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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Someone inland will probably do it...especially Sat eve or Sun AM. A few sites did it last year.

The radiators might come close in the evening... if we get a pop up shower or storm off the mountains this evening I bet MVL could do it.  That initial sun down decouple can raise the dews a quick 5-7F.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

MAV now 101 BOS Sunday 

mm it actually had that two days ago when it was in the MEX block but yeah.. but we're now-casting... (Today's going to bust too low in the NAM MOS, btw )

To Brian's point ... the heat side of this whole facet is clad and immovable at this point, ...the modulator in exactly where the numbers land is going to come down to tedious theta-e distributions in the column.  

Not sure that can be squared away prognostically.   I mean, you get 71 DP down blip and the temp pops 102 ... IF it blips the other way to 77 .. you're hung up at 94...96 or something but ... it doesn't matter. Both scenarios probably have the exact same therms ...and would feel about the same/risks...

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm it actually had that two days ago when it was in the MEX block but yeah.. but we're now-casting... (Today's going to bust too low in the NAM MOS, btw )

To Brian's point ... the heat side of this whole facet is clad and immovable at this point, ...the modulator in exactly where the numbers land is going to come down to tedious theta-e distributions in the column.  

Not sure that can be squared away prognostically.   I mean, you get 71 DP down blip and the temp pops 102 ... IF it blips the other way to 77 .. you're hung up at 94...96 or something but ... it doesn't matter. Both scenarios probably have the exact same therms ...and would feel about the same/risks...

Nam has been crap most of summer with regard to Underforecasting Highs.

 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well you need heat to melt snow, glaciers, and ice caps. The warming waters and increasing GHGs allow for more evaporation and moisture to be trapped in the troposphere. But we've been wetter too so we precipitate a lot of it out. I haven't followed global humidity and precipitation trends enough though....at least not since I was in school. I'm sure Will and others can comment more on that. It is what it is. We're warming, but the extremists usually need to be ignored. The answer is usually somewhere in the middle.

We actually don't have very good confidence on global precipitation trends over the past 100 years....or even past 50 years. Our region of the globe has become wetter on a more specific spacial scale which is what we are probably used to for the narratives....esp the narrative on the big increase in heavy precip events in the eastern US. But this is not uniform globally and many areas have also become drier. We do know total water vapor has increased, but not actual precip.

 

 

precip_trend1.png

precip_trend2.png

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sure. I'm just saying with more moisture and higher pwats we're seeing more precipitation. I'm not implying at all that the precip is balancing out any moisture/evaporation increases. Not sure if you were responding to me though. I'm on the GW train.

OH... heh.   Honestly, I'm not sure who wrote what... something caught my eye so I was just trying to elucidate the watered down version - pun always serviceable and deliberate <_<

Anyway, the PWAT stuff is measured and empirical ...but, we live in a borrowed times where immediate conveniences allow a peculiar political/mise-science of interpretation arts with information, replete with scandals and adherence to 'plausible' counter explanations that we are merely only yet to pay any consequences for believing...  So, good luck explaining that to anyone that needs the PWATs to not be growing everywhere unilaterally...  

Which is a huge huge constituency in a world whose gears are still unconscionably lubricated with fossil oil....  rant rant rant

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