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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not really anything to disagree with .. just refer to the scientific principles...

Standard adiabat from 850 mb is about 19 C to get a 1000mb temperature around 34 C ...so, 2-meter standard 1013 sigma combined with turbulent mixing on high insolation afternoons adds 3.5 C so 38 C ... boom, 100.  But, down sloped flow and compressional heating adds to that ... so you probably don't really need the 34 just above the deck with a NW over-the-top EML type set up... Today is not that day, however...  Today, the 850s were 20 or above ... didn't need it.

The trick is getting the BL that tall...  When there is are 2 hours of clouds in the morning, that delays the heating of the ground and in turn, retards the diurnal BL expansion.  We're getting it now, but the sun is passed apex so the 2-meter isn't benefiting as much.  So we're getting more like 2 C out of that bottom bonus -

 

highest guidance I see for Boston is 97 Sunday 

HRRR has some 100-101’s from Hartford across to Taunton 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, 512high said:

When gathering "high" for the day is it by 4pm est or 5pm? is there a time cutoff what I'm trying to say that is considered the "official high" for the day

Yeah like fella said, it's officially midnight, but NWS runs climate at 440 pm to make sure we capture that high "most" days. 

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I think western and central maybe even eastern NYS will see a large damaging wind event today, later this evening.  The MCS/Damaging Line over the central Lakes will have a ton of juice and viable CAPE values to rage onto the evening hours and even past sunset as the humidity will still be in place.  This could be a derecho like an event.

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