Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We actually don't have very good confidence on global precipitation trends over the past 100 years....or even past 50 years. Our region of the globe has become wetter on a more specific spacial scale which is what we are probably used to for the narratives....esp the narrative on the big increase in heavy precip events in the eastern US. But this is not uniform globally and many areas have also become drier. We do know total water vapor has increased, but not actual precip. Yeah ... I was just answering to the 'PWAT' side of the debate... I've read, tho, that incidences of higher SD events has increased... trying to remember where that was - might have been over at Phys.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Getting there. 88/72. Need another 4F and couple more on the dew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Legro was determined not to have to estimate another possible CON record. He finally 1-dayed that shit. Lol bet you refreshed it every minute, your day is made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: There we go! Logan flipped out and lost control. Sending in the National Guard to pick up the pieces... wow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Yeah...nothing screams a cold corrective pattern like a first week of August 'sportin' this kinda look ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Holy shit. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KCON&time=GMT You're welcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We actually don't have very good confidence on global precipitation trends over the past 100 years....or even past 50 years. Our region of the globe has become wetter on a more specific spacial scale which is what we are probably used to for the narratives....esp the narrative on the big increase in heavy precip events in the eastern US. But this is not uniform globally and many areas have also become drier. We do know total water vapor has increased, but not actual precip. That's the general finding. More rain when it rains, but more dry days between events, so overall similar precip. The Northeast has one of the stronger correlations to heavy rainfall events increasing in frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: That's the general finding. More rain when it rains, but more dry days between events, so overall similar precip. The Northeast has one of the stronger correlations to heavy rainfall and snowfall events increasing in frequency. Thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 85.5/75F Nice to see Concord back. How can their ASOS be reporting a 69F dew? Brian and I both have dews up to 75F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's the general finding. More rain when it rains, but more dry days between events, so overall similar precip. The Northeast has one of the stronger correlations to heavy rainfall events increasing in frequency. Yeah the northeast/Great Lakes was way stronger than other areas....though I remember telling people to be cautious about that because the most influential study used data starting in 1958....that's about the driest decade to start with as you can pick for the northeast US. I recall the increase in heavy event frequency being like 71%, but if you stretch the data back to 1900, the percent increase is cut roughly in half and the western US goes into a negative trend instead of a positive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: 85.5/75F Nice to see Concord back. How can their ASOS be reporting a 69F dew? Brian and I both have dews up to 75F now. Most ASOS/AWOS are in the 60s. 70s just starting to creep into southern NH now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: 85.5/75F Nice to see Concord back. How can their ASOS be reporting a 69F dew? Brian and I both have dews up to 75F now. Not attempting to impugn your's and Bri's station/instrumentation ... but, unfortunately the truth is these personalized stations are always higher than NWS' ... I mean, the average has pretty much never been the other way around as far as I can tell. Now, that may be location location location? I mean...take the same exact housing and situated on a non-hydro emitting tarmac out amid the blaze of that great microwave emitter in the sky ... seems intuitively plausible that a station in the rural foliage and/or fields over real Earth ...mm might just throw off a bigger moisture signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...nothing screams a cold corrective pattern like a first week of August 'sportin' this kinda look ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the northeast/Great Lakes was way stronger than other areas....though I remember telling people to be cautious about that because the most influential study used data starting in 1958....that's about the driest decade to start with as you can pick for the northeast US. I recall the increase in heavy event frequency being like 71%, but if you stretch the data back to 1900, the percent increase is cut roughly in half and the western US goes into a negative trend instead of a positive one. Looks like the NCA used the 1901 to 2013 period and based changes off a 1901-1979 baseline. But statistically significant areas are definitely Great Lakes, Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not attempting to impugn your's and Bri's station/instrumentation ... but, unfortunately the truth is these personalized stations are always higher than NWS' ... I mean, the average has pretty much never been the other way around as far as I can tell. Now, that may be location location location? I mean...take the same exact housing and situated on a non-hydro emitting tarmac out amid the blaze of that great microwave emitter in the sky ... seems intuitively plausible that a station in the rural foliage and/or fields over real Earth ...mm might just throw off a bigger moisture signal. Thanks. My station is in a field surrounded by apple trees so it makes sense it is higher with moisture coming off the ground. I'm watching the dew on my monitor and it is bouncing around. 