psuhoffman Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: This advertised h5 look through winter looks heavily influenced by the TNH pattern. Another "issue" we had to deal with last winter. The whole northern Hem is a torch though. Other than two small geographic regions everyone is above normal heights. Everyone is focused on our exact location of course but it’s highly unlikely any specific location would look good given that hemispheric look. Technically there is a trough in the means over us but it does us no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The whole northern Hem is a torch though. Other than two small geographic regions everyone is above normal heights. Everyone is focused on our exact location of course but it’s highly unlikely any specific location would look good given that hemispheric look. Technically there is a trough in the means over us but it does us no good. I see what you are saying with all the red, but I don't focus so much on the magnitude of the h5 anomalies on these seasonal/climate models. They simply aren't realistic for anything more than the general idea. Zoom out. Big picture. On the Euro Gif above, Dec and Jan have a SE/WAR very close by. Mean trough in the west. Feb looks better, but not great. Remember the discussion you and I had last winter about how the pattern was close and seemed like it would evolve but the trough kept reloading too far west and SE ridge would only get knocked back temporarily then reemerge? This has that sort of look, which is characteristic of a pattern influenced by the TNH. See the image below. Anyway that's what stuck out to me looking at that Gif. I will have to go back and review it, but I think that ties in with ENSO and possibly the strong Pac jet of late. Not to say that is a bad look, but we would be playing with fire and would favor areas further north/inland. Thats pretty much how it turned out last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 18, 2019 Author Share Posted September 18, 2019 boy this winter is off to a rocky start and no @Bob Chill this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I see what you are saying with all the red, but I don't focus so much on the magnitude of the h5 anomalies on these seasonal/climate models. They simply aren't realistic for anything more than the general idea. Zoom out. Big picture. On the Euro Gif above, Dec and Jan have a SE/WAR very close by. Mean trough in the west. Feb looks better, but not great. Remember the discussion you and I had last winter about how the pattern was close and seemed like it would evolve but the trough kept reloading too far west and SE ridge would only get knocked back temporarily then reemerge? This has that sort of look, which is characteristic of a pattern influenced by the TNH. See the image below. Anyway that's what stuck out to me looking at that Gif. I will have to go back and review it, but I think that ties in with ENSO and possibly the strong Pac jet of late. Not to say that is a bad look, but we would be playing with fire and would favor areas further north/inland. Thats pretty much how it turned out last winter. Don’t disagree at all with any of this. I’m not worried about the specific micro looks yet though since the climate models have been awful in this pattern lately. There are conflicting signals. Some things I like. Some I don’t. I have no idea yet what will end up the dominant influences this winter. I was just noticing at the macro level everything seems skewed warm. That’s not necessarily a death blow but when we are barely cold enough to snow on the southern fringes of where snow can even be considered a regular occurrence seeing things skew more and more warm isn’t comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: boy this winter is off to a rocky start and no @Bob Chill this year He better be back or I’m driving around Rockville until I find him 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: boy this winter is off to a rocky start and no @Bob Chill this year lol CanSIPS says we rock all winter. And Chill will return by Oct 1. You should change the thread title. Might as well make this the winter discussion thread, since that's what it has evolved into. There is some good stuff here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 I like this very much and could help us here. Maybe forcing will be dateline centered, while the Eastern Pac cools off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 If you believe his hype and so-called proof it really doesn't matter one way or another, but I still feel it is much better to have a decent cryosphere. I personally don't weight the SAI but I do like to see a lot of snow up North. Last year started great, and then as many of you remember, we lost huge amounts of NA snow cover after the excellent start. I still prefer to see it snow covered than not up North. So that's the reason for this post. A decent start so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: boy this winter is off to a rocky start and no @Bob Chill this year Dang, we ran him away too? Smh We're running out of knowledgeable posters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang, we ran him away too? Smh We're running out of knowledgeable posters! Where did Bob go ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Bob will be back. Like most people, other than us losers, he has better things to do when the weather is nice. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: I like this very much and could help us here. Maybe forcing will be dateline centered, while the Eastern Pac cools off. This is one of the good signs IMO. If the current SSTAs in the ENSO region hold for the most part, we should have the convection in a location that would allow for more ridging around AK and the western US. If we cant get the Atlantic to help(winter -NAO extinct), we need the Pacific to not be hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is one of the good signs IMO. If the current SSTAs in the ENSO region hold for the most part, we should have the convection in a location that would allow for more ridging around AK and the western US. If we cant get the Atlantic to help(winter -NAO extinct), we need the Pacific to not be hostile. No pac puke please! