Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT. * AT 344 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CAMP RIPLEY, OR NEAR LITTLE FALLS, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LITTLE FALLS, PIERZ, LASTRUP, CAMP RIPLEY, MORRILL, BUCKMAN, HARDING, GENOLA, HILLMAN, LITTLE FALLS AIRPORT AND CAMP RIPLEY JUNCTION. The storm seems to be on the boundary with backed se winds....although I agree with you that it looks much more outflow dominated per the svr warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, hlcater said: Funnel cloud on a storm with no 0-3km CAPE, no surface based parcels and that's outflow dominant? I understand covering your bases and being safe but I'd probably call BS on a funnel report, even from a trained spotter, in the environment that storm is in unless I had a picture. From a chaser stream: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 SPC backing off Tornado threat? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524... VALID 192053Z - 192300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION...A EAST-WEST LINE OF CELLS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE AND TURN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE STORM MODE IS CELLULAR AS OF 21Z, BACKBUILDING IS LIKELY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR, AIDED BY 35+ KT SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, AND WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND ACCELERATE WITH A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVER MINNESOTA, AND BEFORE OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY MERGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: From a chaser stream: Super outflow dominant, looks exactly how I expected it would. 0 tornado threat with that storm. The one to the east however, is working on becoming surface based. It could produce, but strength/longevity of any tornado may be precluded by more linear convection developing to the south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 typical with these set ups with extreme instability this time of year..storms aren't totally surface based and become outflow dominated.... supercell composite up to 64...but it looks like the true warm sector capped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 TWIN CITIES PTSUNNY 91 80 SE16G26 29.62F HX 109 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 TW for Southern Kanabec County and SE Morrison county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Storm spotters report funnel cloud 11 miles east of Little Falls, MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Storm spotters report funnel cloud 11 miles east of Little Falls, MN Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 412 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 MNC097-192130- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190719T2130Z/ Morrison MN- 412 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTY... At 411 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pierz, or 17 miles east of Little Falls, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Pierz, Lastrup, Buckman, Genola and Hillman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 supercell structure immediately south of St. Cloud organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 pretty much sums it up REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 411 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 MAIN CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE PARAMETER SPACES YOU'LL SEE IN JULY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND TAP INTO THIS MORE- FAVORABLE AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 80 EXIST PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 ACROSS MN AND WI, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF WARMING SO FAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG, ALONG WITH SPRING-LIKE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KTS THANKS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUMMER JETSTREAK OF 130+ KTS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. THESE PARAMETERS EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW ALREADY TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ORTONVILLE TO MORA LINE. SO FAR, THESE SUPERCELLS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH AND HAVE THUS ONLY CARRIED A LARGE HAIL THREAT, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLF- BALL SIZED OR LARGER HAIL. SHOULD THESE STORMS BECOME SURFACE- BASED AS THEY HEAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CREATING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 15-20 KTS BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THIS TORNADO THREAT, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN OWING TO A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AT 700 MB. OUR 18Z SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING SHOWED 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14.1 C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY WOULD EASILY BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA, A CONDITIONAL (YET SMALL) THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS DOES EXIST FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 possible TDS on radar near Henriette, MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Holy crap Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 428 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 MNC115-WIC013-192200- /O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190719T2200Z/ Pine MN-Burnett WI- 428 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINE AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES... At 425 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm was located over Henriette, moving southeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Pine City, Hinckley, Rock Creek, Grantsburg, Trade Lake, Brook Park, Henriette, Branstad, Randall, Falun, Greely, Phantom Lake, Chengwatana State Forest, Saint Croix State Park, Four Corners, West Rock, Alpha, Trade River, Beroun, and Yellow Lake. This also includes interstate 35 between Rush City and Hinckley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 4572 9287 4573 9285 4573 9314 4598 9314 4598 9305 4606 9305 4595 9239 4573 9247 4573 9253 4564 9253 4564 9289 TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 295DEG 41KT 4584 9304 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.75IN WIND...90MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 got to watch the tail end Charles (storms on the SW flanks) if they can remain discrete and hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: got to watch the tail end Charles (storms on the SW flanks) if they can remain discrete and hook Much higher chance of becoming surface based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Warning MNC025-WIC095-192215- /O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0120.190719T2133Z-190719T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 433 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 The National Weather Service in The Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Chisago County in east central Minnesota... Northwestern Polk County in northwestern Wisconsin... