Is next winter looking like a disaster?

[frd]

HM was talking about the IOD,  and wow to this spike up. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

HM was talking about the IOD,  and wow to this spike up. 

 

Could you elaborate a bit more on what the IOD actually is? (and what we need it to do? Lol)

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you elaborate a bit more on what the IOD actually is? (and what we need it to do? Lol)

It’s basically an Indian Ocean ENSO, and the positive phase tends to correlate to positive ENSO.

[pasnownut]

21 hours ago, frd said:

With the IOD at records highs it is one of the main drivers currently . The UKMET keeps it positive all winter. Although it does decline in time. Makes you wonder whether the impact of it can indeed produce an early winter arrival this year.  

 

 

I'm just going to weenie my way into a good winter by cherrypicking all signs that help us. 

That said, I'm liking to see the reemergence of Modoki Nino as Ben suggests.  Hope that look gains traction....just like good snow tires.

[frd]

For those desiring a weaker early season PV. 

and this ........

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

I like the sound of this from HM 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Not really enthused with what I see on the GEFS in regards to the PV in the extended. Below is day 16 at the top of the atmosphere (10mb) and you will notice that the core of the PV as well as the coldest temps are centered on top of the pole. Also notice the the pv is quite rounded. This is not the look of a weakened and/or displaced pv but of one that is strengthening.

 

 

Now lets step down to 250 mb where the jet is. below we see the current jet setup which is actually a good look for disturbing the pv. If you notice the jet streaks are snaking all over the place with intrusions into the upper latitudes (Circled). These intrusions are pumping up temps and heights around the pole which help to weaken the pv.

 

But this is what we are looking at on day 16. We are seeing the jet taking on a more circular shape around the pv without intrusions into the upper latitudes. Also if you look at the wind barbs you notice we are also seeing the core of the pv centered over the pole. Not only that we are starting to see a strong Pac jet now popping up (circled) which is also a good indicator that we are seeing a strengthening/strong pv. This feature has bitten us in the ass on numerous occasions over the years including last year. This is really not the look I want to see as we are progressing through the formation of the pv. 

 

 

Now we will step down to 500 mb. What we are seeing currently are some great looking height builds into the pole and as a consequence the pv is split and displaced off the pole (2 major pieces circled). Also if we look at the general overall wave lengths that are circling the general pv we are seeing large undulations. Good look.

 

 

But now we have day 16. We are no longer seeing large undulations with the wave lengths that circle the broader scale features of the pv as they are flattening out (black circle). We are also seeing the core of the pv strengthening, rounding and planting over the pole underneath the pv at 250 and 10 mbs.

 

 

Now when we look at the temps at 850 mbs we notice all the heat around the pole presently. This is indicative of height builds through that region which are disruptive to the placement and strength of the pv. Again a good look.

 

And yet when we look at day 16 notice much of that heat has now bled away as the pv is strengthening and building downward through the atmosphere.

 

Now some of what I posted above can maybe be attributed to smoothing that we see when we get to the end of the extended but I think it is above and beyond what would be typical. Maybe as that period of time nears we will see the finer details popping out and giving us a better look or even maybe the GEFS is just flat out wrong. But at this point all the signs on the GEFS in my mind are pointing to a strong pv forming as we head into late fall and early winter.

**** Want to try to get a winter outlook out by the end of October. Have started on it but have been so busy with other things (and that looks to continue) I am not so sure I can find the time. I will say that I am not getting the warm and fuzzies when it comes to the front end of the winter. As far as the middle and back end that is still up in the air in my mind as I do see some things that are promising. Could very well be a winter where we see one extreme to the other (warm/dry to cold/wet) as we see a major flip sometime in the middle of winter.  But as I said I have just started looking at things so these are just preliminary thoughts.

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not really enthused with what I see on the GEFS in regards to the PV in the extended...

It’s September 29.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, mattie g said:

It’s September 29.

So it is.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@showmethesnow just canceled winter!

Nah. 

