Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[TheClimateChanger]

I mean just compare the last two decades of U.S. CRN data and/or US48 satellite derived data (you can even use the latter back to 1979) - neither of which is subject to any TOBs adjustment - to Martz's "raw" data. It's nonsense.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:43 AM, bluewave said:

Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021.

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	76.7	0
2	2020	76.6	0
3	2022	76.4	0
-	2010	76.4	0
-	1966	76.4	0
-	1949	76.4	0
4	1955	76.3	1
-	1943	76.3	0
5	2021	76.1	0
6	2016	76.0	0
7	2011	75.9	0
-	2005	75.9	0
-	1952	75.9	0
8	1959	75.6	0
-	1900	75.6	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1944	75.3	0
10	2002	75.0	0
-	1968	75.0	0

 

 

Summer 2024 finished in fourth place nationally behind 1936, 2021 & 2022.

 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Martz has previously said the observers were "smart off" to reset the high temperature on the following day. But apparently they weren't smart enough to follow instructions and conform to the observational standards that were in place at the time. 

After asking around, as Martz blocked me, here's his argument for others to see:

From his argument, it's clear that Martz does not understand time of observation bias (TOBS). TOBS does not result from COOP station observers not setting their minimum/maximum thermometers. It results from the time of observation. Hence, if a COOP observer resets his/her thermometer at 5 pm, the bias results from the time the thermometer is set, not from the failure to set it.

Here's a quick illustration:

Notice that the observer who resets at 5 pm has a higher reported maximum and mean temperature than if the standard 12 am-12am cycle were used. The observer was not incompetent. The observer set his/her thermometer on his/her schedule (5 pm). It was the time of observation, not observer competence, that made the difference.

Were Martz's approach utilized, the biases resulting from time of observation--in this case a 4° difference for Day 2--would skew the data. If one wants an accurate climate record, the biases need to be removed.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-methane-emissions-faster.html

 

So if the US net emissions have been reduced. China is the culprit?  Further US reductions would not have much of an effect until China climbs on board?

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So if the US net emissions have been reduced. China is the culprit?  Further US reductions would not have much of an effect until China climbs on board?

yeah no idea what/who owns the biggest pie slice...  i just find the implication interesting.  

given ch4's greenhouse efficiency being an order of magnitude+ more so than the co2 ... this all becomes academic if all these human ch4 sources, team up with arctic perm frost release ...etc and et al, and simply outpace any modeling or predictions and the like. 

methane has a much short half life tho -

[Typhoon Tip]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

 

love it ... the guy's on point, too. 

op ed:  sometimes one will start watching one of these and they'll get 5 min in when seamlessly ( or tried to ) it becomes why the 2nd coming and rapture is upon us.  or something will just seem off until finally it dove tails into a liberal conspiracy to scare humanity about the end of the world.

society really needs more of these sort of paraphrased articulations, those that simplify [perhaps] that which is too complex for the majority of background population. 

part of the problem with reticence and lack of acceptance ..etc of environment and the travails et al, is really just for loss of awareness before even going into any discussion. there's a gap there.   too many are not connecting fast enough over what they are being told, because they don't know enough to begin with.   we don't need to be psychologist to sense that it's easier to dispense of any message that does not resonate.

and it gets worse when we think about the conditioning since the industrial revolution.  there's a negative feedback from convenience [addling], that's compounding over successive generations.   denying just about anything is privilege to do so, enabled by the relative safety of the industry realm.   

i read somewhere that the average i.q. is some 20 points lower in modernity compared to the a 200 years ago.  having access to more information doesn't make one smarter.  the information has to by virtue and willingness to the observer, actually get learned.  the processing intelligence [think working a muscle ) is also weaker.   why is all this so?  it is because we are soaked with choices and recourse, such that there are far less ramifications severe enough.  minds are not predicting consequence prior to actions or idiocy, when losses are not perceived as permanent.  this stuff has been touched on by literary works since the advancement of the printing press. it's not really novel. 

but the point is ... cc to micro plastics and all of it, it doesn't appeal to people that have no receiver to get the message.   these quick-for-low-attention-span exposes are useful to the lower attention span that comes with an "Idiocracy".

