Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[Bhs1975]

We need to get much better at drawing CO2 down than we are now at raising it up.

[chubbs]

The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

[LibertyBell]

from SciAm

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-green-new-deal-is-more-relevant-than-ever/

[LibertyBell]

On 11/16/2020 at 8:36 AM, chubbs said:

The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html

I wouldn't be surprised if they're right.  History has taught us that pessimism is usually correct.  With so many factors interconnected it's not a surprise there would be a feedback mechanism to amplify the outcome.  I put the odds that we avoid a runaway greenhouse effect at around 10%.  I've always believed that we should've started to cut greenhouse consumption back in the 80s-90s and should never have turned to fracking, but humankind has a history of making dumb shortsighted decisions (one of many reasons why I favor artificial intelligence and scientists running govt over politicians.)

 

 

[psv88]

Incoming Biden team to focus heavily on climate change...good to see!

[LibertyBell]

On 11/24/2020 at 2:12 PM, psv88 said:

Incoming Biden team to focus heavily on climate change...good to see!

We hope they will, but it's going to be a wait and see attitude because some of the people on their transition team have connections to the fossil fuel cartel.

Cedric Richmond and Moniz in particular.  It's been talked about before.

Richmond was one of a few Democrats who voted to authorize the Keystone XL pipeline.^[18] He is the fifth-biggest recipient of money from fossil fuel donors among House Democrats. The League of Conservation Voters gave him one of the lowest ratings for any Democrat in Congress.^[19]

^{https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-biden-appoints-fossil-fuel-ally-cedric-richmond-as-his-climate-movement-liason}

[donsutherland1]

19 hours ago, psv88 said:

Incoming Biden team to focus heavily on climate change...good to see!

The appointment of former Secretary of State John Kerry as a cabinet-level climate envoy is encouraging. He has international clout, relationships and credibility.

Nevertheless, the dying climate change denial movement and the status quo interests that back it likely won't yield without putting up a big fight. Translating goals into policy will be a significant challenge, even as the issue is urgent.

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The appointment of former Secretary of State John Kerry as a cabinet-level climate envoy is encouraging. He has international clout, relationships and credibility.

Nevertheless, the dying climate change denial movement and the status quo interests that back it likely won't yield without putting up a big fight. Translating goals into policy will be a significant challenge, even as the issue is urgent.

He is the shining light here, he recognizes that the Paris Treaty is now out of date and we need much faster action now and stronger penalties for those nations who dont.

This is a sad commentary, but the rising number of climate catastrophes and their multibillion dollar costs is actually a good thing as it is going to motivate conservatives and so-called moderates in states like Louisiana and Florida to faster action.  The more disasters we have and the faster they occur the better for the changes we need.  Ditto for pandemics and getting universal healthcare.  Sad commentary on the state of this country but this is where we are.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He is the shining light here, he recognizes that the Paris Treaty is now out of date and we need much faster action now and stronger penalties for those nations who dont.

This is a sad commentary, but the rising number of climate catastrophes and their multibillion dollar costs is actually a good thing as it is going to motivate conservatives and so-called moderates in states like Louisiana and Florida to faster action.  The more disasters we have and the faster they occur the better for the changes we need.  Ditto for pandemics and getting universal healthcare.  Sad commentary on the state of this country but this is where we are.

 

 

Unfortunately, the U.S. is quite polarized right now. Crises have become the major driver for breaking policy impasses. Otherwise, there is unusual inertia.

The Millennial generation is not polarized, so as that generation gains influence, the polarization that currently hobbles American policy making should begin to recede.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, the U.S. is quite polarized right now. Crises have become the major driver for breaking policy impasses. Otherwise, there is unusual inertia.

The Millennial generation is not polarized, so as that generation gains influence, the polarization that currently hobbles American policy making should begin to recede.

Yes I have high hopes for future generations as it seems like they have a sense of urgency the rest are lacking.  And by future I mean like within the next 5-10 years lol

 

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, the U.S. is quite polarized right now. Crises have become the major driver for breaking policy impasses. Otherwise, there is unusual inertia.

