now they're headed for Canada!

 

Hello Liberty, I pray all is well with you. In college, over 55 years ago, a group of us were moaning at the decline of popular fish like the porgy, flounder, whiting, sheepshead. A fellow in the group mentioned he was a diver and said  lobster's were in the channel leading into Sheepshead Bay, he mentioned some were a good size. I doubt you would find them today. Stay well, Liberty, as always ….

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I think Ms. LaDuke was saying access to clean water should be a right, not something that we need to push for. And corporations should be viewed as terrorists for infringing on that right by dumping chemicals into the water.

Definitely-- they shouldn't be allowed to dump anything.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, rclab said:

Hello Liberty, I pray all is well with you. In college, over 55 years ago, a group of us were moaning at the decline of popular fish like the porgy, flounder, whiting, sheepshead. A fellow in the group mentioned he was a diver and said  lobster's were in the channel leading into Sheepshead Bay, he mentioned some were a good size. I doubt you would find them today. Stay well, Liberty, as always ….

I grew up near Sheepshead Bay!  I miss it!

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/18/2023 at 8:27 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I think Ms. LaDuke was saying access to clean water should be a right, not something that we need to push for. And corporations should be viewed as terrorists for infringing on that right by dumping chemicals into the water.

sometimes you have to sue people to get things done and fixed and you have to sue companies that pollute the environment

suing is our last line of defense against bad people and corrupt politicians and companies

 lawsuits are necessary (see above) to go after bad people, evil corporations and the like, they are the final check on corruption

the best way to stop greed is to take away their money

 there are reasons for it.... my dad slipped and fell because of a crack in the side walk and he was never the same again (hit his head on the concrete and had fluid in his brain) and started losing his memory after that

sometimes you have to sue people to get things done and fixed and you have to sue companies that pollute the environment

suing is our last line of defense against bad people and corrupt politicians and companies

[LibertyBell]

remember DuPont dumping PFOA into the water and the only way we stopped them was with a multibillion dollar lawsuit

same thing with Monsanto and Roundup and nonhodgkins' lymphoma

[donsutherland1]

Another climate change denial claim aimed at discrediting climate research and its findings is below. It lacks credibility.

Apparently, the author of the tweet never bothered to read the paper. The paper's explanation first appears in the second paragraph under the heading "Main." If one read that paragraph, one would understand that the paper made no claim that floating ice shelves are directly raising the sea-level. It observed that their melting is making it easier for upstream glaciers to flow towards the ocean. Those upstream glaciers—part of Antarctica’s ice sheet—is what is raising the sea-level.

People can read the paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x

Science is not a "game" where one reacts reflexively to research without bothering to actually examine the content. Science is a rational and thoughtful undertaking.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

There is an effort to try to discount any link beween Otis' rapid intensification and climate change, even as the literature increasingly shows that the warming climate is leading to an increase in rapid intensification cases.

Worse, the efforts are deceptive.

Look more closely at the map. Notice the dates.

The SSTAs are not from the time when Otis approached and made landfall (October 24-25), but from the August 26-September 1, 2023 period.

Thus, the argument rests on obsolete information. It is not an evidence-based argument. It is misleading, as it implies that the data is from the relevant timeframe when, in fact, it is not.

[Bhs1975]

Looks like we are going to commit climate suicide and the only solution is collapse which would set us back to before the industrial revolution.

[Bhs1975]

The disasters will become so catastrophic and numerous that funds will run out for recovery and folks will mass migrate to less affected areas which will collapse the system. Humans will become nomadic again.