Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, rcostell said:

Sir/Ms- I've been around the world, been through a lot, seen a lot,  and pretty sure I'm older than you so I'm fairly confident I'm a realist- not what you are referring to me as, above. The name callling can stop.  

"Unprecedented" is a real word, with real meaning. I chose it carefully.  Did you even look at the video? (again, attached below)  For your benefit- I took a little time to find a good example (there are many) that cleanly addressed your words in a post above:   "Only if we can ever link climate change to any adverse real world weather events."  The video provides actual, visual evidence of exactly that. 

Of course you can focus on parsing words and personal opinion and a bit of name calling- its not relevant or pleasant- but within your right.    My opinion is that perhaps you should get out of your "bunker" in Chester County more- look around and observe ground truth not from behind a computer but in a larger, non-digital setting.  Ask yourself why you are online, labelling someone you have never met- at 2.30 AM on a Sunday morning as opposed to not.  

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=aiden+robbins+danger+in+alps&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:807a5e76,vid:R0NGujTF1Xw,st:0

Using the word *alarmist* is particularly amusing, especially since it assumes it's something really bad.  It's not, this is going to be the ultimate check on humanity and control its excesses.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Using the word *alarmist* is particularly amusing, especially since it assumes it's something really bad.  It's not, this is going to be the ultimate check on humanity and control its excesses.

 

"...Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience..."

[TheClimateChanger]

Coldest January in the U.S. since 1988, barely beating out 1994. I guess climate change is over (just kidding!). What they won't tell you is from 1895 to 1988, inclusive, a period of 94 years, fully 33 of them saw Januarys that are as cold or colder than this one! So that's more than 1 out of every 3 years, meaning this was largely a typical 20th century January. Something that happens more than 1 out of every 3 years is pretty much as normal as it gets.

Proof:

Tied with 1920 for 33rd coldest, meaning 33 years saw Januarys as cold or colder than this one until 1988. Yet it's been nearly 40 years since we've had a January as cold or colder than this one for the CONUS. Weird - it's almost like something has changed.

[bluewave]

On 2/8/2025 at 6:15 PM, ChescoWx said:

Only if we can ever link climate change to any adverse real world weather events....

Every weather event that occurs is in some way influenced by the average global temperatures around the time of the event. You wouldn’t expect the real world weather events to be the same during an ice age as they were during the PETM. So the background climate temperatures during each era sets the parameters or range of possibilities for the individual weather events. 

[chubbs]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Every weather event that occurs is in some way influenced by the average global temperatures around the time of the event. You wouldn’t expect the real world weather events to be the same during an ice age as they were during the PETM. So the background climate temperatures during each era sets the parameters or range of possibilities for the individual weather events. 

Our local Chester County weather is changing exactly as expected with GHG warming, just like the rest of the region. Chester County has warmed 3-4F since Coop data collection started in the 1890s. Nights and winters are warming the fastest. Rainfall is increasing, particularly heavy rains. Our snowfall is increasingly concentrated in a few heavy storms/winters. Clear as day if you analyze the data properly. We beat the Chesco temperature data to death recently. Despite all the complaints about alarmism, NOAA was spot on.

 

[Ski Patroller]

JFC. How stupid of me to think that all fellow weather fanatics would universally accept the science of climate change. But at a time when every PhD and university is considered an "enemy of the people" and a kakistocrisy has taken control of the government, I should not be surprised.

[LibertyBell]

On 2/10/2025 at 2:51 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Coldest January in the U.S. since 1988, barely beating out 1994. I guess climate change is over (just kidding!). What they won't tell you is from 1895 to 1988, inclusive, a period of 94 years, fully 33 of them saw Januarys that are as cold or colder than this one! So that's more than 1 out of every 3 years, meaning this was largely a typical 20th century January. Something that happens more than 1 out of every 3 years is pretty much as normal as it gets.

Proof:

Tied with 1920 for 33rd coldest, meaning 33 years saw Januarys as cold or colder than this one until 1988. Yet it's been nearly 40 years since we've had a January as cold or colder than this one for the CONUS. Weird - it's almost like something has changed.

I lived through December 1989, January 1994, January 2004, and February 2015, they were all MUCH colder.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 2/11/2025 at 8:58 AM, Ski Patroller said:

JFC. How stupid of me to think that all fellow weather fanatics would universally accept the science of climate change. But at a time when every PhD and university is considered an "enemy of the people" and a kakistocrisy has taken control of the government, I should not be surprised.

Completely out of line for this sub-forum to talk politics but this isn't really a political distinction.  It's an observation of a stagnation and more apropos to say, deterioration, of both the bulk ethical/moral, as well as functional intelligence, at the scale of whole society. 

