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Big New England heat 7/19-21


weathafella
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Just now, weathafella said:

5 to hundy at BOS.  That is a bit tough from 1pm but we have some things in our favor.   

1.  Trend for winds to back more WNW and NW.

2.  Debris should be much less within the next 90 minutes 

3.  Heating potential up to 5PM

850’s on the rise

i see 98

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Not sure what the exact nature of the the CIN/inhibition is right at the moment, but..there are TCU flaring along the Lake Ontario boundary interface up there in NY and it's not a huge leap to envision something ballooning over top any breaches in said cap -

I'm bothering to mention it because ... in concert with the other clues of this being a bootleg big heat day ( at best ...) is that the CU around here are tending to vertical depth with crispy edges.. I just wonder if part of the blown ceiling forecast might also be bad convective outlooks...

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup. 89.5F here now. So my first 90 of the season. 

Can I get a 95?

I doubt it ... what are you, 1000 feet right?

I mean you could stop at 93.5 while it's 101 at Boston in situ's like this...  Worcesters only 87 at the moment so 93 may be stretch for you too -

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

5 to hundy at BOS.  That is a bit tough from 1pm but we have some things in our favor.   

1.  Trend for winds to back more WNW and NW.

2.  Debris should be much less within the next 90 minutes 

3.  Heating potential up to 5PM

BOS went back to W and the temp came back down and dews climbed. Looks like they need a slight N component to the W wind if they're gonna have a chance.

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21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What’s this supposed to mean?  

I work for a company I’ve been with for almost 25 years and my wife and I have our own business so our free time is limited.  Nights and weekends are when we do our own business work either at home or meeting with clients.

Relax it was a long running joke from an old movie. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what the exact nature of the the CIN/inhibition is right at the moment, but..there are TCU flaring along the Lake Ontario boundary interface up there in NY and it's not a huge leap to envision something ballooning over top any breaches in said cap -

I'm bothering to mention it because ... in concert with the other clues of this being a bootleg big heat day ( at best ...) is that the CU around here are tending to vertical depth with crispy edges.. I just wonder if part of the blown ceiling forecast might also be bad convective outlooks...

Storms firing over eastern NY now

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Just now, dendrite said:

BOS went back to W and the temp came back down and dews climbed. Looks like they need a slight N component to the W wind if they're gonna have a chance.

Maybe need a plane or two running idle on tarmac w a wnw wind will do 

 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Relax it was a long running joke from an old movie. 

The man needs an edible 

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So... anywho, it conjectural ...but, I define "big" heat as 95 or > ...  Not sure how other define, but that's what I've always considered, relative to our climate.   Dallas, is 103 >  ... Phoenix ... perhaps > 112 .. and on and so on.

That said, we may also consider HI's in that ruling...  93/75 is big heat if so...etc...etc..

Having said that, KBOS pinged 97 this hour and has settled ( likely temporarily ) back to 95... KBED is 95, and KOWD is 97 ... 

I think that is convincingly spread out enough that we can ledger today as a big heat day.  The question becomes...how big does it get?  

Right now, as others have noted ...the cirrus milk has thinned a bit and the blue is more austere ... the sun shines hotly.  I have somewhat taller, sharper edge CU in the area offering moments of shade... It does seem that the temps regionally have responded to this cirrus evaporation.  It's an interesting challenge ...to make 100 if when a couple hours of the morning were tainted - that's pretty much unheard of... As others have correctly noted, we really need perfect parameters here to get it done... 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I doubt it ... what are you, 1000 feet right?

I mean you could stop at 93.5 while it's 101 at Boston in situ's like this...  Worcesters only 87 at the moment so 93 may be stretch for you too -

BOX p n c gets me to 97.  I doubt it

I forget what the highest is that I’ve seen at home. Prob 95 or so. Maybe 96

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX p n c gets me to 97.  I doubt it

I forget what the highest is that I’ve seen at home. Prob 95 or so. Maybe 96

Yeeeah, I wouldn't blame 'em though - not that you are, per se... Just sayn' ..these point-and-click forecasts webpages ...they can't really drill it down to towns that are adjacent but change elevation by 500 or 600' ... 

If you got to 95 on a 97 forecast, I call that A- anyway

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