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 433 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rock Creek, or near Pine City, moving southeast at 40 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Chisago and northwestern Polk Counties, including the following locations... Harris, Rush City Airport, Wolf Creek, Cushing and Wild River State Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4545 9261 4564 9314 4573 9314 4573 9285 4564 9288 4565 9253 4572 9253 4573 9246 TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 294DEG 34KT 4577 9298 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.75IN WIND...80MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 436 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 MNC115-WIC013-192200- /O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190719T2200Z/ Pine MN-Burnett WI- 436 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINE AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES... At 434 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm was located over Rock Creek, or near Pine City, moving southeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. Golf ball size hail was reported just north of Henriette at 430 PM CDT. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Pine City, Hinckley, Rock Creek, Grantsburg, Trade Lake, Brook Park, Henriette, Branstad, Randall, Falun, Greely, Phantom Lake, Chengwatana State Forest, Four Corners, West Rock, Alpha, Trade River, Beroun, Yellow Lake, and Saint Croix State Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Much higher chance of becoming surface based. There are two weak rotations near Princeton, MN, possibly proving your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 file this day under "tornado potential not fully realized" SWOMCD SPC MCD 192215 WIZ000-192345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 192215Z - 192345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL TRANSITION INTO BOWING SEGMENTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INTENSE BOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN HAVE BEGUN TO TRANSITION INTO BOWING CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY APPARENT IN THICK HCR/CLOUD STREET CU FIELD STREAMING INTO ONGOING CONVECTION. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED DEVELOPING INTO THIS INFLOW. 2-6 KM LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM ARE AIDING IN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2+ INCH HAIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. THIS HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO A BOW ECHO, THE HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A 40-50 KT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT (POSSIBLY EVEN GREATER THAN 80 MPH). IN ADDITION TO INTENSE WIND POTENTIAL, QLCS TORNADOES THROUGH MESOVORTEX PROCESSES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGION VWP WIND PROFILES SHOW ENHANCED VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF EFFECTIVE SRH GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2 ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST STORM TRACK BRINGS THE LEAD SUPERCELL/BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS SAWYER COUNTY WI TO THE EDGE OF WW 524 BY 23Z AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI. ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 impressive PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 524 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0514 PM TSTM WND GST CUSHING 45.57N 92.65W 07/19/2019 M84 MPH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO SUSTAINED WIND 73 MPH FOR 5 MINUTES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 The very rare PDS T-storm watch.. why so very rare? I think some forecasters would just make this a tornado watch (says likely tornadoes)...others this extremely strongly worded blue box... RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 550 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 105 MPH EXPECTED SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SUMMARY...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CLUSTER IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING BOW ECHO THAT WILL ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SWATHS OF HIGH-END, DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 I hope this doesn't turn southeast once it gets here, we have been absolutely slammed since I came into work. Over 1.50" of rain 2 instances of hail 3/4" each time, and a new severe warning to my north moving SE at 20 with more wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 That complex in NW Wisconsin looks to have the right blinker on, even Madison and Milwaukee may be in its sights if it can maintain in this high instability environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, DanLarsen34 said: That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998. That one came barreling through at night here as well, even though I don't personally remember it (for you folks in Madison too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Absolutely amazing PDS svr storm watch....but I worry that it will turn more se than progged and move to Madison and Milwaukee then possibly down the lake as occasionally happens rather than moving east to Green Bay. Will have to watch that western most cell in the developing line which seems to be moving more southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: I hope this doesn't turn southeast once it gets here, we have been absolutely slammed since I came into work. Over 1.50" of rain 2 instances of hail 3/4" each time, and a new severe warning to my north moving SE at 20 with more wind and hail. The strong se component to the storms would seem to favor a track maybe in the Milwaukee grand rapids corridor. I know the models that have been showing the bow racing east across the southern up and northern lower are going to be completely off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998. I have seen many 90's....don't recall a 105 or even 100 I wonder why they went with 105 anyway? rather the a nice even number like 100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 they did hint in the 1630 and 2000 dicsussions about saying straight up a derecho threat. so, with the reports we're getting and the environment we're dealing with, this seems right if you're emphasizing a derecho with potential spinups on the front edge compared to supercells that could also gust quite high. I think it's appropriate wording for the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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