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Mid-July Heat Wave


Chicago Storm
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4 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Temps in Southern Wisconsin May be impacted with this early morning MCS; starting in the low to mid 70s as opposed to the progged upper 70s, as well as some cloud cover most likely may make a difference.

Those storms went "poof" when the LLJ did, but they did their job and helped reinforce the cold pool along the I-90 corridor.

The stage is now set.  Visible shows the cirrus canopy will soon be a non-factor as it thins and blows off to the east.  It's clearing out very well in C and W WI and I see a couple of outflow boundaries: one along the I-90 corridor, the other draped just west of the Mississippi River through NE IA and into S MN.  Sure the EML is strong there and advecting in but there's moisture everywhere else which might be why most of MN is cloudy (are those ACCUS clouds entering WI around MSP right now?)

Still some cons so I can still see a bust on the 90s.  Next few hours are key.  Do clouds persist or does subsidence rule the day?  Most NWS offices are saying the latter.

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Cirrus debris from the morning MCS in WI has been hanging on this morning, and only slowly clearing. Additionally, a remnant disturbance in S WI is pushing ESE, with an OFB and a canopy of lower level clouds.

At this point, it looks just when the cirrus will clear, the stuff from WI will move in.

Odds are today will under-perform once again.


.

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30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

To say i'm surprised is an understatement.

It will likely hold, breaking the high min temp for the date of 78 (2011).

Given where temps were around midnight, I thought it might sneak down to 79, at least intrahour.  Really shows the kind of airmass... not only warm but extremely moist.  Even here it didn't drop below 80.

Convection tomorrow brings some uncertainty but there is a legit possibility that tomorrow ends up being the hottest day.

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Its certainly possible tomorrow is the hottest day of 2019 in southern Ontario, my forecast was bumped up to 90 with a HI of 106. The last time my humidex was that or greater was 2016?. Maybe even 2011 and if tomorrow is realized then it would be just one day off from the 8 year anniversary of the hottest day of the decade and one of the hottest temperatures verified IMBY of 38ºC (July 21).

This morning it was 86 feeling like 97! Storms rolled in a few hours ago but not severe like EC was warning for of course. Very dark so far today :thumbsdown:.

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

79 degree dew point in Indy now. Highest it's been since July 20, 2011. Remember that day as well. It was at the time 97 with 79 dew heat index 115

Toledo has 90/77/103 right now. I don't remember ever seeing a dew point higher than 76 at Toledo.

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Was outside a little while ago and it actually didn't feel quite as oppressive as I thought it would.  I think the wind helps the comfort level to some extent.  You put 90/80 in calm conditions and that is going to have a different feel, which is what that WBGT index or whatever it was called that LOT posted about the other day was factoring in.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

93/81/115 at K06C.

Highest combo in the area it appears.

IGQ right behind at 92/81

ORD is a virtual lock to not drop below 80 overnight, but it would take the ultimate magic act to get it to hold through all of Saturday.

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Watching to see if MDW can get an 80 degree dew.  They have had some obs of 79 including the most recent one.  Obviously tougher to pull off in a more urban environment like that.  I'd have to double check but I don't think they have had an 80 degree dew there since July 1999.

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