Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[csnavywx]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've often wondered how sci fi it really is to speculated a mega displacement event - no sense describing what is meant by THAT.

Little known ... I read or heard a story someplace - the age old cry of the rumor mill LOL, admittedly - where climate stations owned by different sovereign origins, situated out over the expanse of the Greenland ice cap - but as typically the case, are in comm's relationships with one another pretty regularly ... - all experienced an "Ice quake."  Ice quakes are not altogether that unusual, in and of themselves, but having them all experience the same description, at the same span of minutes, within the same hour, stationed 20 or 30 nautical miles apart, is either an extraordinary act of coincidence at massive scales, ...or something else was taking place.

Later that day, they started failing direction finding tech, because their coordinates were all off.  Tapping devices, giving shakes ..maybe the batts are low..etc.   Turned out, all three stations ... including the ice they were anchored upon, up and slid some 1/4 to 1/3 of a mi.  But being situated out over the open expanse, where by there is nothing to differentiate against any horizon fixtures, they were unaware this was happening, the were actually, en masse, in motion. Other than the rumble and shaking going on as they moved. 

This was later attributed to increase basal flow rates lifting and "lubricating" the glacial foundation, and it lost anchor footing temporarily and away she went.  It stopped... obviously. 

But this business with the "Dooms Day Glacier," as the press has come to denote, kinda hearkens to a similar scenario.  I haven't dug in - just on the surface so far...   Only here, the water ice that was essentially holding the land -based ice, has always preventing that. 

All the recent calving events having taken toll of the interstitial integrity of the mass "damming", ... maybe something like a catastrophic displacement nears a threshold. And the one that 'rumored' to have begun and halted one fateful day in mid summer over the vast expanse of Greenland, could take place. Only in the case of Thwaites, it doesn't halt.

I think that fear must be implicit in this, already. 

 

The eyewitness accounts from Larsen A when it disintegrated were pretty eye opening. It went fast, as did B. C is looking a bit less healthy nowadays.

As for Thwaites, losing that shelf in the next decade would set up some pretty bad news for mid-century. There's not much to keep that mass from moving at an increasingly faster clip once the plug is degraded.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Shortly put, 'make going green a profit wagon,' somehow some way, and the world'll become a "Pandora" utopia ...really fast.

 

Even shorter Question being … Will the box remain closed when balanced? As always …

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've often wondered how sci fi it really is to speculated a mega displacement event - no sense describing what is meant by THAT.

Little known ... I read or heard a story someplace - the age old cry of the rumor mill LOL, admittedly - where climate stations owned by different sovereign origins, situated out over the expanse of the Greenland ice cap - but as typically the case, are in comm's relationships with one another pretty regularly ... - all experienced an "Ice quake."  Ice quakes are not altogether that unusual, in and of themselves, but having them all experience the same description, at the same span of minutes, within the same hour, stationed 20 or 30 nautical miles apart, is either an extraordinary act of coincidence at massive scales, ...or something else was taking place.

Later that day, they started failing direction finding tech, because their coordinates were all off.  Tapping devices, giving shakes ..maybe the batts are low..etc.   Turned out, all three stations ... including the ice they were anchored upon, up and slid some 1/4 to 1/3 of a mi.  But being situated out over the open expanse, where by there is nothing to differentiate against any horizon fixtures, they were unaware this was happening, the were actually, en masse, in motion. Other than the rumble and shaking going on as they moved. 

This was later attributed to increase basal flow rates lifting and "lubricating" the glacial foundation, and it lost anchor footing temporarily and away she went.  It stopped... obviously. 

But this business with the "Dooms Day Glacier," as the press has come to denote, kinda hearkens to a similar scenario.  I haven't dug in - just on the surface so far...   Only here, the water ice that was essentially holding the land -based ice, has always preventing that. 

