ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: BDL 98 BED 98 OWD 98 BOS 97 TAN 97 MHT 97 FIT 97 I mean most MOS guidance had 97-100F. How is that a bust? I'm going to assume NWS zone forecasts were calling for upper 90s in the lower els? The decoupling example is usually when the forecast is -10F and calm and it ends up +5F with a 10mph wind. I was referring to the 100+ calls. Wasn't calling out MOS specifically. Just replying to the narrative of 100+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Studying the hi res vis loop ... This cloud shield strikes me as a remnant outflow arc ... There's even subtle signs of g-wave striations paralleling the front edge as it neared(s) the south coast. I was thinking earlier that it was a richer DPs pooled NW of NYC in NE Pa/SE Ny that were trying to return flow over the Berks, earlier, but after studying this imagery I'm wondering - There's been a lot of convection and rain cooled pooling/outflow phenomenon over the Lakes and it's not impossible that some vaguely differentiable air mass is has a vestigial mass signature in the flow there. hm. It would be subtle... BOS winds decide to gust to 22 kts in a pressure pattern that otherwise has been pretty static and unchanging, and has not been able to do that prior... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Except when it’s winter and the 0” snow measurement falls short of their 12-18” forecast cuz of mid level warmth like March 2018. We are too used mediocrity around here, I expect better. With regard to info forecasts and much more discussion of the particular and sometimes extreme different scenarios possible On forecasts and much more detail discussion on how the odds for different scenarios are changing as we close in on the day of a weather event we could do better On This board. The general public is generally 2 stupid and ignorant and uninterested in hearing or accurately processing that kind of forecast . its like this , we need a better breakdown of the options the weather (forecast) could take , and a running discourse on how options are becoming more or less likely as we get inside the 24-36 hour window when the details and probability of such options can be fine tuned . A lot of us ..We are stat guys, percentage guys . what bugs me is 24-36 hours out from a system the minor model changes which begin to fine tune the different “paths” or risks or callem’ “caution flags” could be much more discussed. There is 100% a psychological component to this bc in winter people only talk about said changes when it turns snowier/ more bullish on the immediate lead up, not on the opposite. There’s also an aspect of wanting to keep things “AWT”. i really enjoy how laid back this subforum is and it Mets will sort of discuss a better breakdown of what we’re lookin for for different scenarios to play out when asked directly (like ORH wxman) , just seems like could be better details in general discussion of the options . John seems to add this most (in general discussion) thou seems more often to play devils advocate (not complaining) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We would call that a bust in the winter for sure. Even though it's still brutal cold. How many times have we seen the posts "darn, we didn't decouple so temps never made it down to -10" True I guess... I just feel like model forecasts aiming for the tails of the whisker plots (extremes) are much more prone to that type of outcome. Sort of like Tip and Dendrite, I guess I was skeptical of a bunch of hundos all over. I figured 95-99F with high dews is how that modeled outcome usually works out. But same in winter, I feel skeptical of those ridiculously cold max temps the models like to show from time to time. At least up this way it was spot on... 89-92F with lows near 70F for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Except when it’s winter and the 0” snow measurement falls short of their 12-18” forecast cuz of mid level warmth like March 2018. We are too used mediocrity around here, I expect better. Ok ha that’s completely different, I agree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: True I guess... I just feel like forecasts aiming for the tails of the whisker plots (extremes) are much more prone to that type of outcome. Sort of like Tip and Dendrite, I guess I was skeptical of a bunch of hundos all over. I figured 95-99F with high dews is how that modeled outcome usually works out. But same in winter, I feel skeptical of those ridiculously cold max temps the models like to show from time to time. Yeah and again, nobody outside of this wx nerd community would notice...at all. Most people hear balls cold and don't care if it's 3F with a little wind vs -2F with less wind. But on here, we might say "oh that was kind of a bust, we missed the record because we couldn't decouple enough" or something like that. Im the scheme of things, it didn't matter. The idea was right, but a small detail changed the actual temperature outcome by a few degrees even though the sensible wx wasn't very different. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This sucks that we are not going to get any good widespread convection from this...what complete and total garbage. Absolute trash. This is just such BS. What a horrific summer really...awful. It’s been a roller coaster of crap, except we never made it to the top. At least maybe there will be some soaking rains for some Monday night and Tuesday but this sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Any Mets want to discuss the next week or so sensible wx? What we got for severe, rain, warm down and then reheat late week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: With regard to info forecasts and much more discussion of the particular and sometimes extreme different scenarios possible On forecasts and much more detail discussion on how the odds for different scenarios are changing as we close in on the day of a weather event we could do better On This board. The general public is generally 2 stupid and ignorant and uninterested in hearing or accurately processing that kind of forecast . its like this , we need a better breakdown of the options the weather (forecast) could take , and a running discourse on how options are becoming more or less likely as we get inside the 24-36 hour window when the details and probability of such options can be fine tuned . A lot of us ..We are stat guys, percentage guys . what bugs me is 24-36 hours out from a system the minor model changes which begin to fine tune the different “paths” or