Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Don't be a sucker - Below is the average latitude of the stations used to make the "real" plot above.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08/usa-temperature-can-i-sucker-you/

 

 

Among other aspects of deception ... and:

The nocturnal temperatures are just as crucial in the weight of a seasonal anomaly total.  In the summers, those actually tend to be more positive relative to average inherited climate minimums, than do the day time high temperature departures relative to climate for those.

As has been outlined in climate reports spanning the last 10 years out of IPCC etc... nocturnal temperatures have actually been responsible for the greatest departures, probably owning to the physics of specific heat in H20.  It is over 4X's greater in capacitance for thermal density than sere air - which this later is never going to be possible on Earth. But the point is, more WV is going to elevate the low temperatures more so than less WV, which to global warming concern means ... we are storing more WV in the air.

Morning temperatures than have 'higher launch' points, such that as the solar crest sweeps across the land, there can be a synergistic feed-back where the starting point helps ( think momentum from the previous day ....), send the temp soaring, reaching temperatures that seem to exceed the leading parametric/synoptic indicators.  This can mix into the lower tropospheric circulation modes where it is then circulated to other regions, like the Pacific NW, that then have unique topographies that feed-back positively even more.  These sort of nuanced, 'rogue' event heat waves then surpass the 'standard seasonal' heat waves.  Exactly what we saw in the Pac NW, also precisely what the previoius IPCC report meant when they mentioned the 'synergistic heat wave effect.'

This language and these facets are not available to the minds of many deniers?  no fault to them - some can't get it, because some simply lack the ability to do so.  Unfortunately, the physics of GW doesn't play compassionate forgiveness to stupidity, either.  

part of the catch-22 ... Human ingenuity has parlayed to 7.5+ billion population that drags along a population quota too weighty to stop in a lot of ways.  They'll follow suit when they stop eating and get hungry, by then, ...is it too late?

I have friends at M.I.T. and N.E. University, and they agree - the GW crisis and climate change is as much a sociological problem as it is a geophysical one. 

 

[ChescoWx]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay, is there a point being made here - LOL

 

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

From Tony Heller, climate denier. Well known for misleading charts.

Then please show the correct non-"misleading" charts that refute these....thanks!

[ChescoWx]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, especially after seeing the extremely anomalous western heat this year, I find it laughable.

 

Like anomolus heat in the west has anything to do with worldwide climate change - I find laughable!

[ChescoWx]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

Don't be a sucker - Below is the average latitude of the stations used to make the "real" plot above.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08/usa-temperature-can-i-sucker-you/

 

Charlie that is a fake news site from 2018 "kids lives matter" ....let's come up with some real data

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Like anomolus heat in the west has anything to do with worldwide climate change - I find laughable!

like 95 degree high temps in the CONUS has anything to do with WORLDWIDE climate change - I find it hilarious!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Among other aspects of deception ... and:

The nocturnal temperatures are just as crucial in the weight of a seasonal anomaly total.  In the summers, those actually tend to be more positive relative to average inherited climate minimums, than do the day time high temperature departures relative to climate for those.

As has been outlined in climate reports spanning the last 10 years out of IPCC etc... nocturnal temperatures have actually been responsible for the greatest departures, probably owning to the physics of specific heat in H20.  It is over 4X's greater in capacitance for thermal density than sere air - which this later is never going to be possible on Earth. But the point is, more WV is going to elevate the low temperatures more so than less WV, which to global warming concern means ... we are storing more WV in the air.

Morning temperatures than have 'higher launch' points, such that as the solar crest sweeps across the land, there can be a synergistic feed-back where the starting point helps ( think momentum from the previous day ....), send the temp soaring, reaching temperatures that seem to exceed the leading parametric/synoptic indicators.  This can mix into the lower tropospheric circulation modes where it is then circulated to other regions, like the Pacific NW, that then have unique topographies that feed-back positively even more.  These sort of nuanced, 'rogue' event heat waves then surpass the 'standard seasonal' heat waves.  Exactly what we saw in the Pac NW, also precisely what the previoius IPCC report meant when they mentioned the 'synergistic heat wave effect.'