All the recent calving events having taken toll of the interstitial integrity of the mass "damming", ... maybe something like a catastrophic displacement nears a threshold. And the one that 'rumored' to have begun and halted one fateful day in mid summer over the vast expanse of Greenland, could take place. Only in the case of Thwaites, it doesn't halt.

I think that fear must be implicit in this, already. 

 

It's extremely ironic because now that oil has been found on Greenland I fear that will be one more source of climate catastrophe.  I see mining procedures have already begun there.  Some are quite excited at the ice melting and the prospects of the riches to be made from it as  climate catastrophe ensues.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

PS climate scientists are talking about being gagged by Facebook while fossil fuel companies post misleading and antiscientific ads.

 

More info upcoming.

 

[Ji]

Lol people thinking we are in a climate crisis. Get a grip

[buckeye]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:34 PM, LibertyBell said:

Some hope from elsewhere

https://twitter.com/i/events/1472719859850956800

Former student activist Gabriel Boric becomes Chile's youngest president
Leftist lawmaker Gabriel Boric defeated right-wing candidate Jose Antonio Kast in Chile's presidential runoff on Sunday. The 35-year-old, who rose to prominence leading protests in 2011 demanding better education, will be the nation's youngest leader, Reuters reported. Boric has promised to address economic inequality, raise taxes on the rich and boost green investments, according to the BBC.

Who is Gabriel Boric?
"A native of Punta Arenas, in Chile's far south, Boric as a student led the Federation of Students at the University of Chile in Santiago. He rose to prominence leading protests in 2011 demanding improved and cheaper education. By 2014, still in his 20s, he had joined the national Congress as a lower-house lawmaker, representing Chile's vast and sparsely populated southernmost region of Magallanes." — Reuters

finally success! at least there are still some smart nations out there

Sounds like he took a page from Hugo Chavez.   Redistribution of wealth and ending income inequality.  Worked well for Venezuela.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Sounds like he took a page from Hugo Chavez.   Redistribution of wealth and ending income inequality.  Worked well for Venezuela.

 

 

 

Hey the rich aint helping shit

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Sounds like he took a page from Hugo Chavez.   Redistribution of wealth and ending income inequality.  Worked well for Venezuela.

 

 

 

The people who are against it are puppets who repeat corporate brainwashing talking points which is absolutely hilarious-- they have puppet strings on their backs and dont even realize it.

Dude it's the way the rest of the developed world works, America is the dysfunctional nation not them.  Talking about Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc.

[LibertyBell]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:11 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

My hunch is innovation will control nature - probably with separate order dire consequences - prior any models/tech exactly recreating historical examples. 

Ex… controlling the weather somehow  using “forced orchestrated quantum perturbation”  - basically, telling the weather what to do rather than waiting around for chaos  

The problem with modeling is, it will never “see” modulations that have yet to spontaneously occur. That chaos factor is a hard stop.   Modeling will always to some degree be at mercy to emergent properties via fractal chaos that have no roots in the prior states. 

Somewhere out there in the future there may be a technology that can force quantum states in real time; understanding why fractals occur is no longer necessary. 
 

until it sets off a new series of unintended destinies. 

the fundamental failing of models is not being able to model quantum states.  It's why control can have unintended consequences, if you can't predict something to an nth level of exactitude then trying to control it will have unintended consequences.  I love fractals as much as you do, knowledge of them is essential to properly model nature because of remarkable similarities separated by multiple orders of magnitude....knowledge of fractals will actually help simplify the process of modeling by using what we already know to model what we dont know.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Big Cali gas leak failed clean up and methane release blamed on Halliburton

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1473374415198973953

 

 

[IowaStorm05]

I have asked about the mid term future of our climate, specifically to do with snowfall during the winter at a few locations I’ve lived in.