The Millennial generation is not polarized, so as that generation gains influence, the polarization that currently hobbles American policy making should begin to recede.

Looking out at my postage stamp on a late November Thanksgiving morning. I think that 9 am at 60 degrees does not do justice to “Over the  river and through the woods”. We boomers are nearly done and so be it. I am still thankful for everyone on this forum who by their words have given me more hope and enjoyment than I probably deserve. Be well and Happy Thanksgiving all from one old bird that still remains too tough to grace even a desperate menu. As always ...

[LibertyBell]

New Zealand was the first nation to declare a climate emergency and has pledged to go green within 5 years (for all government vehicles and power sources) and says that corporations cannot be relied on to do it themselves and that leadership must come from the government.  Way to go, New Zealand and Jacinda Ardern!  She's my favorite world leader by far.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

New Zealand was the first nation to declare a climate emergency and has pledged to go green within 5 years (for all government vehicles and power sources) and says that corporations cannot be relied on to do it themselves and that leadership must come from the government.  Way to go, New Zealand and Jacinda Ardern!  She's my favorite world leader by far.

 

Prime Minister Ardern is a truly outstanding leader. She has accomplished a lot of significant things during her short tenure in office.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued its provisional report on the state of the global climate in 2020. Key takeaways:

1. 2020 will be among the 3 warmest years on record despite a La Nina. The last 6 years will be the warmest 6 years on record.

2. 80% of the ocean experienced a marine heat wave at some point this year.

3. The Arctic sea ice extent minimum was the second lowest on record and the Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass.

4. The Atlantic basin recorded a record 30 tropical cyclones.

The full report can be found at: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10444

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued its provisional report on the state of the global climate in 2020. Key takeaways:

1. 2020 will be among the 3 warmest years on record despite a La Nina. The last 6 years will be the warmest 6 years on record.

2. 80% of the ocean experienced a marine heat wave at some point this year.

3. The Arctic sea ice extent minimum was the second lowest on record and the Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass.

4. The Atlantic basin recorded a record 30 tropical cyclones.

The full report can be found at: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10444

 

 

2020 could still be the warmest year on record and that would be amazing in a La Nina, let along a strong one.

[donsutherland1]

Arctic Report Card 2020 is now available at:

https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/ArcticReportCard/Documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2020.pdf

[rclab]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Arctic Report Card 2020 is now available at:

https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/ArcticReportCard/Documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2020.pdf

Don, I went through this while the first sustained snow fell and melted on my postage stamp backyard. From a now well opened North West Passage to burning duff plugs I found the non biased, non political information ironically poignant as the fading frozen promise continues to fall outside my window. As always ....

[donsutherland1]

New analysis on Australia’s record-warm spring:

http://nespclimate.com.au/record-2020-spring-event-attribution/

[rclab]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New analysis on Australia’s record-warm spring:

http://nespclimate.com.au/record-2020-spring-event-attribution/

Don, I read this and looked at the last few moments of the movie On The Beach. The banner in front of a building in deserted dead Sydney said it all; 
THERE IS STILL TIME ... BROTHER. As always .....

[LibertyBell]

 I'd be extremely cautious in calling Canada progressive.  I'm sure you know about Alberta's dirty tar sands projects that are polluting wildlife areas and they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels (forecast to double within the 10 years), even with all the widespread protests by the native american communities as well as environmental activists.  They could keep that going for 400 years if they were to completely take all the carbon out of the ground there.  So let me ask you this-- why should the Trudeau administration be viewed as anything other than a lying hypocrisy that needs to be voted out when they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels from the Tar Sands?  Why are they going backwards when we should all be going forwards and how should we as a global community be punishing them to de-incentivize this kind of bad behavior?  We should be punishing ALL nations that do bad behavior like this that has global implications.

[bdgwx]

Dr. Spencer posted documents containing the official seal of the Office of Science and Technology Policy on his blog under the direction of David Legates. These documents represent the views of a whos who list of contrarian scientists.  