This language and these facets are not available to the minds of many deniers?  no fault to them - some can't get it, because some simply lack the ability to do so.  Unfortunately, the physics of GW doesn't play compassionate forgiveness to stupidity, either.  

part of the catch-22 ... Human ingenuity has parlayed to 7.5+ billion population that drags along a population quota too weighty to stop in a lot of ways.  They'll follow suit when they stop eating and get hungry, by then, ...is it too late?

I have friends at M.I.T. and N.E. University, and they agree - the GW crisis and climate change is as much a sociological problem as it is a geophysical one. 

 

yes unfortunately.  and higher humidity also due to climate change tends to suppress high temps while boosting mins, have seen that all too often here on the east coast

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There are three forms of climate deniers from my experience in dealing with them:

-- can't believe it; the specter is too grand to face; the complexities, too much and is mentally untenable, so it can't be true when combining all these predicates.

-- morally feckless at best, but probably just a form of evading psychosis using either lies to cover fact, or deliberate misrepresentation of small subsets that strategically belies the surrounding reality, all of which so as to not have to face an unsettling truth - there is varied and textured reasons for not wanting to face that reality. 

-- healthy skepticism; this form of denier is rarefying as the evidence/empirical signs of the times forces their hand.  I don't personally have a problem with this group. In a time of media sensationalism run amok - from a bully pulpit that has NO morality - we need these along the way.

 

Not sure why your post triggered me to want to outline this way... but perhaps it is because that charts does strike me as that second bullet point agenda.

In the end, people deny because the can.  Again again again...the specter of CC is a slow moving monster, so slow in fact that it does not register to the observer, until the observer has to forcibly be acknowledging.  That, unfortunately, is a destiny that nears the grave.

it may not be that slow, I've noticed a pretty obvious change in climate between the 80s and this past decade.  I mean only an idiot wouldn't notice how long the allergy season has gotten and the change in rainfall patterns and growing season, etc.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

My solar panels are only 8 years old, but the technology is already considered old and they are only producing about 80% of what they once were. It is annoying.  Thankfully the prior owner of my house put them on, so I didn't have to pay anything since he paid the bulk up front.  68 panels.  

the new gen of solar panels are going to actually be built right into house paint.

[chubbs]

50 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Charlie that is a fake news site from 2018 "kids lives matter" ....let's come up with some real data

LOL - Tamino is a mathematician with one of the best climate blogs, almost entirely data analysis. Sad when sound data analysis is fake news. As described in the article Heller's US temperature charts are bogus.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

 

Then please show the correct non-"misleading" charts that refute these....thanks!

Chill

I asked a simple question: what was your point in making that post-I’ll give you another chance, do you have one. 
 

I wasn’t seeking conflict; it looks like it’s just a chart

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it may not be that slow, I've noticed a pretty obvious change in climate between the 80s and this past decade.  I mean only an idiot wouldn't notice how long the allergy season has gotten and the change in rainfall patterns and growing season, etc.

 

Well … “slow” in that context doesn’t just mean rate - kind of a loaded adjective I suppose. 

It’s slow enough to quell urgency. It’s part of the capacitance to reasoning in this whole matter that I was mentioning above… People who don’t perceive threat within their plane of sight - that is too slow for them to register it as a threat. The psychology of this thing is actually quite a bit as complex as the problem being conveyed  

The PR specialists charged to bring the science to light in public awareness are not very good at it either

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

yes unfortunately.  and higher humidity also due to climate change tends to suppress high temps while boosting mins, have seen that all too often here on the east coast

 

Yup. I’ve been posting about the ‘heat soaking’ .. as in up, lending to higher than average hydrostatic hgts.  

It’s almost weird to see a high temperature of 84 and a dewpoint, 76, with overing non-hydrostatic Heights closing in on 600 dam. That night ends up +10

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup. I’ve been posting about the ‘heat soaking’ .. as in up, lending to higher than average hydrostatic hgts.  

