Updated 90+ Days 37 year Comparison Heat Island PHL Airport vs Rural KMQS Airport - amazing stats

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

Below is some incredible data that really highlights the Heat Island problem that is the PHL Airport and of course many other airports that folks point to as examples of warming. Just look at these numbers comparing KPHL to KMQS (FYI this is not my data site) for the last 37 years. What really stunned me was the fact that while rural locations like KMQS airport have seen less 90 degree days with each successive decade the PHL Heat Island effect gets worse with each decade. The KMQS airport has seen the number of 90+ days per decade decline as follows;

17 in the 1980's/ 15 in the 1990's / 9 in the 2000's and now only 6 in a average year in this current decade of the 2010's - conversely PHL Airport has gone in a total different direction with an average of 27 ninety plus days in the 1980's / 31 in the 1990's /22 in the 2000's and now a jaw dropping 32 such days in the 2010's - if you only followed urban airport data you would be inclined to believe that we are warming at an alarming rate....however when viewing a rural location we are seeing the opposite. I am not saying one or the other is correct but to just point to an observation at a heat island airport along the I95 corridor is not a true representation of the region. That being said not many folks live above 650 ft in the PHL suburbs like where KMQS is situated. But if nothing else closer analysis of non-airport locations should be taken into account for what is a very complex situation and not fall prey to analysis only based on official airport observations sites that are sited in locations like PHL in a swamp at near sea level where most folks in the PHL area do not live. 

[The Iceman]

great post Paul, very very interesting stuff.

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

great post Paul, very very interesting stuff.

Thanks - on another weather site they believe the only explanation for this data is equipment failure at KMQS...oh and the fact that my station supports the KMQS data for the last 16 years means my data is also faulty - I guess the same equipment failure must have hit both KMQS and East Nantmeal back in 2004....

[ChescoWx]

As you can tell I am not too busy at work today - so had some time to dive into the numbers (I had some questions from both this site, others and from twitter to compare the KMQS (NWS/FAA) obs to my East Nantmeal Obs for the last 11 years to help validate some of the data - the results are basically identical

As you can see below and as expected the data is exceptionally close :

Average High Temperatures show less than a 0.1 degree variance

Average Low Temperatures indicate a 0.4 degree variance

Overall Average only 0.2 degrees of a variance

[ChescoWx]

I wanted to share an update as I made an error in my original 90+ day calculation. The years impacted were 2004-2007 - these have been corrected and shared below - apologies for the error!!

[ChescoWx]

To complete the analysis on the KMQS Chester County PA Airport obs vs. East Nantmeal Township PA - I did indeed finally complete the analysis.

The results confirmed the highly statistical significance of the relationship between the data between KMQS and East Nantmeal.  Results below:

- 11 1/2 years of daily data from January 2008 through June 2019 were compared

- 138 months of data were reviewed

- 4,199 days of daily High and Low Temperatures were included in the data sets

- The average high / low at East Nantmeal Township was 60.75/44.60

- The average high / low at KMQS was 60.84/45.0

The difference in high temperatures was 0.09 degrees warmer at KMQS

The difference in low temperatures was 0.40 degrees warmer at KMQS

Overall average temperature was 0.248 degrees warmer at KMQS vs East Nantmeal

[ChescoWx]

With it appearing increasingly likely we are done with 90+ days in Western Chester County. To put a point on the differences between the PHL heat island and Western Chester County... With the 26 days over 90 this summer at PHL - Philly Int'L has now experienced 82 days over 90 just in the last 3 years since 2017.....here in East Nantmeal and KMQS over the same 3 years only 7 in East Nantmeal and 8 at KMQS . Of greater interest over the last 16 years since 2004 we have only had 69 days over 90 in total.