Reno, NV and coastal Southern New England are two such areas that receive around 20-40 inches of snow per year on average.

i have suggested that places like this, which tend to have erratic amounts of winter snowfall seasonal totals from one year to the next, might soon start to occasionally go through an entire winter season without, say, receiving one inch of snow the entire season.

in 2019-2020 winter season I read online in some sources that revealed parts of the mid Atlantic failed to receive an inch of snow that winter, but those locations were in cities that average quite a bit less snowfall than New England’s south coast or even Reno. 
 

it’s a thought. Meanwhile I found this screenshot with the source in the browser bar I thought I could post 

 

So far Coastal New England looks like it has actually seen subtly more snow in recent years but Reno has seen less. These can possibly change direction in future years of course.

Again my focus is for locations in the United States which do receive snowfall every winter, and historically have always been guaranteed to receive at least some amount of snow each winter but have an overall average snowfall of less than 40 inches per year. 
 

other than the screenshot I provided here is a group of people who did some study on the subject: https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-the-case-of-the-shifting-snow

 

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I have asked about the mid term future of our climate, specifically to do with snowfall during the winter at a few locations I’ve lived in.

Reno, NV and coastal Southern New England are two such areas that receive around 20-40 inches of snow per year on average.

i have suggested that places like this, which tend to have erratic amounts of winter snowfall seasonal totals from one year to the next, might soon start to occasionally go through an entire winter season without, say, receiving one inch of snow the entire season.

in 2019-2020 winter season I read online in some sources that revealed parts of the mid Atlantic failed to receive an inch of snow that winter, but those locations were in cities that average quite a bit less snowfall than New England’s south coast or even Reno. 
 

it’s a thought. Meanwhile I found this screenshot with the source in the browser bar I thought I could post 

 

So far Coastal New England looks like it has actually seen subtly more snow in recent years but Reno has seen less. These can possibly change direction in future years of course.

Again my focus is for locations in the United States which do receive snowfall every winter, and historically have always been guaranteed to receive at least some amount of snow each winter but have an overall average snowfall of less than 40 inches per year. 
 

other than the screenshot I provided here is a group of people who did some study on the subject: https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-the-case-of-the-shifting-snow

 

Interesting. Below are snow trends since 1940 for some eastern cities that I have been tracking. My tabulation agrees with the chart above. I95 cities from Philly to Boston are doing well. Other northeast is mixed. Cities south of philly are down.  My take - warming is reducing the opportunity for snow, but increasing moisture and/or storm track shifts are offsetting in some areas.

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, chubbs said:

Interesting. Below are snow trends since 1940 for some eastern cities that I have been tracking. My tabulation agrees with the chart above. I95 cities from Philly to Boston are doing well. Other northeast is mixed. Cities south of philly are down.  My take - warming is reducing the opportunity for snow, but increasing moisture and/or storm track shifts are offsetting in some areas.

storm track shifts causing less suppressed and offshore storms increasing snowfall totals in NE cities?

so storms that would give DC and Balt snowfall and then head out to sea are coming farther north and staying closer to the coast (because of warmer SST)

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

storm track shifts causing less suppressed and offshore storms increasing snowfall totals in NE cities?

so storms that would give DC and Balt snowfall and then head out to sea are coming farther north and staying closer to the coast (because of warmer SST)

More the difference between State College and phl/nyc/bos, I95 vs interior.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

More the difference between State College and phl/nyc/bos, I95 vs interior.

yup there were some blockbuster winters in State College in the early-mid 90s (mid 90s for us too).

So has the average storm track been moving north and west or south and east?

Also we must remember the 70s and 80s were a huge aberration in low snowfall totals in (for example) NYC.

 

 

[chubbs]

On 12/24/2021 at 12:01 PM, LibertyBell said:

yup there were some blockbuster winters in State College in the early-mid 90s (mid 90s for us too).

So has the average storm track been moving north and west or south and east?

Also we must remember the 70s and 80s were a huge aberration in low snowfall totals in (for example) NYC.

 

 

I haven't seen any studies on local storm tracks. But have seen enough Monmouth County jackpots to know that warming alone doesn't explain our local patterns.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, chubbs said:

I haven't seen any studies on local storm tracks. But have seen enough Monmouth County jackpots to know that warming alone doesn't explain our local patterns.