It’s almost weird to see a high temperature of 84 and a dewpoint, 76, with overing non-hydrostatic Heights closing in on 600 dam. That night ends up +10

if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense, if one surmises that CC is moving the climate zones north, well, we have the future of a tropical rain forest climate, unless we keep chopping down all our trees, and then it will just be tropical minus the forest part lol.  We will be the new Florida and Florida will be the new Atlantis.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well … “slow” in that context doesn’t just mean rate - kind of a loaded adjective I suppose. 

It’s slow enough to quell urgency. It’s part of the capacitance to reasoning in this whole matter that I was mentioning above… People who don’t perceive threat within their plane of sight - that is too slow for them to register it as a threat. The psychology of this thing is actually quite a bit as complex as the problem being conveyed  

The PR specialists charged to bring the science to light in public awareness are not very good at it either

Indeed- because I remember this was being discussed in the 80s and we still haven't made all that much headway.

Remember Planck's famous quote about quantum mechanics?  It also applies to climate change

Planck experienced the truth of his own earlier observation from his struggle with the older views in his younger years: "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

LOL - Tamino is a mathematician with one of the best climate blogs, almost entirely data analysis. Sad when sound data analysis is fake news. As described in the article Heller's US temperature charts are bogus.

fossil fuel cartel brainwashing techniques work well, dont they?

 

[LibertyBell]

looks like we'll have a new supersonic jet next year to replace the Concorde, but this time it will use 100% sustainable fuel.  I'll have to read up more on it to see how it works.

 

[ChescoWx]

On 8/17/2021 at 10:18 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Chill

I asked a simple question: what was your point in making that post-I’ll give you another chance, do you have one. 
 

I wasn’t seeking conflict; it looks like it’s just a chart

Hi Tip - the point is even in our current warming cycle of climate change - the apparent lessening of extreme (if 95 degrees is extreme?) may support the idea that the warming is derived more from the higher min temps than the high temps - supporting the increasing average temps.

[etudiant]

On 8/17/2021 at 11:17 PM, LibertyBell said:

looks like we'll have a new supersonic jet next year to replace the Concorde, but this time it will use 100% sustainable fuel.  I'll have to read up more on it to see how it works.

 

These are projects fueled by supersonic cash courtesy of the Fed.

There is zero real world utility for these fantasies, the time saved flying is used up by the airport vaccine checkin.

Too much money chasing too few ideas.

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

Is that Summit Camp?  Thats the top of the ice cap on Greenland, I follow their hourly weather data (updated on weatherbug) they are the coldest location by extreme temp in the northern hemisphere.

 

[raindancewx]

https://www.vox.com/21507802/wildfire-2020-california-indigenous-native-american-indian-controlled-burn-fire

Good example of why I personally find reporting on the fires and drought to be so shitty from people who don't seem to know anything about the history of land management out here. As is usually the case with the climate stuff, human stupidity is a much larger contributor to local events than actual warming or precipitation pattern changes.

This is very similar to what the old trees look like here in the old forests that have not had major fires in decades or centuries. As is usually the case in my experience, the instinct of modern environmentalism is to "preserve" nature at all costs, when it reality, the goal should be to evaluate what is "the healthy normal" and maintain that, rather than simply preserving what is 'natural', but often unhealthy. The environmental movement doesn't seem to understand that natural doesn't actually mean good. The idea the Europeans came to the US and found a fully 'natural and untouched' landscape has always been laughably stupid and insanely racist with regards to the capabilities of the Natives, but it does seem to the basis for a lot of green thoughts about what America was pre-1600.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that Summit Camp?  Thats the top of the ice cap on Greenland, I follow their hourly weather data (updated on weatherbug) they are the coldest location by extreme temp in the northern hemisphere.

 

Yes. That’s it. Another “first” in the era of climate change.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s it. Another “first” in the era of climate change.

Don did you read the part about a polar bear making it up there for the first time ever?  Thats one of the craziest things I've ever read, it must've been a multiyear trek!

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don did you read the part about a polar bear making it up there for the first time ever?  Thats one of the craziest things I've ever read, it must've been a multiyear trek!

 

I did. It’s remarkable.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I did. It’s remarkable.

