Stebo Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, outflow said: The strong se component to the storms would seem to favor a track maybe in the Milwaukee grand rapids corridor. I know the models that have been showing the bow racing east across the southern up and northern lower are going to be completely off Yeah I would probably split the difference, it could do a hard right once it gets across the lake though with the storm motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 I wonder how much possible backbuilding to the sw might occur with this line. Current temps of 16 at 700 mb won't help convection, but the line is moving into 14 degree areas even as it is progged to intensify and move east per models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah I would probably split the difference, it could do a hard right once it gets across the lake though with the storm motion. I think it had me fooled, started to turn right once it crossed into Wisconsin, and seeing the systems the last couple days do this and sag further southward than progged I thought it would be the start of a trend, but it has eased up a bit on the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update? I would especially considering the magnitude of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update? I can certainly see it happening. Only 2 high risks have ever been issued on 01z outlook (April 30,2010 and May 22,2004) Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 60% for wind would not be too unlikely given what seems to be coming together this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikcarsky Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours Represent...or I would, if I weren't out of state. Watching this keenly, wonder what I'll come back to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Gust front/outflow can be seen moving through the Twin Cities on MPX radar at this time with some cells starting to form. Bears watching for possible westward development of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524... VALID 192353Z - 200130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 524 WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WW 525 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...A LARGE, HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI CONTINUES A TRANSITION INTO A BOW ECHO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY TRENDS FROM KDLH AND KARX SHOW INCREASING MIDLEVEL VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 80 KTS IN THE 8-12 KFT LAYER. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT DOWNDRAFTS ARE INCREASING AND A REAR INFLOW JET MAY BE DEVELOPING. KARX VWP IS ALSO SHOWING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NICELY, WITH 35-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER. AS THE BOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS STORMS TRACK INTO WW 525. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WFO ARX COULD EXPAND WW 525 SOUTHWARD IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF WW 524 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE MAIN BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL MN, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKENING FURTHER WEST AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS FURTHER WEST INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING BOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Storm tops to 67kft northeast of Eau Claire. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I have seen many 90's....don't recall a 105 or even 100 I wonder why they went with 105 anyway? rather the a nice even number like 100 Well they were right. EAU CLAIRE,WI (EAU) ASOS reports gust of 91 knots (105.1 mph) from NW @ 2356Z -- KEAU 192356Z 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Looking forward to the storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Looking forward to the storms later High and dry. Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: High and dry. Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging. . And even if it does, it is practically guaranteed to be in a weakening state by then. Less shear with southward extent and although there is a lot of instability around even well into the overnight hours, that is some nasty mid level warmth as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said: Well they were right. EAU CLAIRE,WI (EAU) ASOS reports gust of 91 knots (105.1 mph) from NW @ 2356Z -- KEAU 192356Z 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006 47kts? That isn't even severe criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 that's what I was wondering. did someone/something mis-code the gust to a different part of the metar? or was it an error of mis-converting the knots to km/hr, or maybe even thinking it was meters per sec, converting that to knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: 47kts? That isn't even severe criteria. The 105 mph gust might have been an error. There was a COR on the obs. KEAU 192356Z COR 32025G47 8SM -TSRA FEW028 BKN035 BKN044 24/19 A2966 AO2 PK WND 32047/2341 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 TSB55 SLP038 TS OHD MOV E P0000 60000 T02390194 10333 20239 53006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: The 105 mph gust might have been an error. There was a COR on the obs. The ob is also missing the KT after the gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: The ob is also missing the KT after the gust. i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Just now, Jim Marusak said: i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed? Yep that would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: High and dry. Nothing getting here with 14-16C at 700mb. Mega cap and ridging. . fwiw, the 00z RAOBS back up those temps, with 15C observed at GRB and 16C at DVN. Besides how warm the temps are, another thing to consider is how far upstream it extends from northern IL. That is a long way to go for the convection to fight through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further You are correct. It was a tornado watch from MO/AR to KY/TN. There were 2 PDS severe thunderstorm watches to the west of that earlier that morning. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2009/ww0267.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Green Bay is really looking down the barrel of this one, getting some reports of trees down across Langlade County and in Antigo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 i'd kill to have a beach house in western michigan and a fat sack of weed rn. just watch it roll in... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 That's a pretty strong velocity signal on Green Bay radar for the tor warned storm. Anyone have further information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN FOREST...MARINETTE...MENOMINEE...OCONTO...EASTERN LANGLADE AND CENTRAL SHAWANO COUNTIES... AT 842 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF NORTH OTTER CREEK NATURAL AREA TO MOUNTAIN TO NEAR BIG SMOKEY FALLS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WITTENBERG, MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARINETTE, SHAWANO, CRANDON, MENOMINEE, OCONTO, GILLETT, CRIVITZ, MOUNTAIN, WAUSAUKEE AND POUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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