 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami#img-1

edit: actually that link isn’t loading properly… Just go to “the guardian”

And search on this title

Entire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami

 

 

interesting …

I recall, reading about a seismic event on the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet many years ago during the beginning of the hockey stick warming of the earth. Period of climate change…

It was subsequently theorized that it’s possible that a large majority of the interior ice sheet could ultimately fail in one single cataclysmic event sending much of the ballast of the ice into the sea the north Atlantic… Setting off a global tsunami/abrupt sea level rise of a couple of meters or more  

So these kinds of things are happening above and it’s really not too too dissimilar to that just happening on a much smaller scale 

 

[ChescoWx]

Another calming voice who is not a climate alarmist.....Meterologist Steve DiMartino. from NY NJ PA Weather - from his post today.

"So, unlike many others, I am going to answer this question. 1. People like Al Gore and others calling Climate Change an emergency or an existential threat have done more harm to understanding Climate Change than any person denying climate data. So let me be clear: we are not on any trajectory, nor have we ever been on one now where NYC or Miami will be under water any time soon. Can that happen in 100 or 200 years? Sure. Why? Well, because there is a lot of gradual change happening geologically (its been sinking since the end of the ice age) and a gradual rise of the sea (rough 0.14" per year), eventually these cities will either have serious flooding issues constantly or will be under water. Not in a decade or even three, but in hundreds of years, yes.No matter what we do, use coal or go carbon zero, we will have storms. This idea that powerful storms will become less likely is again, idiotic. People blaming every storm on climate change are doing so to drive emotion and nothing more. 5. This scientist has no issue with addressing your questions, but please don't blame me for the statements of an idiot politician"

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Another calming voice who is not a climate alarmist.....Meterologist Steve DiMartino. from NY NJ PA Weather - from his post today.

"So, unlike many others, I am going to answer this question. 1. People like Al Gore and others calling Climate Change an emergency or an existential threat have done more harm to understanding Climate Change than any person denying climate data. So let me be clear: we are not on any trajectory, nor have we ever been on one now where NYC or Miami will be under water any time soon. Can that happen in 100 or 200 years? Sure. Why? Well, because there is a lot of gradual change happening geologically (its been sinking since the end of the ice age) and a gradual rise of the sea (rough 0.14" per year), eventually these cities will either have serious flooding issues constantly or will be under water. Not in a decade or even three, but in hundreds of years, yes.No matter what we do, use coal or go carbon zero, we will have storms. This idea that powerful storms will become less likely is again, idiotic. People blaming every storm on climate change are doing so to drive emotion and nothing more. 5. This scientist has no issue with addressing your questions, but please don't blame me for the statements of an idiot politician"

The NOAA has an interactive map where one can look up sea rise scenarios up to the year 2100.

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-8238447.1697526295/4970176.725736294/10/satellite/125/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

One can look up local scenarios based on 2017 and 2022 projections. Afterward, one can also look up the degree of flooding at various locations based on the extent of sea level increase. Neither Miami nor New York City is projected to be underwater anytime soon. Even by 2100, at the high projection, much of NYC is not flooded. No serious climate scientist is calling for either city to be flooded in the near-term (next few decades). The incidence of flood events (sunny day and during storms is expected to increase).

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NOAA has an interactive map where one can look up sea rise scenarios up to the year 2100.

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/0/-8238447.1697526295/4970176.725736294/10/satellite/125/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

One can look up local scenarios based on 2017 and 2022 projections. Afterward, one can also look up the degree of flooding at various locations based on the extent of sea level increase. Neither Miami nor New York City is projected to be underwater anytime soon. Even by 2100, at the high projection, much of NYC is not flooded. No serious climate scientist is calling for either city to be flooded in the near-term (next few decades). The incidence of flood events (sunny day and during storms is expected to increase).

Must be a wonderful life you have, with all of your time on the internet spent telling people they are wrong. After all, everyone loves being told they are wrong and stupid all the time.