There should be a way to attach a tiny camera to the bear and see what it sees, the journey must've been an odyssey.   I doubt a human could survive such a grueling journey.

 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There should be a way to attach a tiny camera to the bear and see what it sees, the journey must've been an odyssey.   I doubt a human could survive such a grueling journey.

 

I doubt that the research station has electronic transmitters that can be attached to the bear. No one had likely expected its appearance.

[raindancewx]

https://bitesizevegan.org/environment/everything-wrong-with-environmentalism-in-11-minutes-or-less/

Any of you ever see this? It's pretty well sourced. I basically agree with her that it's asinine to pretend to care about the environment and eat meat. I love meat, but I also don't pretend to be an environmentalist. The figures she cites for meat production per acre line up pretty well with what ranchers tell me. 

[tamarack]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:14 AM, ChescoWx said:

Hi Tip - the point is even in our current warming cycle of climate change - the apparent lessening of extreme (if 95 degrees is extreme?) may support the idea that the warming is derived more from the higher min temps than the high temps - supporting the increasing average temps.

For fun I did 5-year running averages for each month's diurnal temp range here, not a long sample (periods 1999-03 thru 2016-20 so just an 18-year sample) and it revealed what I think are significant changes during that short period.  The average yearly diurnal range has decreased by 1.8° over the period.  One month, the low-range November (only DEC's is smaller) actually increased by 0.5° but the other 11 months all showed at least 1.0° decreased ranges, led by the 3.4° for October.  My place was in the woods when we moved here in May 1998 and that has not changed.  The increased atmospheric moisture appears to be buffering both extreme highs and extreme lows.

Raindancewx:
The tree ring sample caught my eye.  I've been skeptical of the value of dendrochronology as analog for temp change, except at the cold-climate edge of a tree species' range.  Having measured nearby trees' diameter growth at 2-week intervals for a number of years, I've found that spring temps can alter the commencement of growth (2020 and 2021 provided major contrasts) but the annual increment is affected far more by precipitation/soil moisture than by temperature - probably by an order of magnitude.  

Edit:  And I like eating meat too, but my favorite is deer meat and since I hunt on my woodlot with a rifle made in 1964, the GHG impact is minimal.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/20/2021 at 1:38 AM, raindancewx said:

https://bitesizevegan.org/environment/everything-wrong-with-environmentalism-in-11-minutes-or-less/

Any of you ever see this? It's pretty well sourced. I basically agree with her that it's asinine to pretend to care about the environment and eat meat. I love meat, but I also don't pretend to be an environmentalist. The figures she cites for meat production per acre line up pretty well with what ranchers tell me. 

you also should eat much less meat for health reasons

https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/eat-more-plant-based-proteins-to-boost-longevity

 

They analyzed 32 studies about protein intake that included more than 715,000 people, with follow-up periods ranging from three-and-a-half years to over three decades. Combining data from multiple studies, the researchers calculated that getting 3% more of total calories in the form of plant protein (like beans, nuts, and whole grains) lowered people's risk for premature death by 5%. Another study, published online July 13, 2020, by JAMA Internal Medicine, looked at the survival rates of more than 416,000 people who'd reported their diet and lifestyle information 16 years earlier (when they were 50 to 71 years old). In this study, shifting just 3% of calorie intake from animal protein (meat, poultry, fish, or dairy products) to plant protein corresponded with a 10% decrease in death from any cause over that period, for both men and women. In particular, replacing eggs and red meat with plant proteins appeared to reduce death risk by as much as 24% in men and 21% in women — especially in people with high intake of eggs and red meat.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/20/2021 at 1:38 AM, raindancewx said:

https://bitesizevegan.org/environment/everything-wrong-with-environmentalism-in-11-minutes-or-less/

Any of you ever see this? It's pretty well sourced. I basically agree with her that it's asinine to pretend to care about the environment and eat meat. I love meat, but I also don't pretend to be an environmentalist. The figures she cites for meat production per acre line up pretty well with what ranchers tell me. 

also major moral and health reasons for avoiding factory farmed BS