At least not yet. 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

At least not yet

I actually have no opinion or high expectations for the winter ahead after last year and in this new era of warming. Personally a cold PV at this point  would not bother me in the least. Lets grow the the ice and show fields up North and put down snow cover  and see where it takes us.  Its way too early to offer any idea about the upcoming winter. Things will change and skill is not that high. I know you know that showme , but many folks put too much faith in super long range forecasts. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I actually have no opinion or high expectations for the winter ahead after last year and in this new era of warming. Personally a cold PV at this point  would not bother me in the least. Lets grow the the ice and show fields up North and put down snow cover  and see where it takes us.  Its way too early to offer any idea about the upcoming winter. Things will change and skill is not that high. I know you know that showme , but many folks put too much faith in super long range forecasts. 

You really don't want to see a strong and building pv early on, in the late fall heading into the winter. It just makes it that much more difficult to disrupt and displace. That said the above post was more an observation of what the GEFS was showing at this time. For all I know the EPS is going in another direction as I have yet to re up my weatherbell to find out. Or the GEFS is just flat out wrong. 

Now as far as what  the GEFS is showing at this time, I would prefer not to see that but I can live with it because it is still early. But if it is spitting out those looks and tendencies come mid/late November then that is a different story.

[frd]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Now as far as what  the GEFS is showing at this time, I would prefer not to see that but I can live with it because it is still early. But if it is spitting out those looks and tendencies come mid/late November then that is a different story.

Of course,  that goes without saying. Lets see what the next few weeks bring in terms of any trends or precursors to early season PV effects. 

Last winter there were documented events in certain areas (  precursors  ) that indicated the PV would be susceptible to a weakening or even a split.  We all know what happened and some blame that event for ruining the winter. Well, that's a different story, and no need to rehash it. A lot happened that could be brought up.   

Meanwhile lets see what happens here next, more so for October , but still transporting heat North and also expect some effects on the Northern Jet with these systems as  HM alludes to this morning. Would think North Atlantic wave breaking as well in October . 

 

  

[frd]

@showmethesnow

A interesting read regarding.  Some seem to think a SSW event, and even a split, is close at hand. But, as you mention showme,  and correctly,  that is not the case. 

I bring this over for your reading pleasure form 33andrain - it does hit on a few things of interest.  

 

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Posted 12 hours ago

  15 hours ago, samsara2 said:

It's comingggggg

 

I bet we see a full split 10-15-10/20

 

PLZ bump troll if i am wrong 

 

Read more  

 

I am by no means an an expert on anything, but I have two things to say right off the bat:

 

1. First mistake is looking at a GFS Op run beyond day five (lmao)

2. This is NOT an image that portends an impending split, in my humble opinion

 

HOWEVER, you did make me curious, so in the two seconds I had at work I took a peek at things. All I had time for was to pull up a H5 anomaly graphic for the month of September (see below). Two key regions where studies have shown enhanced success at vertical heat flux transport disrupting/weakening the vortex (Wave-1 flux) are (roughly) the NAO/EPO/WPO domains. If substantially anomalous ridging can become quasi-permanently established in these regions for periods in excess of one to two weeks (depending on the strength of the anomalies), enhanced vertical fluxes can begin taking their toll on disrupting the vortex, leading to stretching, and in strong/successful cases, fracturing, generally at lead times of 4-6 weeks post flux initiation. Take a look below - I do not see any substantial vortex disruption based on that look. If anything, I see general maintenance/strengthening in accordance with climatology. However, I would need time to look at other sources to see how successful any fluxes have been to date, and I honestly just don’t have it. I also do not know what guidance looks like over the next couple of weeks to add insight on whether or not we see increased perturbation via Wave-1. In this case, I defer to @Isotherm for further insight/correction to my simplistic understanding. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

As much as I love Joe Bastardi's work, he just doesn't seem to understand Mid-Atlantic climo. https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

[WxUSAF]

There’s a whole lot joe bastardi doesn’t understand.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s a whole lot joe bastardi doesn’t understand.

