Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 I've got 92/75 on the average local stations in town here in Ayer, but it's 91/72 in KBED... I mean, not that bad really... account for tarmac vs chicken butts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: You argued that sensor error was part of it? Good to know. You know what I mean . We argued the macs were naturally drier , less vegetation etc . Higher dews conducive to vegetation and less mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I argued this for years on here. Will, Scooter, others ..Finally nice to see folks agree I mean think about it, you basically live in a forest and I know in Woodstock, CT most of my family does too. Tree canopy everywhere. Move that out into a field with the nearest tree a mile away in all directions, no wonder the dew is lower and temp higher. The PWS with the highest dews, usually have a lower temperature too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: 78F dew at ITH. RIP for those in summer courses at Cornell. Swan dive off the suspension bridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You know what I mean . We argued the macs were naturally drier , less vegetation etc . Higher dews conducive to vegetation and less mixing I’ve never seen Will or Scooter argue that the tarmacs weren’t drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 86/77 at home, sticky but nothing special. Let’s see if tomorrow can bring us everlasting memories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I’ve never seen Will or Scooter argue that the tarmacs weren’t drier? Go way back to Eastern. Maybe even on here in the earlier years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Glad I don't grow corn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 We’re still climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you trying to make a point with this... ? Not sure what that would be.. In any case, the top modeled output and the prognostic bottom annotated chart, do not really match - fyi... They are in fact almost 180 degrees out of phase... Perhaps that's what you meant? If so, agreed - I guess.. heh Yeah the Lakes have a semi-permanent trough implied seasonal mean that is illustrated. Contrasting, the top chart has a ridge in that same location. More over, the top ...even if it has any deterministic value at this sort of time lead, is just one day ...whereas the bottom ( again ) represents a seasonal mean/bias therein.. Apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 BOS 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Glad I don't grow corn. That 80 dew near the NW tip of IL is DBQ. That's an ASOS and as accurate as we're going to get on dews. Impressive. Also it's the start of the Great Jones County Fair (currently 91/82 at MXO). Ice cold domestics flowing like the Maquoketa River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We’re still climbing Yeah... the late high is an option today.. Really as little as two hours ago ...WPC was still analyzing a vestigial warm frontal smear trying to move but probably getting damped out ... either way, that wasn't realized then and sort of sets the region up for offsetting the max potential perhaps an hour or so later than normal. I could see some places maxing closer to 4:30 or even 5 down at the shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That 80 dew near the NW tip of IL is DBQ. That's an ASOS and as accurate as we're going to get on dews. Impressive. Also it's the start of the Great Jones County Fair (currently 91/82 at MXO). Ice cold domestics flowing like the Maquoketa River. 80F up to RST in Minny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 It appears the nose of that theta-e plume out there is helping to ignite some deep convection from SE Mi to western NY ... do we MCS tonight? I'm not sure we'll meet the criteria for that but... there's probably some variance to getting that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Glad I don't grow corn. That 84 in NW Iowa . Looks like that station was 90/86 for a reading if it's to be believed. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KSHL&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Time (CDT) 2.0m Temperature ° F 2.0m Dew Point ° F 2.0m Wet bulb temperature ° F 2.0m Relative Humidity % 10.0m Wind Speed mph 10.0m Wind Gust mph 10.0m Wind Direction Pressure in Altimeter in Weather conditions Visibility miles Ceiling feet Quality Control 13:55 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 17.3 28.8 SSW 28.18 29.67 Clear 10.00 OK 13:35 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 20.7 27.6 S 28.17 29.66 Clear 10.00 OK 13:15 89.6 86.0 86.8 89 15.0 24.2 S 28.16 29.65 Clear 10.00 OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 actually there's a watch now out that way... SPC terminates the storm chances pretty quickly at the door stop of western NE though... for whatever reason. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Go way back to Eastern. Maybe even on here in the earlier years No the issue has always been the home stations can’t be compared to the ASOS because of the siting differences. It’s comparing apples to oranges. Many of us grew up watching the Weather Channel or local news and they always used the ASOS station observations. It’s why you like BDL because you see it on the news and it’s the station you care about. But with dews, you’d see 55F at the ASOS and say “it was comfy today”, even if your backyard dew under trees might be 63F (you never knew or cared, you just watch the airport obs)....you associated what you felt to what was listed on TWC (Local on the 8s). If the ASOS was showing 68F dew, you were like wow today was real humid but you never knew the dew in your backyard was 73F. I think a lot of us just associate our “feel” for the weather with what the ASOS says because that’s what you had growing up to look at. And back in the Eastern days, most of those home stations were pretty poor quality too. The ventilation/fans and technology of home stations has increased a lot in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 CEF, MHT, at 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No the issue has always been the home stations can’t be compared to the ASOS because of the siting differences. It’s comparing apples to oranges. Many of us grew up watching the Weather Channel or local news and they always used the ASOS station observations. It’s why you like BDL because you see it on the news and it’s the station you care about. But with dews, you’d see 55F at the ASOS and say “it was comfy today”, even if your backyard dew under trees might be 63F (you never knew or cared, you just watch the airport obs)....you associated what you felt to what was listed on TWC (Local on the 8s). If the ASOS was showing 68F dew, you were like wow today was real humid but you never knew the dew in your backyard was 73F. I think a lot of us just associate our “feel” for the weather with what the ASOS says because that’s what you had growing up to look at. And back in the Eastern days, most of those home stations were pretty poor quality too. The ventilation/fans and technology of home stations has increased a lot. ASOS are maintained by the NWS to an accuracy standard of about 1C for normal range in temperatures/dewpoints (don't let Scott see regarding BOS). Davis standards are 2C, and that's assuming someone is regularly calibrating their sensor. So that's generally why a personal station or AWOS can slip into bias territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: That 84 in NW Iowa . Looks like that station was 90/86 for a reading if it's to be believed. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KSHL&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Time (CDT) 2.0m Temperature ° F 2.0m Dew Point ° F 2.0m Wet bulb temperature ° F 2.0m Relative Humidity % 10.0m Wind Speed mph 10.0m Wind Gust mph 10.0m Wind Direction Pressure in Altimeter in Weather conditions Visibility miles Ceiling feet Quality Control 13:55 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 17.3 28.8 SSW 28.18 29.67 Clear 10.00 OK 13:35 89.6 84.2 85.4 84 20.7 27.6 S 28.17 29.66 Clear 10.00 OK 13:15 89.6 86.0 86.8 89 15.0 24.2 S 28.16 29.65 Clear 10.00 OK It's an AWOS...a little less accurate than ASOS...especially on those 75+ dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Beaten by CL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Beaten by CL. AWOS is a FAA maintained piece of equipment, and typically they are only concerned with instrumentation that is affecting flight ops. So dews not real high on the priority list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Hey Chris... hate to talk shop after 3pm on a Friday buuut... This is strange ... a little. Wonderin' if y'all had seen or discussed. The models are puking 580 to 584 dm thickness up across the eastern OV/NE regions over the next 36 hours. Having them that high, for that long, is nothing shy of astounding for said regions - that alone is worth of discussion. But, the heights. The hydrostatic heights are only some 4 or 5 dm higher than those thicknesses. That's cutting it kind of close for the hypsometric - hydrostatic relationship. I mean... the former integrate through the latter, means it is pretty much mathematically impossible for them to ever = one another. But, just the same...it's increasingly more difficult to even approach ... This is like getting close 99 % the speed of light no-no .. Kidding there, but doesn't this seem interesting. It seems the heights should 590 min and 594 might be more typical for those hypsometric results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Good point. I trust it but sometimes I think my VP2 is whacked out for dew points. Right now I’m at 89/78 and I’m sure I’ll feel every bit of it when I get home. It’s a psychological adjustment. It’s an adjustment for temps too. I don’t warm like the tarmac So that VP2 could be 2C off and reading 23C for a dew, and 73F sounds about right on line with ASOS readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: How would you know when to calibrate a sensor? Is it as simple as being out of step regularly with nearby stations? We have regularly scheduled maintenance in the NWS (depending on service level of the airport it could be as often as every 6 months). So it would be something you do every couple of years or something like that, not necessarily when you think there is a problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No the issue has always been the home stations can’t be compared to the ASOS because of the siting differences. It’s comparing apples to oranges. Many of us grew up watching the Weather Channel or local news and they always used the ASOS station observations. It’s why you like BDL because you see it on the news and it’s the station you care about. But with dews, you’d see 55F at the ASOS and say “it was comfy today”, even if your backyard dew under trees might be 63F (you never knew or cared, you just watch the airport obs)....you associated what you felt to what was listed on TWC (Local on the 8s). If the ASOS was showing 68F dew, you were like wow today was real humid but you never knew the dew in your backyard was 73F. I think a lot of us just associate our “feel” for the weather with what the ASOS says because that’s what you had growing up to look at. And back in the Eastern days, most of those home stations were pretty poor quality too. The ventilation/fans and technology of home stations has increased a lot in the last decade. Whether it's transpirationally-fed dews or fake frost-pocket cold, the readings are real but are not an accurate reflection of the overall airmass. Those readings do vary proportionally with the airmass - DIT's dews will be higher when those at BDL are 70 than when the AP is at 65. And the sensations of dewiness or cold in each of those microclimates are just as real. IIRC, any "arguments" were based on some folks claiming their readings were correct and inferring that others' differing readings had to be wrong, when in fact both were accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: AWOS is a FAA maintained piece of equipment, and typically they are only concerned with instrumentation that is affecting flight ops. So dews not real high on the priority list. Dr Dews just smashed his keyboard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Still a warmer than normal run out there on the Euro (12z) ... altho obviously it won't compare to this weekend - it may even "seem" cool after this abuse next Wednesday. It also suggests not-so-fast on the Monday fropa.. That pressure pattern looks like the front is trended slower, and with a S/W cutting through Michigan 12z that day...we may yet end up still on the warm side of things with bigger convection concerns with that look. The 'real' cool back fropa isn't till early Tuesday. One day near 11 or so C at 850 and we're 13 to 16 C through the run. Meh...Euro is correctable beyond D4 just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Giving cred where it's due... Scott may be right about the apex of the summer idea... I first wasn't inclined to thing so... but, I also wasn't staring down the barrel of back to back hundos, either. That's sort of crept up. It was looking like 96 ...and still might ( wondering about those thunder) I mean, this is probably a top tier heat event ... I mean it may not topple 'Hot Saturday' ...per se... But, it certainly could come close and also ....longevity and noctural probably will put this right up there with some more historically distant hall of famers. ... Either way, it's hard to get 100 and it very difficult to do so back to back - even if that fails ...the very possibility looking as clean as it does, is exceptionally rare. So, that said... buy statistic alone, that makes it harder to foresee doing this more than once in the same year. We could get 5 more heat waves between next week and September 15th, and blast this summer into the annuls of the warmest ( which would be comical after a kind of wet slow start ), and still not achieve 100/82/100 across 36 hours... Plus, suppose this exact same circumstantial synopsis sets up on August 19... it's probably 99/78/98 or something to atone for a smidge less solar - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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