The populace has been exposed. The bulk of the people are literally inept to the point where false media reliance became substantive.  And by that ...conned into elevating this kakistocrasy to realization.  Neither a healthy sense of right and wrong, nor any 'math' existed enough in their minds to have prevented this. In a way, don't blame them. Blame the circumstantial multi-generational mollycoddling by the relative advantages of Industrialized living - there's no sense of morality to those that consider matters as entitlement and presumption of rights.  There is a disconnect from understanding that was earned by sacrifices in the history of the world ... and not innately provided as some kind of given right. 

They may have hailed from a given political distinction, but no... this wasn't politics.  It was idiocy run amok unchecked, and unbalanced, winning, purely by huge numbers that were made to be that way because of that reciprocating effect of diminishing intelligentsia.  Remember this.  History will remember this era as "The Great Dumbing" ... 

I interact with rural Massachusetts and Michigan in my own personal experiences; literally lack the objective filters to not be assuaged by the Machiavellian tactics, perpetrated as righteousness, by certain mass media organizations and their network of social media stratagem, which so affectingly reached what was really a socially engineered constituency. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/11/2025 at 3:02 PM, LibertyBell said:

I lived through December 1989, January 1994, January 2004, and February 2015, they were all MUCH colder.

 

Yes, the cold was most impressive relative to the mean in the southern U.S. West Virginia was the coldest state, recording the 12th coldest January on record, probably driven, in part, by unusually persistent snow coverage. The State of New York was actually 0.6F above the 20th century mean and ranked as 60th warmest January, per NCEI.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Completely out of line for this sub-forum to talk politics but this isn't really a political distinction.  It's an observation of a stagnation and more apropos to say, deterioration, of both the bulk ethical/moral, as well as functional intelligence, at the scale of whole society. 

The populace has been exposed. The bulk of the people are literally inept to the point where false media reliance became substantive.  And by that ...conned into elevating this kakistocrasy to realization.  Neither a healthy sense of right and wrong, nor any 'math' existed enough in their minds to have prevented this. In a way, don't blame them. Blame the circumstantial multi-generational mollycoddling by the relative advantages of Industrialized living - there's no sense of morality to those that consider matters as entitlement and presumption of rights.  There is a disconnect from understanding that was earned by sacrifices in the history of the world ... and not innately provided as some kind of given right. 

They may have hailed from a given political distinction, but no... this wasn't politics.  It was idiocy run amok unchecked, and unbalanced, winning, purely by huge numbers that were made to be that way because of that reciprocating effect of diminishing intelligentsia.  Remember this.  History will remember this era as "The Great Dumbing" ... 

I interact with rural Massachusetts and Michigan in my own personal experiences; literally lack the objective filters to not be assuaged by the Machiavellian tactics, perpetrated as righteousness, by certain mass media organizations and their network of social media stratagem, which so affectingly reached what was really a socially engineered constituency. 

 

How much of this dumbing down has to do with certain conventional media outlets and also malicious social media algorithms?

 

On a deeper level, how much of this dumbing down comes from the great cancer of corporatist crony crapitalism, to profit at any cost, even if it means cutting down social programs, healthcare and education? We have seen a whittling down of all of these since the 1970s.  Teachers and nurses don't get paid enough, public education and healthcare aren't funded properly, our food aisles are littered with cheap unhealthy food that damages the minds and bodies of our children, the long term benefits of society are sacrificed for short term gains for a select few at the top.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 2/13/2025 at 11:14 AM, LibertyBell said:

How much of this dumbing down has to do with certain conventional media outlets and also malicious social media algorithms?

 

On a deeper level, how much of this dumbing down comes from the great cancer of corporatist crony crapitalism, to profit at any cost, even if it means cutting down social programs, healthcare and education? We have seen a whittling down of all of these since the 1970s.  Teachers and nurses don't get paid enough, public education and healthcare aren't funded properly, our food aisles are littered with cheap unhealthy food that damages the minds and bodies of our children, the long term benefits of society are sacrificed for short term gains for a select few at the top.

It's not the cause...  The issue is that the targeted audience is no longer equipped to defend their perspectives from the penetration of deception - manipulation follows.

There's a reason why psychological science has recently papered a result of mass IQ's being some 20 points lower than early 20th Century.

They believe weird shit back then... but that was by virtue of where humanity was in history.  They knew how to use their heads, with the limited information they were exposed to, more objectively.  

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not the cause...  The issue is that the audience is not more than ever in history, capable of being manipulated by it.  

 

Then this might come down to education, has our education system failed us or have we failed it?  We have been weakening our social safety nets and educational programs for the last few decades.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Then this might come down to education, has our education system failed us or have we failed it?  We have been weakening our social safety nets and educational programs for the last few decades.

I rewrote that.. but yeah, this is part of it.

But it precipitates out the "molly coddling" aspect.   People don't need to learn if they are provided for, and the IR and the generations since, are in a state of diminishing returns. 

