Is next winter looking like a disaster?

[frd]

I think I understand the implied meaning 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Still climbing Up 

 

 

 

Those winters weren't pretty.

[frd]

20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Those winters weren't pretty.

I know,  but just one part of the drivers for the upcoming winter. I am interested more so because of IOD combined with other features.  

I don't see those years as analogs regardless. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

I know,  but just one part of the drivers for the upcoming winter. I am interested more so because of IOD combined with other features.  

I don't see those years as analogs regardless. 

Probably want to keep an eye on what we see off Japan when it comes to the IOD influence for the northern Pacific. Typically during a + phase we see warm anoms off the coast of Japan.

Right now we do see mostly warm anoms there.

But if we look at the 7 day change we do see the waters cooling at this time.

[frd]

This is another interesting tidbit when used as a roll over to the months of November and even more so December 

 

Additional resource link from HM

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/Data.html

 

[WxUSAF]

DTs first winter forecast preview out. Leaning cold and snowy for now based on warm neutral ENSO, qbo, solar min, and trend toward high latitude blocking.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

DTs first winter forecast preview out. Leaning cold and snowy for now based on warm neutral ENSO, qbo, solar min, and trend toward high latitude blocking.

Its still downloading for me...I will check it out in the morning 

[Roger Smith]

Near average overall, some portions quite mild, others rather cold, with reasonable chances for at least one big winter storm. 

I ran my research model and came up with rather indecisive index values that were generally near long-term averages for the eastern U.S. in general. Still, as with Jan 2016, it just takes that one time for everything to align and you get the memorable storm despite lack of a memorable winter overall. Could be something along those lines. 

West could have a colder than normal winter which is one reason why reluctant to say cold in east, despite plenty of high latitude blocking and potent arctic air masses likely. 

Typical storm track may be fairly close to region keeping conditions mixed (OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA). As a result, may be a good snowfall winter at WV ski areas even if rather average for snow in the coastal plain. 

[poolz1]

I do like the propensity for blocking in Can and Greenland in the LR.  We dont seem to be losing this as we head into the meat of fall....a good sign imo. Both the GEFS and EC form a pretty potent Aleutian trough toward the end of the period.  Both get to this end result in basically the manner....retro the trough off the west coast and merge with another just west of the Aleutians.  Out there in the very LR but good to see some agreement...maybe an early start to things as other have alluded. Love cold Novembers...just hope it doesn't morph into a warm Dec.

[frd]

I am not so sure I agree here with Pastelok, I mean all he is saying to me is climo  and that garbage about a mix of rain and snow.   

Personally I can see an earlier start to winter.  OK, so lately winter arrives late in these parts but does past consistency = future reliability? 

This is from the Accu Weather Winter forecast:

https://www.chinookobserver.com/news/local/accuweather-special-report-u-s-winter-forecast/article_31f71be2-e602-11e9-921b-1f42c85224b3.html

Northeast

Despite a few cold spells across the Northeast during autumn, winter’s chill won’t arrive until at least the end of 2019.

Pastelok said: “I think you’re going to see a touch of winter come in in December. But I think it’s full force will hold out until after the New Year.”

Once the wintry weather does get underway, an active season will be in store.

“Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

Above-normal snowfall could be in store for areas from New York City to Boston.

Meanwhile, cities farther south, including Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, will be more likely to see a mix of rain and snow.

 

 

[frd]

Some interesting changes in the NAO and AO domains from a few days ago. Meanwhile as this happens we are rapidly increasing  NH snow cover. 

I know this -NAO mean chilly and rain,  but what if this cycles continue in the colder months ?  If this happens in October, versus say July and August,  maybe it offers a higher quality signal of a - NAO for DJF.  Seems we might be near or entering a longer cycle - AO and -NAO state. 

  

  

 

 

[CAPE]

QBO dropped to 8.25 for September.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

QBO dropped to 8.25 for September.

That's awesome news. Not a huge move,  but a move at least, and not a stall.  And, we still have time as well . 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, poolz1 said:

I do like the propensity for blocking in Can and Greenland in the LR.  We dont seem to be losing this as we head into the meat of fall....a good sign imo. Both the GEFS and EC form a pretty potent Aleutian trough toward the end of the period.  Both get to this end result in basically the manner....retro the trough off the west coast and merge with another just west of the Aleutians.  Out there in the very LR but good to see some agreement...maybe an early start to things as other have alluded. Love cold Novembers...just hope it doesn't morph into a warm Dec.

CanSIPS has been all over it for multiple runs. Gets legit progressing through this month.

QBO dropped again, and along with the solar min, and persistence, I am a bit more optimistic than previous winters where the models were constantly engaging in false advertisement.

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, frd said:

I am not so sure I agree here with Pastelok, I mean all he is saying to me is climo  and that garbage about a mix of rain and snow.   

Personally I can see an earlier start to winter.  OK, so lately winter arrives late in these parts but does past consistency = future reliability? 

This is from the Accu Weather Winter forecast:

https://www.chinookobserver.com/news/local/accuweather-special-report-u-s-winter-forecast/article_31f71be2-e602-11e9-921b-1f42c85224b3.html

Northeast

Despite a few cold spells across the Northeast during autumn, winter’s chill won’t arrive until at least the end of 2019.

Pastelok said: “I think you’re going to see a touch of winter come in in December. But I think it’s full force will hold out until after the New Year.”

Once the wintry weather does get underway, an active season will be in store.

“Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

Above-normal snowfall could be in store for areas from New York City to Boston.

Meanwhile, cities farther south, including Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, will be more likely to see a mix of rain and snow.

