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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 18z NAM  whacked about 3°C off the T1 temperatures all up and down the eastern seaboard Philadelphia New York and Boston for tomorrow ... interesting… Not sure how to atone for that. Maybe something in the initialization or something who knows 

It’s been pretty bad with temps this season. Not sure how it usually fares, prob bad, but I’ve noticed it more lately.

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30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol

Why install , it’s almost like a game to see if you can live and not 

Loll, a/c has only been widely used for about 50 years of human existence and people survived. 

I own plenty of air conditioners, just makes me fill shitty so only use them at home when necessary but use it frequently in the car. 

My pre-brewery life was 10 years teaching at an acupuncture college and Traditional Chines Medicine has nothing but disdain for "cold wind".   All of my old Lithuanian relatives also spoke ill of it.  

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

MOS bends towards climo the farther in the future one goes. So the MAV/MET should be reasonably good in the near term. But like all guidance forecasting extremes is hard because extremes by definition don't happen frequently. 

Actually Euro ensemble MOS got worse headed into today, whereas 5 days ago was showing BOS around 92-94. 

That's what I was thinking... anything with past history baked into the equation should probably miss the extreme days on any end of the spectrum, at least by a little.

Do you know how much climo (if any) the operational models have included in the algorithm?  If the models understand the micro-climates quite well...based on past observations... where does MOS and the OP guidance deviate?

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Loll, a/c has only been widely used for about 50 years of human existence and people survived. 

I own plenty of air conditioners, just makes me fill shitty so only use them at home when necessary but use it frequently in the car. 

My pre-brewery life was 10 years teaching at an acupuncture college and Traditional Chines Medicine has nothing but disdain for "cold wind".   All of my old Lithuanian relatives also spoke ill of it.  

Lol I am jealous of beach

and to your above points... but people also used to only live to 35 years old 

If there is a gentle west wind of 4 mph and it’s 94/77 and you don’t install I’ll toast to you lol

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That's what I was thinking... anything with past history baked into the equation should probably miss the extreme days on any end of the spectrum, at least by a little.

Do you know how much climo (if any) the operational models have included in the algorithm?  If the models understand the micro-climates quite well...based on past observations... where does MOS and the OP guidance deviate?

Beyond some reality checks, I'm not sure the models bake in any climo. But they also don't quite resolve the surface that well, so they have their own set of problem when it comes to 2 m temps.

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20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been pretty bad with temps this season. Not sure how it usually fares, prob bad, but I’ve noticed it more lately.

 Yeah I dunno. The thing is doing it at every station like that ... Philadelphia New York and Bos, strikes me as a systemic issue with the run.  But it's hard to be confident because the alternative is an absurdly hot temperature ha ha 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Yeah I dunno. The thing is doing it at every station like that ... Philadelphia New York and Bos, strikes me as a systemic issue with the run.  But it's hard to be confident because the alternative is an absurdly hot temperature ha ha 

Honestly I don’t see much of a difference at all looking at 12z 18z nam for Saturday 12z-0z Sunday 

 

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16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol I am jealous of beach

and to your above points... but people also used to only live to 35 years old 

If there is a gentle west wind of 4 mph and it’s 94/77 and you don’t install I’ll toast to you lol

Might be an all day beach day but yeah,  if Falmouth is 90F the a/c comes on tomorrow night. 

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