Glad to see he is man enough to mention his darling Pioneer model busted badly as did he. Thats a plus, because folks remember .

<<

. Naturally, the only model to see cold is the model that hits the cold when it comes, the Pioneer. Last year it busted badly in the Southeast, and I spent half the winter explaining what went on. However, what I did see was a lot of cold in the pattern. No surprise it looks quite cold given the analogs.

 

>>

[showmethesnow]

@frd Not really sure what samsara is seeing that he thinks there is a potential split in the works. Especially if he is just going by the 10 mb map he is displaying. That is a pretty rock solid pv with very little displacement off the pole and with no indications of a major disturbance/flux incoming anywhere. Maybe he is seeing something at a lower level of the atmosphere and posted the wrong map?

[aldie 22]

I still think its funny that 10 years ago by October 1st we were knee deep in winter discussions and predictions and maps and all kinds of wild stuff. It's just me I suppose but I enjoyed that time more. Don't get me wrong I love the detailed analysis and I'm impressed with the knowledge in here for sure....but it's like a no salt water cracker now without any cheese. 

I feel like a decent winter is coming if we break cold late fall and it turns wet again...just a feeling from living here so long.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I still think its funny that 10 years ago by October 1st we were knee deep in winter discussions and predictions and maps and all kinds of wild stuff. It's just me I suppose but I enjoyed that time more. Don't get me wrong I love the detailed analysis and I'm impressed with the knowledge in here for sure....but it's like a no salt water cracker now without any cheese. 

I feel like a decent winter is coming if we break cold late fall and it turns wet again...just a feeling from living here so long.

Nor'easter watches aren't far off even if they're all liquid.

[frd]

 

Will be interesting to see the effect on the + IOD

 

[clskinsfan]

I actually thought Bastardi's write up was one of his better ones. The one thing I have learned over the past few winters is that even though we think we are getting better at long term winter forecasting we arent. Some of the signs of a chance for a decent winter are there. But they were there two years ago as well. And that winter was abysmal. Last year was a good year out here. I am thinking it will be even better this year. If nothing else the MJO should be better this year. The long range forecasting has it staying pretty favorable into late winter. 

[CAPE]

New CanSIPS is out. Looking at h5 height anomalies, there is a ridiculous amount of red lol.

Good news is, its mostly in the right places, and our region is not in any of it from Nov through Feb.

[CAPE]

I 'think' this may be implying a weakened PV. 

[CAPE]

Gotta hope the CanSIPS is onto something though. This is the third straight run of advertising the same general idea- significant HL blocking and a PNA/EPO ridge.

We haven't seen this sort of look advertised on super LR/climate models for ages...right? 

[poolz1]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Gotta hope the CanSIPS is onto something though. This is the third straight run of advertising the same general idea- significant HL blocking and a PNA/EPO ridge.

We haven't seen this sort of look advertised on super LR/climate models for ages...right? 

Another consistent theme with the SIPS has been the continuation of current dry conditions.  I have no idea the accuracy of precip predictions and assume its probably similar to looking at 2m temps months in advance.  Neither 2m temps or precip anoms look correct given that look at H5.  But, 850 anoms look great.... Who knows? No doubt I would take my chances with that look... Wall to wall baby!

[Maestrobjwa]

A bit of weenieism here, but...here it is anyway (interestingly enough, the only below average years on this chart were la nina years--naturally, lol)

[Jebman]

On 9/26/2019 at 10:09 AM, pasnownut said:

I'm just going to weenie my way into a good winter by cherrypicking all signs that help us. 

That said, I'm liking to see the reemergence of Modoki Nino as Ben suggests.  Hope that look gains traction....just like good snow tires.

You are definitely gonna need those snow tires. And a good supply of Jebman snow shovels.

This is going to be a very frigid winter full of snows for the entire Mid Atlantic region!

[Prestige Worldwide]

maybe some good news for snow enthusiasts 

[frd]

Still climbing Up