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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why not stick over at BU?

ASOS needs to be at the airfield. And per directive the ASOS is primary source, and even if we got a coop in a better location it wouldn't be the official BOS climate data. The only reason we get away with it with snow is because ASOS doesn't measure it (yet).

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big numbers today failed but guidance was trending that way.  We wait till tomorrow.

So you don't think 95 is 'big' ?

Seriously - I asked earlier to try and get a consensus but ...not response.

To me, 95 is big... 94 is not...  But, I am also willing to negotiate for HI's in that discussion. 

Today, qualified as a big heat day... It's just that it may be in the lower ranking ...so far.

BDL is 98 and I could see Logan doing one of those 20 minute WNW perturbations and 99 for 30 seconds around 4:54 or something...  I mean we'll see and probably not, but they often do sneak a tickle later than we think.

I just saw the 12z Euro and the heat could lingering S of the Pike Monday...  The front has slowed down across the last two cycles of that particular model... and even looks suspiciously like it hangs up entirely Monday afternoon and waits for a S/W and ( probably ) a severe day on Tuesday - that's this 12z run. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

And of those 14 -10, only 3 have occurred at Logan.  Location a big deterrent.

And none in the past 60 years.  For the 60s onward, maybe look for -5 instead.  It's like NYC - minus 15 in 1934 and minus 8 in 1943, but nothing colder than minus 2 since then.

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Not really anything to disagree with .. just refer to the scientific principles...

Standard adiabat from 850 mb is about 19 C to get a 1000mb temperature around 34 C ...so, 2-meter standard 1013 sigma combined with turbulent mixing on high insolation afternoons adds 3.5 C so 38 C ... boom, 100.  But, down sloped flow and compressional heating adds to that ... so you probably don't really need the 34 just above the deck with a NW over-the-top EML type set up... Today is not that day, however...  Today, the 850s were 20 or above ... didn't need it.

The trick is getting the BL that tall...  When there is are 2 hours of clouds in the morning, that delays the heating of the ground and in turn, retards the diurnal BL expansion.  We're getting it now, but the sun is passed apex so the 2-meter isn't benefiting as much.  So we're getting more like 2 C out of that bottom bonus -

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