I mean it would make more sense if storms that were suppressed and going to go south and east of here were now hitting the jersey shore and long island because of a stronger southeast ridge....the north trend on modeling seems to be real

 

[chubbs]

Its not the heat, its the humidity.

Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.

https://www.pnas.org/content/119/6/e2117832119

[chubbs]

Wind generation in Texas is soaring as a winter storm whips the state, adding an unexpected surge of electric supply as the bitter cold drives up demand on the state’s power grid. Wind farms were producing about 17.5 gigawatts at 9:55 a.m. local time, 85% higher than the day-ahead forecast, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot as the grid operator is known. Wind is accounting for about 30% of the grid’s electricity supply. A gigawatt is enough to power about 200,000 Texas homes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-gives-unexpected-boost-texas-165429559.html

[LibertyBell]

On 2/4/2022 at 12:13 PM, chubbs said:

Wind generation in Texas is soaring as a winter storm whips the state, adding an unexpected surge of electric supply as the bitter cold drives up demand on the state’s power grid. Wind farms were producing about 17.5 gigawatts at 9:55 a.m. local time, 85% higher than the day-ahead forecast, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot as the grid operator is known. Wind is accounting for about 30% of the grid’s electricity supply. A gigawatt is enough to power about 200,000 Texas homes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-gives-unexpected-boost-texas-165429559.html

this is excellent and the future looks bright for both wind and solar there, we're building a 300 mile array of windfarms just offshore here in NY and NJ too.

 

[Vice-Regent]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is excellent and the future looks bright for both wind and solar there, we're building a 300 mile array of windfarms just offshore here in NY and NJ too.

 

As always these technologies are fossil fuel extenders and a luxury seldomly appreciated. The amount of material inputs and the general lifespan of a wind or solar farm do not make them permanent solutions.

With that said I think it is promising and a good investment if you live in the United States.

[LibertyBell]

Do you know of the Tokamak project in Europe to produce controllable nuclear fusion?  They just announced they achieved a world record 59 megajoules in 5 seconds in a controlled nuclear fusion reaction!

[LibertyBell]

controlled nuclear fusion-- here we come!

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1491539482973249539

 

 

[Vice-Regent]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

controlled nuclear fusion-- here we come!

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1491539482973249539

 

 

Obvious sarcasm I hope. Why did we wait so long this won't come soon enough to save the billions of people who rely on fossil fuel energy.

I do not endorse limitless supplies of energy for a small minority or at all.

[LibertyBell]

Groundbreaking on the new 25 mile windfarm being built off of Long Island....it will power 70,000 homes on Long Island by 2023

[Vice-Regent]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Groundbreaking on the new 25 mile windfarm being built off of Long Island....it will power 70,000 homes on Long Island by 2023

Top of the shelf cognitive dissonance. I believe shorebirds use that area for migrations as well.

Civilization has no future brother. Someone in the future might prefer to eat the shorebirds than sit inside a climate controlled house for rich people powered by offshore wind.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Been tracking ENSO, it's gone into an anomaly warming with -PNA's, and actually more La Nina's. Didn't have to go that path. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Next Winter will be year 7 of -PNA/reverse-El Nino. Makes you wonder about ENSO. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Top of the shelf cognitive dissonance. I believe shorebirds use that area for migrations as well.

Civilization has no future brother. Someone in the future might prefer to eat the shorebirds than sit inside a climate controlled house for rich people powered by offshore wind.

Aren't those windfarms supposed to be computer controlled so the blades on an individual turbine would stop if a bird was going to hit it?

I think birds dying by window impacts might be more common.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Next Winter will be year 7 of -PNA/reverse-El Nino. Makes you wonder about ENSO. 

We might need to start climate engineering, is it possible to control ENSO, so that el ninos and la ninas alternate every other year?