[ChescoWx]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:43 AM, bluewave said:

Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021.

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	76.7	0
2	2020	76.6	0
3	2022	76.4	0
-	2010	76.4	0
-	1966	76.4	0
-	1949	76.4	0
4	1955	76.3	1
-	1943	76.3	0
5	2021	76.1	0
6	2016	76.0	0
7	2011	75.9	0
-	2005	75.9	0
-	1952	75.9	0
8	1959	75.6	0
-	1900	75.6	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1944	75.3	0
10	2002	75.0	0
-	1968	75.0	0

 

Reading Airport trying to get as warm as PHL....RDG is now somehow warmer than the hot spot of their southern neighbor in Chester County - Phoenixville thanks to their climate change warming....

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Reading Airport trying to get as warm as PHL....RDG is now somehow warmer than the hot spot of their southern neighbor in Chester County - Phoenixville thanks to their climate change warming....

 

Bradford was the most impressive warm record this summer in PA as it beat the previous warmest summer by nearly a full degree rather than the tenth of a degree at Reading.

 

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	68.2	0
2	2021	67.3	0
3	2022	67.0	0
-	2020	67.0	0
4	2016	66.5	0
5	2018	66.3	0
6	2012	66.1	1
7	2023	66.0	0
-	2005	66.0	0
-	1991	66.0	0
-	1975	66.0	0
8	1959	65.9	0
9	2011	65.8	0
-	1993	65.8	0
-	1987	65.8	0

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Bradford was the most impressive warm record this summer in PA as it beat the previous warmest summer by nearly a full degree rather than the tenth of a degree at Reading.

 

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	68.2	0
2	2021	67.3	0
3	2022	67.0	0
-	2020	67.0	0
4	2016	66.5	0
5	2018	66.3	0
6	2012	66.1	1
7	2023	66.0	0
-	2005	66.0	0
-	1991	66.0	0
-	1975	66.0	0
8	1959	65.9	0
9	2011	65.8	0
-	1993	65.8	0
-	1987	65.8	0

 

 

unrelated observation ... but, that cool region in the mid west is interesting.  

i read material - perhaps links provided in this site's climate threads - related to farmland irrigation practices causing that.  elevating evaporation mass lowers the temperature, but stores the energy in the dps

might be interesting to see this product as dew points and then overlay -

[donsutherland1]

The Washington Post has published a story concerning an important paper covering the Earth's climate over the past 485 million years. The paper found that climate fluctuations were sharper and more sudden than previously modeled. The paper also revealed that CO2 was a key driver of climatic shifts.

Excerpts from The Washington Post:

An ambitious effort to understand the Earth’s climate over the past 485 million years has revealed a history of wild shifts and far hotter temperatures than scientists previously realized — offering a reminder of how much change the planet has already endured and a warning about the unprecedented rate of warming caused by humans.

The timeline, published Thursday in the journal Science, is the most rigorous reconstruction of Earth’s past temperatures ever produced, the authors say. Created by combining more than 150,000 pieces of fossil evidence with state-of-the-art climate models, it shows the intimate link between carbon dioxide and global temperatures and reveals that the world was in a much warmer state for most of the history of complex animal life...

“Carbon dioxide is really that master dial,” Tierney said. “That’s an important message … in terms of understanding why emissions from fossil fuels are a problem today.”

https://wapo.st/4dc2CTV

The underlying paper can be found here: 

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

[Typhoon Tip]

pretty solidly damning science/article here...

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-global-temperature-drastically-million.html

i like this,

".. But greenhouse gas emissions caused by anthropogenic climate change are currently warming the planet at a much faster rate than even the fastest warming events of the Phanerozoic..."

we just experience that global t burst last year...  it seems entirely intuitive to me - if not likely ... - that the cc temperature curve of the future will feature more of these surges, rather than a cozy predictable and easily adaptive helpful change rate  ( lol, but seriously - )

[ChescoWx]

The below graph accompanied the above climate article in the Washington Post yesterday. It shows that the current cycle of climate change now has the Earth at its coolest point in the last 485-million years...if the past is a predictor then maybe we have some more warming to go before we turn colder again in the next normal climate change cycle.