risks or callem’ “caution flags” could be much more discussed. There is 100% a psychological component to this bc in winter people only talk about said changes when it turns snowier/ more bullish on the immediate lead up, not on the opposite. There’s also an aspect of wanting to keep things “AWT”. i really enjoy how laid back this subforum is and it seems Mets will sort of discuss a better breakdown of what we’re lookin for for different scenarios to play out , just seems like could be better details Cannot stress enough ... this is only an issue in this particular social-media cluster of inconsolables ...relative to the debate its self? I think both sides are right - I do... There is room to complain about a media sensationalism to pounce on the big scary " 100 " number in forecasts, ... when the MOS set up a range between 96 and 100... The fact of the matter is, 100 was not beyond the possibility... The media engine revved up the 100 side of that... Don't do that... Perhaps discuss that as a possibility, but also be clear that failing to do so still prone the region to dangerous heat - which verified! On the other side, Seriously... there is no debate in the "rational consensus of society" - if you will... We are quibbling over 2 f'n degrees man, wrt to this hundo thing. In fact, I don't think anyone out there at a regular water cooler, or making small talk in line at the grocery store even is aware it failed to hundo yesterday given what they endured just trying to crawl from their car to the front entrance. I guess it depends upon which arena one chooses to engage in the discussion. If it's in here... we're sort of about it... If we're out there, this is a feather in the cap for the forecast community at large. There are those that don't want ( probably ) to accept that difference of arena ... but if so, tsk tsk... don't conflate those two. It's good though..that there is that attention to detail because hopefully this in some how way shape or form will parlay into keeping the system on it's toes - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Just poorly forecasted here, don’t care about jfk or ewr. Missing by 5F on highs is a bit of a head scratcher imo, that’s all. Now let’s see if we can come close to today’s 95 call. 84/74, sun poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any Mets want to discuss the next week or so sensible wx? What we got for severe, rain, warm down and then reheat late week? Wrong thread homie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 88F in Falmouth, that is full torch for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Nobody in there right or wrong mind should be denying that 97-98 wasn't hot, But those 100F+ calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cannot being to stress enough ... this is only an issue in this particular social-media cluster of inconsolables ...relative to the debate its self? I think both sides are right - I do... There is room to complain about a media sensationalism to pounce on the big scary " 100 " number in forecasts, ... when the MOS set up a range between 96 and 100... The fact of the matter is, 100 was not beyond the possibility... The media engine revved up the 100 side of that... Don't do that... On the other side, Seriously... there is no debate in the "rational consensus of society" - if you will... We are quibbling over 2 f'n degrees man, wrt to this hundo thing. In fact, I don't think anyone out there at a regular water cooler, or making small talk in line at the grocery store even is aware it failed to hundo yesterday given what they endured just trying to crawl from their car to the front entrance. I guess it depends upon which arena one chooses to engage in the discussion. If it's in here... we're sort of about it... If we're out there, this is a feather in the cap for the forecast community at large. There are those that don't want ( probably ) to accept that difference of arena ... but if so, tsk tsk... don't conflate those two. It's good though..that there is that attention to detail because hopefully this in some how way shape or form with parlay into keeping the system on it's toes - I was slightly O.T. And not referring to 100 degree calls really at all . Seems iceberg really thought the official NWS forecast busted and maybe it did for his area and Will was referring to the abundance of social media hoopla of 100 is coming , 100 is coming obviously , for E mass the forecast was pretty damn good based on the high temps dentrite listed and the high dew points . (That was one path we actually discussed...higher dews are possible and this would tick down max temp ) The media sensationalism is rampant but tends to effect the weather “sheeple” for lack of a better term . i was talking about this particular forum and group of folks (maybe its just me ) that wishes and has a thirst for knowledge of the changing percentages and better discussion of not the “forecast” but options the forecast could take especially when said details become clearer as we approach the “event” . Especially in winter for the reasons in my last post but it was more something I wanted to get off my chest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 Let’s put it in context. it was a hot and humid week save for Thursday. The biggest heat as forecast was Saturday and Sunday. 100 is really rare in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 ORH at 11:00: Yesterday 85/74 Today 82/70 Big sensible difference along with a decent breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wrong thread homie. Nonnes posting in the other one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I keep hearing 100°F being mentioned, Who was pimping those numbers? That's rare air up here and wasn't happening this weekend. 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let’s put it in context. it was a hot and humid week save for Thursday. The biggest heat as forecast was Saturday and Sunday. 