He (or whoever quoted him) used an apostrophe to create the possessive “its,” so I wouldn’t trust a word he says.

Seriously...who edits this crap?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

He (or whoever quoted him) used an apostrophe to create the possessive “its,” so I wouldn’t trust a word he says.

Seriously...who edits this crap?

I always thought "it's" was a contraction for  "it is".

[CAPE]

That "forecast " sucks either way. It's (it is) Farmer's Almanac level garbage.

[poolz1]

CanSIPS has been all over it for multiple runs. Gets legit progressing through this month.
QBO dropped again, and along with the solar min, and persistence, I am a bit more optimistic than previous winters where the models were constantly engaging in false advertisement.

Great to see the QBO continue to fall. Something certainly feels different...a different regime. The constant inability to maintain higher heights where we want them seems to be changing. Still gun shy from last season but feeling positive so far. This is a good look...hopefully we get something similar late November.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

13 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Near average overall, some portions quite mild, others rather cold, with reasonable chances for at least one big winter storm. 

I ran my research model and came up with rather indecisive index values that were generally near long-term averages for the eastern U.S. in general. Still, as with Jan 2016, it just takes that one time for everything to align and you get the memorable storm despite lack of a memorable winter overall. Could be something along those lines. 

West could have a colder than normal winter which is one reason why reluctant to say cold in east, despite plenty of high latitude blocking and potent arctic air masses likely. 

Typical storm track may be fairly close to region keeping conditions mixed (OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA). As a result, may be a good snowfall winter at WV ski areas even if rather average for snow in the coastal plain. 

That seems much more plausible!

[frd]

Wonder how this forecast and the MJO progression falls in line with HM's post a few days ago. 

 

 

[aldie 22]

On 9/12/2019 at 12:58 PM, leesburg 04 said:

Hot and dry August into September always makes me daydream about 02-03. I don't mind if we stay warm and dry into October then bang!!

SCIENCE!!

This guy may be on to something 

[mattie g]

43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I always thought "it's" was a contraction for  "it is".

<grammar nazi rant>

“It has” or “it is” - there is no other use for it. Any other instance of that homophone is spelled “its.”

</grammar nazi rant>

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

<grammar nazi rant>

“It has” or “it is” - there is no other use for it. Any other instance of that homophone is spelled “its.”

</grammar nazi rant>

 lol I thought you were criticizing this sentence: “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

That caught my eye because I read the bolded first and then read up. I didn't even notice the offending sentence. That one is indeed incorrect. 

eta- I am a bit of a grammar nazi myself(mostly homophones), but I am more lenient in forum threads  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 lol I thought you were criticizing this sentence: “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

That caught my eye because I read the bolded first and then read up. I didn't even notice the offending sentence. That one is indeed incorrect. 

eta- I am a bit of a grammar nazi myself(mostly homophones), but I am more lenient in forum threads  

your Right grammer b vary Important with out it youre posts arent goood 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 lol I thought you were criticizing this sentence: “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

That caught my eye because I read the bolded first and then read up. I didn't even notice the offending sentence. That one is indeed incorrect. 

eta- I am a bit of a grammar nazi myself(mostly homophones), but I am more lenient in forum threads  

Lol. Yeah...I was referring to the first “it’s.”

I just cringe when I read it in forums or on social media - I won’t criticize - but in a published article? Ugh...

[nw baltimore wx]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 lol I thought you were criticizing this sentence: “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said.

That caught my eye because I read the bolded first and then read up. I didn't even notice the offending sentence. That one is indeed incorrect. 

eta- I am a bit of a grammar nazi myself(mostly homophones), but I am more lenient in forum threads  

I missed the first one too and then after Mattie’s scolding, I thought maybe I had been wrong all these years. Glad to know that I have been right and just can’t read.

[frd]

Wonder if this continues to ramp up, or as Judah mentions we get stall or a reversal.  

Regardless, nice to see some snowfall up North.

 

 

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder if this continues to ramp up, or as Judah mentions we get stall or a reversal.  

Regardless, nice to see some snowfall up North.

 

 

Really wish I could see what you and others are posting from Twitter. Haven't been able to see any of them for over a month now. Can't figure out what the issue is. Tried disabling my ad-block as well as the Nortons Web Safe to see if they may be the cause. But no luck there. The fact that it does throw it up for a second or so before it drops it makes me wonder if it maybe is timing out on the download? Kind of pi**ing me off at this point.

[frd]

34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really wish I could see what you and others are posting from Twitter. Haven't been able to see any of them for over a month now. Can't figure out what the issue is. Tried disabling my ad-block as well as the Nortons Web Safe to see if they may be the cause. But no luck there. The fact that it does throw it up for a second or so before it drops it makes me wonder if it maybe is timing out on the download? Kind of pi**ing me off at this point.

Sorry to hear that.  Once in a while I get something that states I am rate limited,  but after that I simply reload the app and then it works fine. Maybe just do a little more research and see what you can find out for a cause. There has to be a reason, but it is annoying. Good luck !  

[Cobalt]

40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really wish I could see what you and others are posting from Twitter. Haven't been able to see any of them for over a month now. Can't figure out what the issue is. Tried disabling my ad-block as well as the Nortons Web Safe to see if they may be the cause. But no luck there. The fact that it does throw it up for a second or so before it drops it makes me wonder if it maybe is timing out on the download? Kind of pi**ing me off at this point.

Maybe your browser sees it as a pop-up and tries to block it? I'm not sure. If I were you, I'd try a different browser, or even the incognito mode on Google Chrome.