This is part of the Fermi Paradox explanation imho, btw.   As an aside,   species discover adequate provisions and enhance survival, Darwinism mechanics no longer require evolution to improve, de-evolution takes over.   I've referred to this in the past as the catch-22 of advancement.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not the cause...  The issue is that the targeted audience is no longer equipped to defend there perspectives from the penetration of deception - manipulation follows.

There's a reason why psychological science has recently papered a result of mass IQ's being some 20 points lower than early 20th Century.

The believe weird shit back then... but that was by virtue of where humanity was in history.  They knew how to use their heads, with the limited information they were exposed to, more objectively.  

 

Yes I marvel at the genius of people like Nikola Tesla, who despite his OCD and somewhat magical thinking, was way way ahead of time and the father of modern electrical engineering.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I rewrote that.. but yeah, this is part of it.

But it precipitates out the "molly coddling" aspect.   People don't need to learn if they are provided for, and the IR and the generations since, are in a state of diminishing returns. 

This is part of the Fermi Paradox explanation imho, btw.   As an aside,   species discover adequate provisions and enhance survival, Darwinism mechanics no longer require, de-evolution takes over. 

This has been my thinking for a decade I think we had a conversation about it on the old forum.  Evolution paves the way for the destruction of the evolving species, devolution as you say (and as I wrote back then.)

Humanity actually peaked in intelligence about 3000 years ago according to a study I read.  The Ancient Greeks, Egyptians, Sumerians, were far more capable of thinking on their feet than people in our society are and the scientific method and math they created form the basis of the society we have today.

Have you ever read about the Antikythera device? It was the world's first ancient computer, made entirely of stone and able to predict eclipses and occultations years in advance. Created by the great Archimedes.

[etudiant]

On 2/13/2025 at 12:19 PM, LibertyBell said:

This has been my thinking for a decade I think we had a conversation about it on the old forum.  Evolution paves the way for the destruction of the evolving species, devolution as you say (and as I wrote back then.)

Humanity actually peaked in intelligence about 3000 years ago according to a study I read.  The Ancient Greeks, Egyptians, Sumerians, were far more capable of thinking on their feet than people in our society are and the scientific method and math they created form the basis of the society we have today.

Have you ever read about the Antikythera device? It was the world's first ancient computer, made entirely of stone and able to predict eclipses and occultations years in advance. Created by the great Archimedes.

That machine is on display in Athens, along with some really fine computer imagery of how it worked. It is truly a marvel, both conceptually as well as practically it is a marvel.

Note that it had multiple gear trains, precision crafted to replicate the movements of the planets. The instructions were on the box, they were only discovered in the last couple of decades.

[ChescoWx]

Almost coast to coast cold so far this year. The entire country except spots in Maine, Florida and The Southwest running with below normal temperatures since January 1st. Is this the start of our next cyclical climate change cycle of a turn to colder?

[bdgwx]

10 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Is this the start of our next cyclical climate change cycle of a turn to colder?

No. 

[ChescoWx]

Chester County PA Average Winter Temperatures by Decade 1900's thru 2010's

Our warmest winters occurred back in the decades of the 1930's and 1950's our coldest were in the 1960's and 1970's.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Almost coast to coast cold so far this year. The entire country except spots in Maine, Florida and The Southwest running with below normal temperatures since January 1st. Is this the start of our next cyclical climate change cycle of a turn to colder?

3F below normal compared to 1991-2020 averages, the warmest 30 year set. In 2024, 2023, and 2020, the nation blew past 3F above normal during the exact same stretch like nothing. Where were you posting the national temp anomaly maps then? 

[ChescoWx]

31 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

3F below normal compared to 1991-2020 averages, the warmest 30 year set. In 2024, 2023, and 2020, the nation blew past 3F above normal during the exact same stretch like nothing. Where were you posting the national temp anomaly maps then? 

Now that our next cyclical cooling cycle could well be starting now thought best to post at this time....

[rcostell]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Now that our next cyclical cooling cycle could well be starting now thought best to post at this time....

Q: In your world, what geographical area is "our"?  What is a "cylical cycle"?  "Thought it best" for whos benefit?    Thanks for enlightening us...

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Chester County PA Average Winter Temperatures by Decade 1900's thru 2010's

Our warmest winters occurred back in the decades of the 1930's and 1950's our coldest were in the 1960's and 1970's.

The data from Coatesville, near the center of the county, says you are presenting a misleading picture. This decade is the warmest in Coatesville, followed by the last decade. The adjusted values for Coatesville are a close match to the NOAA Chester County series. The adjusted data removes the bias introduced by station changes. By far the most impactful change is the post-WWII move out of the city of Coatesville to a cooler rural location. 