100 is really rare in New England What makes matters worse is that a few on air mets a few days back up here had places like IZG, SFM and parts of SNH mapped out between 100-102°F for yesterday, So naturally many took and ran with that ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Sun roaring out now. Temps rocketing, but losing 3+ hours to clouds and rain hurt . Helped dews though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Excuse the melt down but the more I think about this the more upset I get. I've quite mentally upset over this. There is a front approaching today...we actually even have a little piece of EML air overhead, obviously we have the moisture, the temps, the instability...even the wind shear...AND WE AREN'T GOING TO SEE ANYTHING? What a crock of crap...I can't even say anymore b/c I'm so angry and I don't know how to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 The forecast was fine. Are we really expecting forecasters to nail the temp to the degree? Peeps making it sound like something magical happens at 100F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just poorly forecasted here, don’t care about jfk or ewr. Missing by 5F on highs is a bit of a head scratcher imo, that’s all. I bet they miss a forecast high by 3-5F once a week in either direction.... just nobody cares if it’s forecast 82F and it ends up being 78F due to some clouds. I mean increased morning cloudiness is more than enough to do that. Maybe I’m being too easy on the forecasters but I just don’t see the “head scratcher” when everyone was talking about why it missed yesterday (mid/high level cloudiness). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 From an WMUR article...Dr.Dews? I must admit I am a little bummed we aren’t going to see any good convection out of this. Oh well, another day at the pool sipping on IPAS then. HAMPTON, N.H. — Extreme heat draws crowds to the Seacoast, and people packed Hampton Beach on Saturday for relief. “This is my favorite time of the year,” said Seth Hinson. “I hate the winter. I can't stand it. I wish it was 100 every day.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Excuse the melt down but the more I think about this the more upset I get. I've quite mentally upset over this. There is a front approaching today...we actually even have a little piece of EML air overhead, obviously we have the moisture, the temps, the instability...even the wind shear...AND WE AREN'T GOING TO SEE ANYTHING? What a crock of crap...I can't even say anymore b/c I'm so angry and I don't know how to say it. Lol hey raindrops are falling on me head if that makes you happy. I can see your eml overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: The forecast was fine. Are we really expecting forecasters to nail the temp to the degree? Peeps making it sound like something magical happens at 100F I agree...the forecasts were fine. The message to get across to people was hot hot and humid it was going to be. Was it something completely historic...no. Was it something uncommon for around here...no. But the jest of it is how unhealthy it is for humans and animals (people really forget this aspect) to be exposed to these conditions. It's not like temperatures busted by 10F and dewpoints busted by 10F. I totally understand all the "hype" or whatever word you want to use regarding the heat/humidity. The statistics about adults leaving children inside a car who end up dying is beyond mid blowing...the same goes with pets and people who leave their pets outside, or inside the car, or walk their pets on hot pavement is mid blowing. These things are said and repeated to prevent people from doing such acts...unfortunately sometimes you can't teach stupid. In terms of this weekend this weekend was right at the crest of what we usually experience for our hottest period of the summer...and maybe even slightly above that given the degree of dewpoints coupled with the temperatures. The argument too between urban heat areas, remote locations, higher elevations is crap too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Excuse the melt down but the more I think about this the more upset I get. I've quite mentally upset over this. There is a front approaching today...we actually even have a little piece of EML air overhead, obviously we have the moisture, the temps, the instability...even the wind shear...AND WE AREN'T GOING TO SEE ANYTHING? What a crock of crap...I can't even say anymore b/c I'm so angry and I don't know how to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Lol hey raindrops are falling on me head if that makes you happy. I can see your eml overhead :lol; Tell it I said hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I bet they miss a forecast high by 3-5F once a week in either direction.... just nobody cares if it’s forecast 82F and it ends up being 78F due to some clouds. I mean increased morning cloudiness is more than enough to do that. Maybe I’m being too easy on the forecasters but I just don’t see the “head scratcher” when everyone was talking about why it missed yesterday (mid/high level cloudiness). Fair enough. My criticism of that office in particular may have aided my thoughts here, they have an awful track record. So I’ll just chalk it up to clouds, blame the ‘gods’ instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 It was miserably hot and humid up here on the Maine coast yesterday. Right on the beach near and just after sunset it got pretty cool due to a very local sea breeze. Humidity was atrocious. It didn't reach 100F but a lot of people looked pretty miserable. We had a deck of high thin clouds to hold down temps in the am. They made up for it when the sun came out. Same thing today. Heat warnings and advisories have been justified. Only an idiot would have been doing serious physical activity during the daylight hours. If you are in a locale that had clouds and rain this morning you may be enjoying temps (dwpts?) low enough to take a sopping wet run or mowing of the grass, but when/if the sun comes out it will be a repeat of yesterday. Since most of us don't really notice the difference between 93/70 and 95/74 (we are miserable at either temp) arguing about the precise temp/dwpt differences is merely theoretical. Same way between -10F no wind and +3F/ 10 mph wind. On the other hand very few of us think of a 4" snowfall as being the same as 8", much less 12" or more, which explains the different perceptions of a "bust". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Forecasting a record is usually not a good idea. 101 at BDL? That's happened less than a dozen times in the 115 year history of the station. If you forecast 101 at BDL you are saying I think this will be one of the hottest days ever at a station whose all-time high is 103. There's a reason 100 is hard to reach around here. As a forecaster, you'd be better off just throwing up a 97 or 98 on days like these and taking your chances considering how hard it is to verify triple digits. When EWR was struggling I knew it was over LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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