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 23 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought your Avatar might melt if ya came out before December But a good maestro trolling draws ya out--how about that! Welcome back, lol just havin fun..... I stayed out of the cave this year.....you guys are too much fun to miss.... Looking forward to autumn and the prelude to winter (or what should be winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 14 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is one of the good signs IMO. If the current SSTAs in the ENSO region hold for the most part, we should have the convection in a location that would allow for more ridging around AK and the western US. If we cant get the Atlantic to help(winter -NAO extinct), we need the Pacific to not be hostile. Agreed. We all know Pac drives our weather bus, so if we are struggling with other indicies (NAO/AO), then at least if we can get the PNA in our favor, at least we line up better for what cold might be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: just havin fun..... I stayed out of the cave this year.....you guys are too much fun to miss.... Looking forward to autumn and the prelude to winter (or what should be winter). Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 New CPC outlook through the end of 2019 is a torch and BN precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Hi guys, South Carolina here more presumably the Upstate between Charlotte and Atlanta. Do you care if I stay for a bit. I'm always learning and its a little more exciting in this group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Looks like he found the analogs JB gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: New CPC outlook through the end of 2019 is a torch and BN precip. Here we go with that emoji again...in SEPTEMBER, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 So many conflicting early signals. It’s fun to talk about, but any “forecast” is worth the weight of a fart at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, mattie g said: So many conflicting early signals. It’s fun to talk about, but any “forecast” is worth the weight of a fart at this point. Now is the time to be optimistic. I have been focusing more on what appear to be 'good signals' at this juncture. All our hopes and dreams will surely be crushed, probably incrementally, in due time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Now is the time to be optimistic. I have been focusing more on what appear to be 'good signals' at this juncture. All our hopes and dreams will surely be crushed, probably incrementally, in due time. Agreed. No harm in looking at things, but, realistically, any “forecasts” are guesses right now. I’m going into this winter with very low expectations. I just think that the overall background warm state has us rowing upstream. Maybe I’m wrong, but we’re so borderline as it is that a general tip to the warmer side of things will certainly spell nothing but bad for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Agreed. No harm in looking at things, but, realistically, any “forecasts” are guesses right now. I’m going into this winter with very low expectations. I just think that the overall background warm state has us rowing upstream. Maybe I’m wrong, but we’re so borderline as it is that a general tip to the warmer side of things will certainly spell nothing but bad for us. I never go in expecting the winters of a few years ago. We fail way more than we score. That's just reality. Plus even if we do get good set ups with cold air in place, we still need luck. Last December was a good example. I am prepared to chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Now is the time to be optimistic. I have been focusing more on what appear to be 'good signals' at this juncture. All our hopes and dreams will surely be crushed, probably incrementally, in due time. interesting post from bluewave here it is worth a mention ..... <<<< 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the more active MJO is shifting us back to a warmer pattern for the rest of September. Much more Niña-like pattern with the big ridge building north of Hawaii. So we are shifting away from the big Canadian high pattern that has dominated since August. Going forward we have to monitor the ridging north of Hawaii. That was one of the factors that spoiled last winter. If this ridge becomes more established north of Hawaii, then that record warm SST blob could shift west with it. Probably too early to know for winter. But just something to monitor going forward. >>>>> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 5 hours ago, CADEffect said: Hi guys, South Carolina here more presumably the Upstate between Charlotte and Atlanta. Do you care if I stay for a bit. I'm always learning and its a little more exciting in this group. Personally, I'm all for sharing sub-regions. Just don't overstay your welcome, because the other guys will make your time rather unpleasant if you do. As long as you don't talk about your region here, you should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Agreed. No harm in looking at things, but, realistically, any “forecasts” are guesses right now. I’m going into this winter with very low expectations. I just think that the overall background warm state has us rowing upstream. Maybe I’m wrong, but we’re so borderline as it is that a general tip to the warmer side of things will certainly spell nothing but bad for us. I agree. Signals have not been great early. For what it's worth, the tropical Pacific is probably the best region to extend far out into the long range for any season. The eastern tropical Pacific seems to be cooling rather quickly. One saving grace is that the daily SOI today was -35 and that seems quite unusual with the beginning stages of a possible nina. Beyond that, I like to find analogs of global ssta values globally compared to other years. I haven't looked at analogs yet myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 6 hours ago, mattie g said: So many conflicting early signals. It’s fun to talk about, but any “forecast” is worth the weight of a fart at this point. Pretty much, lol I think the most tangible thing you can really monitor right now is ENSO state. For me, I like looking at that because it seems like...for each ENSO state, there is a specific range of possibilities that you can see in our history. While no result is 100% (or even 90%, lol)...there seems to be a general tendency of where those winters end up (with exceptions, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Per the gefs the PAC jet looks as if it will take a beating the next 2+ weeks. Latest run shows it looks fairly tame at the end of the extended. Quite a few previous runs follow with this general theme as well. Also the gefs is hitting pretty hard on the idea of a STJ setting up as well, a pineapple Express. Still quite early so let's see where we stand 3-4 weeks down the road with those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Take with a grain of salt, but snow cover to the North builds through October despite the lower 48 very warmish. Can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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