weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Great combination of high temperatures, dewpoints, steep lapse rates, and wind shear look to become juxtaposed across northern New England late Saturday. While you would think timing may become a concern, extreme instability looks to remain in place well into the overnight hours. Forecast models indicate a potential MCS developing...or re-energizing as it rides over the crest of the ridge. Wind shear will be more than supportive for organized and sustaining updrafts. Looks like a signal for a widespread damaging wind event may be unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 I don't see anywhere across the US outlooked for Saturday (Day 4) on SPC... don't even mention NE at all anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Better chance Sunday i think, Unless the trough gets here quicker the forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Could be some cap issues Sat, but maybe NNE can get something going on that theta-e gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 NWS BOX throwing out the D word in their latest discussion. SPC still doesn't have us highlighted at all yet. Friday through Sunday ... Hot and humid. H85 temperatures around +20-22C, H7 around +10-12C. But concern. Steep mid-level lapse rates around Saturday, a lot of low-level instability. Shear vectors and orientation that suggest that if something were to become organized over Michigan within the region of steep mid level lapse rates and advect that perhaps we could see MCS / derecho activity Saturday and Sunday. Initial thinking, but nothing set in stone. Initial indications per 17.12z NAM and 17.0z EC, but not much indication in SREF / GFS. It would subsequently impact 2m temperature with cloud cover altering the heat and humidity forecast. Typically when we get the heat and humidity where highs alone approach triple digits do we see via climatology MCS / derecho events. Continued forecast of mid to upper 90 highs, some locations at or just slightly above 100 with dewpoints in the low 70s as boundary layer moisture is trapped beneath the cap, fueled by S flow, yielding heat indices around the triple digits, for some locations at or above 110F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Yeah, talked about this last week/two weeks. Derecho? More likely sw of NE. However most of NE should have a shot at some more severe wx whether it is mcs related or forcing from prefrontal trough or cfp. I think the better shot of mcs would be NY PA maybe WNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 9 hours ago, dendrite said: Could be some cap issues Sat, but maybe NNE can get something going on that theta-e gradient. H7 temps >+12-13...even seeing +14C on the GFS...that's pretty damn strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 Signals are still there for a rather significant event. Obviously the capping is an issue, but it's not like we're looking for initiation...the convection will already initiated and will be moving in from SE Canada. Heights do begin to fall during the evening and forcing slightly increases as the trough moves into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 I've edited to include Sunday as severe weather potential increases across the remainder of the region. Biggest threat again for damaging winds in association with a line..perhaps multiple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 So has this switched to more of a Sunday thing ... seems this threads opener describes Sunday more succinctly - Saturday one would think we are capped and searing ... exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 I am still a bit shocked there isn't some risk area across NNE for tomorrow. I totally understand it's capped, but we're not looking for convection to develop...it's going to already be in place and arriving from the W or WNW. Could be a rather nasty MCS trucking through tomorrow night up north. We are big time capped Sunday too, but looks like there is some room to weaken that Sunday evening and we get stuff to fire off..don't know how widespread but whatever develops could be quite significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 Looks like Monday could feature widespread action...though we may have lost the best ingredients for a big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like Monday could feature widespread action...though we may have lost the best ingredients for a big event Is this still NNE wiz or throughout ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is this still NNE wiz or throughout ? Throughout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 CAMs are pretty meh overall, but I'm a little curious what this anomalous jet streak might do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: CAMs are pretty meh overall, but I'm a little curious what this anomalous jet streak might do. I am a little perplexed that MCS sort of fizzles like the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 CAMS have been all over the place. Still don't seem to have a good handle of the derecho out west as it heads towards NNE. I still think there could be issues tonight up in NY/NNE. 18z NAM NEST goes wild down here too over the next few hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: CAMS have been all over the place. Still don't seem to have a good handle of the derecho out west as it heads towards NNE. I still think there could be issues tonight up in NY/NNE. 18z NAM NEST goes wild down here too over the next few hours lol I'm interested in this stuff in Quebec now, although it does stabilize fairly quickly as you move from VT into NH. You can see the Cu field basically nonexistent across the GYX CWA right now. But I'm very interested in CAMs insisting on some sort of MCS moving through around 12z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm interested in this stuff in Quebec now, although it does stabilize fairly quickly as you move from VT into NH. You can see the Cu field basically nonexistent across the GYX CWA right now. But I'm very interested in CAMs insisting on some sort of MCS moving through around 12z tomorrow morning. It does look like we get a llvl jet max moving through between 6-12z with some decent height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 This has been getting delayed... As it stands now, inside the day-4 Euro's wheel house and the front is slowed enough that given any sunshine at all Monday morning and we pop back up over 90 real quick S of VT/NH borders down here... With frontal drap also stalled as S/W digs into the Lakes... that day is becoming a bigger player. Tomorrow ( Sunday ) may still rock and roll.. We just have pig SB CAPE so any kind of Lake front/breeze boundary triggers or oreographic assisted hole punches will probably do what is happening now actually...with windy cells ripping down the Mohawk Trail... But, the systemic lift and jet mechanical stuff occurs with EML slipping away and we could have problems on Monday. 18 z MAV (GFS MOS) came in over 80 F south of Rt 2 ...so I suspect the GFS cluster is slowly coming around to belaying fropa, too. Just some modeling observations to consider - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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