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/01/white-house-brochures-on-climate-there-is-no-climate-crisis/

These documents are disinformation at best. They certainly don't represent "the current state-of-the-science on various topics of climate change" as Legates claim. In addition the OSTP did not grant approval to disseminate these documents. It is not even clear they were aware of their existence until now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/

Edit: Apparently the documents are also hosted by the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences.

https://www.ceres-science.com/content/climate_change_flyers.html

Edit: David Legates and Ryan Maue have both been relieved of their duties in regards to the OSTP over this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/

Edit: NOAA has issued a statement regarding the matter.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/statement-on-climate-change-flyers-falsely-attributed-to-white-house-office-of-science

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/attempt-to-red-team-climate-research-comes-to-a-pathetic-and-confused-end/

[Vice-Regent]

On 12/31/2020 at 8:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

 I'd be extremely cautious in calling Canada progressive.  I'm sure you know about Alberta's dirty tar sands projects that are polluting wildlife areas and they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels (forecast to double within the 10 years), even with all the widespread protests by the native american communities as well as environmental activists.  They could keep that going for 400 years if they were to completely take all the carbon out of the ground there.  So let me ask you this-- why should the Trudeau administration be viewed as anything other than a lying hypocrisy that needs to be voted out when they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels from the Tar Sands?  Why are they going backwards when we should all be going forwards and how should we as a global community be punishing them to de-incentivize this kind of bad behavior?  We should be punishing ALL nations that do bad behavior like this that has global implications.

Among the greater deceptions of modern times. Canada was once a bastion of hope for many but the corporate reach is unprecedented.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Among the greater deceptions of modern times. Canada was once a bastion of hope for many but the corporate reach is unprecedented.

They also do mass surveillance there on a scale similar to the US and the UK.

Violence against minorities has also been on the rise there.

 

[LibertyBell]

https://www.zmescience.com/science/coronavirus-crisis-accelerating-renewables-01052020/

 

some good news for a change

 

https://www.zmescience.com/science/renewables-solar-energy-21102019/

[chubbs]

Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate

  A good read. Yes the climate has varied in the past. 

https://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/178/1/jgs2020-239

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[etudiant]

Imho this is more reassuring.

If the oceans can absorb this massive input of heat without substantial disruption, we are home free. All these effects are logarithmic, the most rapid impacts are early on.

So if the oceans can buffer several decades of warming, we will never have abrupt change, just stuff that has a generational lead time.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/17/2021 at 1:34 PM, etudiant said:

Imho this is more reassuring.

If the oceans can absorb this massive input of heat without substantial disruption, we are home free. All these effects are logarithmic, the most rapid impacts are early on.

So if the oceans can buffer several decades of warming, we will never have abrupt change, just stuff that has a generational lead time.

I think it might be too late for that.  The oceans have already been absorbing a lot and it's destroying the marine ecosystem.  In addition to that our oceans fuel our storms so warmer oceans mean many more extreme storms, which we're already seeing.  And there's also the coral reef bleaching issues.

We should just shut down the fossil fuel industry, period.

Whatever hit we get because of it, it's nothing compared to the damage the fossil fuel industry is doing.  It needs to be shut down completely.

 

[Silver Meteor]

On 1/19/2021 at 3:18 AM, LibertyBell said:

I think it might be too late for that.  The oceans have already been absorbing a lot and it's destroying the marine ecosystem.  In addition to that our oceans fuel our storms so warmer oceans mean many more extreme storms, which we're already seeing.  And there's also the coral reef bleaching issues.

We should just shut down the fossil fuel industry, period.

Whatever hit we get because of it, it's nothing compared to the damage the fossil fuel industry is doing.  It needs to be shut down completely.

 

I've followed this website and its predecessors since the 1990s. I read the book "1984" in junior high school 1964. A semi-retired computer and financial analyst today I see most here as intellectual robots programmed by the wealthy global establishment. For ten years I've watched this group dumbing down just as the rest of society has. 

 

[Vice-Regent]