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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Out doing yard work. After a 5 mile run. Soaked , but it’s so nice. Who else is out getting after it and taking advantage?

I pulled a window unit out of the house, brought it outside, and aimed it underneath the coop and into the run. The birds were already excessively panting. They're kinda like Mitch. I honestly think they'd prefer a sunny 20F over this. But yeah...I don't mind it at all. I've been out watering plants, picking up chicken shit, and enjoying the sultry warmth.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The air dried out nicely here in an hour. Went from totally still and stifling to a hot and humid with a breeze 

Yeah. The breeze was definitely helpful on my walk. I hate when it is still and manky. The bugs weren’t too bad.  We also walk through 2places where a stream goes under the road and there are woods on both sides.  Much cooler (felt 5-10F cooler) in those spots

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

BOS BED OWD BAF all 87/88

Tippy is going to get his 90 @ 9

Ha!

Well...to be fair...it's not my adage.  I heard that on television by a local Met back in the early 1990s.  I have heard it elsewhere since, however.

There's also another one, "10 after 10"  - I think Mike Ekster might have shared that once ..?  

Anyway, the 90 by 9: one gives an hour to f-around with an errant ill-modeled cloud patch or two, ...to which today qualifies by the way.  I'm a bit apprehensive about top dollar numbers being achieved, given current sat trends... Plenty of exhaust to fail evaporation during transport, emanating from the eastern Lakes on -going heat bust flash flooding...

The 10 after 10 one gives no wiggle room.  If it kisses 90 at 10: am...  there is of course less wiggle room than if it kisses 90 by 9: am.

Anyway, the more I look at this in now-cast, the more I am convinced this is a non-traditional 'big heat' event synoptically.  We have the 850 mb SW heat release/EML and torrid air layers but... we are missing the capping suppression concomitant with big ridging.  Obviously this is known for heat monitoring...but the suppression limit cloud so you have unimpeded insolation to add energy to a system that can't mix out.  Adding clouds ... impedes the sun...duh.

This was warned all week ... by me and probably others, that flat ridging is dicey.  So here we are with these cloud debris packets ... meh. Not shocked.  And even questionable convective handling ... These are all a function of models simply not evolved to a point where they can correctly assess both convection parameterization and the ridge interface with the westerlies... I think Will mentioned MCS debris ...I know Jerry did... I was mentioning flat ridges from a holistic sort of risk...

Heh, if we do it...we do it... but, I'm not confident this set up gets it done.    "100" that is...  Oh, I'm sure a few home stations will non-officiate ... and Boston will because Logan's got its thermometer jammed up urban-Bostonian anus on days like this with a west wind... but mostly I'm thinking 96/78 on the home stations, and 96/73 at NWS'

Fun day of possibilities for nerds with Aspergers to shun society over -

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Woke up to pee at 7 and noticed filtered sun which created bad sleep till I woke up again.   Now full sun and off to the races!  If we can keep dews below 70 hundy is more than doable but it looks like we have to work harder to achieve it.  Specific heat ftl?

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Just now, weathafella said:

Woke up to pee at 7 and noticed filtered sun which created bad sleep till I woke up again.   Now full sun and off to the races!  If we can keep dews below 70 hundy is more than doable but it looks like we have to work harder to achieve it.  Specific heat ftl?

Yeah... DP/theta-e logistics are important in that equation, too -

We are so anomalous at 850 mb S of roughly ALB-CON-PWM ...that is sort of compensating on the warm side ...relative to 'filtered sun' as you called it.

Then... suppose the air loses some vapor .. there you go. 

I don't see that happening though?   Looking around, this DP thing is homogeneously spread pervasively from the southern Lakes to the TV to NE regions... like a GW text-book preface. 

 

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