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

below graph accompanied the above climate article in the Washington Post yesterday. It shows that the current cycle of climate change now has the Earth at its coolest point in the last 485-million years...i

They did a great job putting all the research together.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

This research illustrates clearly that carbon dioxide is the dominant control on global temperatures across geological time," Tierney said. "When CO2 is low, the temperature is cold; when CO2 is high, the temperature is warm."

The findings also reveal that the Earth's current global temperature of 59 degrees Fahrenheit  is cooler than Earth has been over much of the Phanerozoic. But greenhouse gas emissions from human-caused climate change are currently warming the planet at a much faster rate than even the fastest warming events of the Phanerozoic, the researchers say. That speed of warming puts species and ecosystems around the world at risk and is causing a rapid rise in sea level. Some other episodes of rapid climate change during the Phanerozoic have sparked mass extinctions.

Rapidly moving toward a warmer climate could spell danger for humans who have mostly lived in a 10 degree Fahrenheit range for global temperature, compared to the 45 degree span of temperatures over the last 485 million years, the researchers say.

"Our entire species evolved to an 'ice house' climate, which doesn't reflect most of geological history," Tierney said. "We are changing the climate into a place that is really out of context for humans. The planet has been and can be warmer – but humans and animals can't adapt that fast."

The collaboration between Tierney and researchers at the Smithsonian began in 2018. The team wanted to provide museum visitors with a curve that charted Earth's global temperature across the Phanerozoic, which began around 540 million years ago and continues into the present day.

The team collected more than 150,000 estimates of ancient temperature calculated from five different chemical indicators for temperature that are preserved in fossilized shells and other types of ancient organic matter. Their colleagues at the University of Bristol created more than 850 model simulations of what Earth's climate could have looked like at different periods of the distant past based on continental position and atmospheric composition. The researchers then  combined these two lines of evidence to create the most accurate curve of how Earth's temperature has varied over the past 485 million years.

Another finding from the study pertains to climate sensitivity, a metric of how much the climate warms for the doubling of carbon dioxide.

"We found that carbon dioxide and temperature are not only really closely related, but related in the same way across 485 million years. We don't see that the climate is more sensitive when it's hot or cold," Tierney said.

In addition to Judd, Tierney and Wing, co-authors on the study are Brian Huber of the Smithsonian, Daniel Lunt and Paul Valdes of the University of Bristol and Isabel Montañez of the University of California, Davis.

[Typhoon Tip]

the issue with species is that that deltas are happening at a faster rate of change than the adaptation rates.   

die -offs will commence well before the destiny of the temperatures are realized.

autotrophic ( producer ) species are most fragile and foot food pyramids - ... academically, the latter become unstable and ultimately the collapse ecologies follow.  mass extinctions 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, Del Rio recorded its 69th day of the year with a low temperature of 80° or above. That broke the record of 68 days that was set just last year. Del Rio has seen a recent explosion in such warm nights.

Climate change is largely responsible. Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect has played little role.

Del Rio's population figures since 1980:

1980 30,034
1990 30,705
2000 35,867
2010 35,591
2020 34,673
2024 34,532

Summers have been warming about 0.7° per decade.

This year also saw Del Rio tie its record for most 100° days with 91 such days. That record was also set just last year.

Overall, recent years have been the warmest on record for Del Rio. 2019-2023 ranked as follows:

2019 10th warmest (tied with 2000)
2020 3rd warmest
2021 2nd warmest
2022 5th warmest
2023 1st warmest

Through September 20th, 2024 is running 0.1° ahead of 2023 for the warmest year on record.

Del Rio's records go back to December 1905.

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, Del Rio recorded its 69th day of the year with a low temperature of 80° or above. That broke the record of 68 days that was set just last year. Del Rio has seen a recent explosion in such warm nights.

Climate change is largely responsible. Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect has played little role.

Del Rio's population figures since 1980:

1980 30,034
1990 30,705
2000 35,867
2010 35,591
2020 34,673
2024 34,532

Summers have been warming about 0.7° per decade.