72 to 75F. As dews creep up to the low 70's it will be interesting if mine continues to read high. Enjoy the upper 90's down there while I tickle 90F this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the northeast/Great Lakes was way stronger than other areas....though I remember telling people to be cautious about that because the most influential study used data starting in 1958....that's about the driest decade to start with as you can pick for the northeast US. I recall the increase in heavy event frequency being like 71%, but if you stretch the data back to 1900, the percent increase is cut roughly in half and the western US goes into a negative trend instead of a positive one. Not sure I buy it... perhaps I can be sold It just it seems dubious ( to me) that it is endemic to the Lakes and NE ... I could see that as a storm route attributed, and related to what Chris said, where it rains...it's been more prolific. I think it's possible it's more ubiquitous than just the Lakes/NE... Where are classic/climo cyclone routes all over the planet, the real problem is that measuring techniques are not unilateral performed the same way - certainly not historically... Go back 70 years.. .. What we have to realize as scientists and advancing enthusiasts ( not that you don't, just sayn') is that we are on a hockey-stick of sensory technology that was not shared nearly as evenly as near as 20 years ago, ...which was vastly superior to 50 years prior to that... Which was godly compared to a 100 years prior to even then. You get back a couple bucks in history and everything is coring and reanalysis... which has it's usefulness, sure... But, a lot of the honing into climate variance stuff is in the details of decimals? Ahhh...I find that too easily lost in short numbers of decades... And considering the the climate, its self, is also on a hockey stick... we are more so having difficulty comparing the current "flux" era with pre industrialization - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 85.5/75F Nice to see Concord back. How can their ASOS be reporting a 69F dew? Brian and I both have dews up to 75F now. Better mixing at airports...less local evapotranspiration...and the humidity error for Sensirion sensors seem to increase in very high dew situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not attempting to impugn your's and Bri's station/instrumentation ... but, unfortunately the truth is these personalized stations are always higher than NWS' ... I mean, the average has pretty much never been the other way around as far as I can tell. Now, that may be location location location? I mean...take the same exact housing and situated on a non-hydro emitting tarmac out amid the blaze of that great microwave emitter in the sky ... seems intuitively plausible that a station in the rural foliage and/or fields over real Earth ...mm might just throw off a bigger moisture signal. What's the evaporative property of chicken poop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Thanks. My station is in a field surrounded by apple trees so it makes sense it is higher with moisture coming off the ground. I'm watching the dew on my monitor and it is bouncing around. 72 to 75F. As dews creep up to the low 70's it will be interesting if mine continues to read high. Enjoy the upper 90's down there while I tickle 90F this weekend. Yeah... will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Better mixing at airports...less local evapotranspiration...and the humidity error for Sensirion sensors seem to increase in very high dew situations. I argued this for years on here. Will, Scooter, others ..Finally nice to see folks agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I argued this for years on here. Will, Scooter, others ..Finally nice to see folks agree You argued that sensor error was part of it? Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 this is much better than tracking a snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Curious to how many pounds Dr dews has shed so far in his hoodie and sweat pants? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 I will say METAR dews are def creeping up in NH. ASH 75 EEN 73 LCI 72 LEB 72 90/74 at FSO in VT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What's the evaporative property of chicken poop? hhehhgh... ...man, 'magin the DP 2 clicks down wind of a hog farm - does 'smell' effect DP in any way. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I will say METAR dews are def creeping up in NH. ASH 75 EEN 73 LCI 72 LEB 72 90/74 at FSO in VT too. ASH has seemed a little too much Tolland lately, but overall 72/73 is starting to get real good for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 78F dew at ITH. RIP for those in summer courses at Cornell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: hhehhgh... ...man, 'magin the DP 2 clicks down wind of a hog farm - does 'smell' effect DP in any way. haha Folks in Turner Maine down wind of Decoster's Egg Farm could answer this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What's the evaporative property of chicken poop? Pretty high after half a cantaloupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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