[GaWx]

On this Thawing Sunday, a Reading from the Book of Arthur ( Viterito)

From Arthur Viterito:

One of the criticisms of the argument that variable geothermal flux along mid-ocean ridges can
modulate global climate is as follows: There isn’t enough heat flow to impact the system. Critics
further argue that changes to the global temperature must be caused by either fluctuations in
the atmosphere’s CO2 load and/or changes in cosmic radiation and/or changes in global cloud
cover.
Defense of the geothermal hypothesis can be found in a substantial body of theoretical and
empirical work that is casually ignored by its detractors. Compelling evidence will be presented
to debunk these criticisms.
1) We know that the earth emits the vast majority of its geothermal energy along mid ocean
rises and ridges. We know that the flux can change over time and that change is reflected in the
number of seismic events recorded in these areas. Here is a map showing the geothermal flux
globally:

2) According to Davis et al (Davis E, Becker K, Dziak R, Cassidy J, Wang K, et al. (2004)
Hydrological response to a seafloor spreading episode on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Nature
430(6997): 335-338. DOI: 10.1038/nature02755), increasing seismic activity in these abyssal
zones leads to an increase in water temperatures. To quote from their study:
“Seafloor hydrothermal systems are known to respond to seismic and magmatic activity
along mid-ocean ridges, often resulting in locally positive changes in hydrothermal
discharge rate, temperature, … and shifts in composition occurring at the time of
earthquake swarms and axial crustal dike injections. Corresponding regional effects
have also been observed.”

3) In a number of studies, I have documented large changes in the number of medium and large
magnitude seismic events along these mid-ocean ridge systems. Here are links to two of these
studies:
The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming | OMICS International
1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History

4) How, then, can changing geothermal flux affect global climate? If you query Google
(“geothermal global flux”), the Gemini AI system will respond with the following:
“Global geothermal flux is the amount of heat that moves from the Earth's interior to the
surface over time. It's a major factor in climate change and can impact ice sheets and
the ocean.
How does geothermal flux affect the Earth?
Ice sheets: Geothermal heat flux can melt ice sheets, which can increase the amount of
ice that flows into the ocean. This can contribute to sea level rise.
Oceanic circulation: Geothermal heat flux affects the circulation of water in the ocean.
Climate change: Geothermal heat flux contributes to climate change by adding heat to
the Earth's system.”

5) With regards to melting ice sheets, James Kamis has commented on this extensively. Here is
a link to his work on the subject:
Plate climatology

6) With regards to impacts on the oceanic circulation, the literature is quite clear: increasing
geothermal flux intensifies the thermohaline flow. This is critically important, as it will drive more
warm water into the Arctic, (i.e., Atlantification and the Arctic Amplification) and the central Pacific by strengthening the Kuroshio Current.

7) Here we can see increased sea surface temperatures resulting from an intensified Kuroshio
Current during the most recent El Nino episode: ( note this was a reaction by the time it was taken, we were in a La Nada)

8) Here we can see the effect on the current sea ice extent in the Arctic. Notice the reduced ice
extent where the Northern Gulf Stream has been intensified from heightened mid ocean seismic
activity and geothermal flux:

 

9) Professor Wyss Yim has documented the impacts of large underwater seismic events on
local and regional ocean temperatures. He refers to these ephemeral, yet significant areas of
higher ocean temperatures, as “oceanic blobs.” Here is a link to one of his presentations:
Volcanic Eruptions and Climate Variability - Professor Wyss Yim - YouTube

10) If we tie all of this together, we arrive at a compelling statistical relationship between global
temperatures and mid-ocean seismic activity. Here is a graph depicting this relationship:

 

11) Ignoring this tight fit between global temperatures and mid-ocean geothermal flux is a
serious oversight by the climate community. Through continued research and improved
communication with climate scientists, it is hoped that this critical association will eventually find
its way into the mainstream thinking on recent climate change.

[ChescoWx]

13 hours ago, chubbs said:

The data from Coatesville, near the center of the county, says you are presenting a misleading picture. This decade is the warmest in Coatesville, followed by the last decade. The adjusted values for Coatesville are a close match to the NOAA Chester County series. The adjusted data removes the bias introduced by station changes. By far the most impactful change is the post-WWII move out of the city of Coatesville to a cooler rural location. 

Charlie funny your data looks very cyclical just like mine - thanks for supporting the very cyclical nature of our climate for me! Of course no fake adjustments allowed. My chart above is data for only complete decades so no 1890's or 2020's - no doubt the 2020's are off to a warm start.....but with our recently started cooling cycle kicking in let's see how the 2020's play out ....

[ChescoWx]

19 hours ago, rcostell said:

Q: In your world, what geographical area is "our"?  What is a "cylical cycle"?  "Thought it best" for whos benefit?    Thanks for enlightening us...

Thanks for asking - let me help you out here! "cyclical" check spelling - defined means "occurring in cycles or recurrent" Best for the benefit of climate analytics. Hope that helps you out!!