This year also saw Del Rio tie its record for most 100° days with 91 such days. That record was also set just last year.

Overall, recent years have been the warmest on record for Del Rio. 2019-2023 ranked as follows:

2019 10th warmest (tied with 2000)
2020 3rd warmest
2021 2nd warmest
2022 5th warmest
2023 1st warmest

Through September 20th, 2024 is running 0.1° ahead of 2023 for the warmest year on record.

Del Rio's records go back to December 1905.

Its amazing how warm the 1950s were there, or at least depicted in the graph just before that gap. I wonder about the accuracy and/or warm bias (if any) for those records taken then. If accurate, wonder what drove the warmth then and there. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Its amazing how warm the 1950s were there, or at least depicted in the graph just before that gap. I wonder about the accuracy and/or warm bias (if any) for those records taken then. If accurate, wonder what drove the warmth then and there. 

I'm not sure whether the 1950s era temperatures preceding the break were from a somewhat different location. Here are the Del Rio Area threaded summer means:

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure whether the 1950s era temperatures preceding the break were from a somewhat different location. Here are the Del Rio Area threaded summer means:

That plot makes more sense, thanks. It’s as though the 1950s was more like the 1990s, both being pretty warm decades. But now, we have way overshot both.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/21/2024 at 2:34 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure whether the 1950s era temperatures preceding the break were from a somewhat different location. Here are the Del Rio Area threaded summer means:

Really helps to highlight the dirty little secret that nobody is allowed to utter. Contrary to "The Narrative" (TM), NOAA's temperature data consistently WARMS the PAST and COOLS the PRESENT when it comes to the highest quality stations - i.e., WBAN stations that have always observed on midnight-to-midnight days and have always been manned by meteorologists and/or trained observers from the army or navy. Too frequently this is hand-waved away by claiming it's due to the urban heat island effect due to these stations typically [but not always] being located in or near cities.

Just look at the Del Rio graph. They tacked on 2F or more to all the early data - the handful of years in the early 1950s, and even into the colder summers in the 1970s - despite all of the data from the 1960s and 1970s being from the same location. And as @donsutherland1points out there's little evidence of explosive growth and urbanization driving these trends. So, what is the reason for the adjustments? I suspect it's largely due to pairwise homogenization, which is fine and dandy. But isn't a serious problem when a subset of the data (WBAN data) - and I would argue the superior quality data - has a trend that substantially deviates from the whole of the data?

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-advanced-civilizations-overheat-planets-years.html

   (  https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06737 )

 

one of, if not the most destructive geological disaster in the entire history of this planet may turn out to be the arrival of human innovation

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-advanced-civilizations-overheat-planets-years.html

   (  https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06737 )

 

one of, if not the most destructive geological disaster in the entire history of this planet may turn out to be the innovation of man

I wonder if the first deciphered contact will be a Eulogy. As always …… 

[chubbs]

Chris Colose on recent paleoclimate study going back 500+ million years. See his twitter thread for his perspective on technical details.

[chubbs]

Climate models predict abrupt intensification of northern wildfires due to permafrost thawing

With this ensemble modeling approach, the team demonstrated that by the mid to late 21st century anthropogenic permafrost thawing in the Subarctic and Arctic regions will be quite extensive. In many areas, the excess soil water can drain quickly, which leads to a sudden drop in soil moisture, subsequent surface warming and atmospheric drying.

"These conditions will intensify wildfires," says Dr. In-Won Kim, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at the IBS Center for Climate Physics in Busan, South Korea. "In the second half of this century, our model simulations show an abrupt switch from virtually no fires to very intensive fires within just a few years," she adds.

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-climate-abrupt-intensification-northern-wildfires.html

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/24/2024 at 7:39 AM, chubbs said:

Chris Colose on recent paleoclimate study going back 500+ million years. See his twitter thread for his perspective on technical details.

Funny, the so-called "skeptics" [i.e., deniers] don't believe recent OBSERVED temperatures, but 100% believe some BS temperature reconstruction of 500 million years ago. What a joke!