Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Looks like another active two day period with the front slowly progressing southward and multiple MCS's coming through the area, Enhanced risk this Sat and tor warning already out this a.m. north of LaCrosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Looks like another active two day period with the front slowly progressing southward and multiple MCs's coming through the area, Enhanced risk this Sat and tor warning already out this a.m. north of LaCrosse. Things look pretty primed this afternoon for much of Southern Wisconsin for mainly a wind damage threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 70 mph winds and multiple reports of trees down across northern La Crosse County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 I always find it amazing that svr t storms can occur once again over territory previously worked over twelve hours earlier. But MCS's can especially be like that. Per SPC meso discussion the activity should gradually begin to move farther south in WI later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 The MCS along the IA/MN, if it maintains, will be the story for today...and a likely derecho, which would take aim for S WI/N IL. It developed 9-10PM last night near the MT/WY/SD border area. It has had widespread reports, some of which have been sig. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1122 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN... OUTAGAMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN... * UNTIL NOON CDT. * AT 1121 AM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLACK CREEK, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF APPLETON, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... APPLETON AND BLACK CREEK AROUND 1130 AM CDT. KAUKAUNA AND LITTLE CHUTE AROUND 1135 AM CDT. GREEN BAY AROUND 1155 AM CDT. BELLEVUE TOWN AROUND 1200 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MACKVILLE, LITTLE RAPIDS, WAYSIDE, MORRISON, DE PERE, FREEDOM, LAMBEAU FIELD, LEDGEVIEW, HOBART AND LEO FRIGO BRIDGE. PEOPLE AT DOWNTOWN GREEN BAY SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Funnel cloud seen by law enforcement at Appleton and 67 mph gust reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019 WIC009-087-201700- /O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190720T1700Z/ BROWN WI-OUTAGAMIE WI- 1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR WESTERN BROWN AND OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES... AT 1134 AM CDT, A RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLACK CREEK OR NEAR FREEDPM, OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF APPLETON, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GREEN BAY AND BELLEVUE TOWN BY 1150 AM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MACKVILLE, LITTLE RAPIDS, WAYSIDE, MORRISON, DE PERE, FREEDOM, LAMBEAU FIELD, LEDGEVIEW, HOBART AND LEO FRIGO BRIDGE. PEOPLE AT DOWNTOWN GREEN BAY SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT, A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1110 AM TSTM WND DMG NEW LONDON 44.38N 88.75W 07/20/2019 WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITHIN THE TOWN. MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED. MANY STREETS COVERED WITH DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS. POWER IS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 That tornado is about 15 miles north of the airshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: That tornado is about 15 miles north of the airshow. I would expect the air show to get strong straight line winds but haven't heard anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Gusted t0 45 last i heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Looks like central to ne IA into southern WI is becoming the prime area to watch for possible derecho development later today per SPC multiple parameters and radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Looks like central to ne IA into southern WI is becoming the prime area to watch for possible derecho development later today per SPC multiple parameters and radars.It’s gonna be hard for any development to occur until post frontal passage, due to the strong capping...as evident by ~16C at 700mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Video of wind blowing around tents in Appleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 With 2 rounds of severe storms within the last 15 hours, radar-estimated rainfall is 7-10" west of Cadillac MI, to Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Round 1 underway, thinking Round 2 will weaken after this first batch hits, but who knows? It's been a pretty active few days after going 10 days with just a trace of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Starting to hear from people back home in central WI that the damage from the first round this morning was pretty nuts. Winds of an intensity seen only once in a generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201859Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area. Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should convective trends become more clear. DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more likely. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 That mesoscale discussion is the one I have been waiting for. 9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Mesoscale Discussion 1546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201859Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area. Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should convective trends become more clear. DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more likely. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Video of wind blowing around tents in Appleton Here is the actual video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 North of Woodstock. That Wisconsin complex boundary just sagged south and winds turned north with a quick 5 degree drop in temps. Was hoping it would hang up. Edit: Make that an 8 degree drop. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Storms moving into the Detroit metro with 60 mph winds. Stebo's area has been getting it lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Yeah MI has been drowned out by the MN WI stuff bu they've been getting hammered. Had some long trainers over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 New meso complex developing in central IA in 14C 700 mb temps...initial svr storm diving southeast....somewhat unexpected direction to me....will have to watch to see what happens. If this continues central IL may soon be under the gun this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 And here's the new meso discussion Mesoscale Discussion 1554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...portions of northern MO...west-central IL and southeast IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 202354Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat may persist into portions of northern MO and west-central IL this evening as a bowing storm cluster shifts southeast from IA. Damaging winds will be the main concern and a watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central IA is becoming better organized this evening as it has begun interacting with outflow boundary from earlier convection. Wind gusts greater than 60 mph have already been measured with these storms, which are occurring in a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg and 2-6 km lapse rates around 8 C/km. Effective shear across the region is modest, around 25-35 kt, which is sufficient to maintain organized updrafts. Forecast RAP soundings indicate a deeply mixed boundary layer with favorable conditions for strong downdrafts. While storms may track south of stronger deep layer flow, buoyancy will remain more than adequate to maintain convection, especially if upscale growth into a mature bowing segment continues. As such, a severe threat with damaging wind potential could persist south and east of WW 534. Current track guidance shows convection near the end of the watch in the next 30-60 minutes, so a downstream watch will likely be needed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 I have enhanced disappointment, it was meh at the airport, last night was 100x more interesting and yeah back home got hit good, while I was at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Had 40-45mph wind gusts here with the storms/OFB that moved through late afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 This Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m. EDT I would watch the cells se of the flash flood warning in northern Illinois as they slowly move eastward into Kankakee county for torrential rains at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Yesterday morning's derecho meant business. Gusts of up to 90 mph laid waste to a corridor between Wisconsin Rapids and Appleton, leaving tens of thousands without power. Damage is so extensive that power is expected to be out for several more days and the mayor of Wisconsin Rapids declared the city a disaster area. Surprised that there's no mainstream coverage of this event whatsoever. These aren't little unincorporated villages we're talking about but modestly sized population centers. (Maybe it's because no one was live streaming the event on social media?) https://www.wsaw.com/content/news/Wisconsin-Rapids-Mayor-Shelter--512989341.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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