MDstorm Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: A further look at the seasonal Could be right. However, for now I will file this in the same trash can that this guy’s Euro long range outlook tweets from last year wound up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Anyone else having problems with the twitter coming up on the posts? Starts to throw it up for me but then stops and just leaves me the users comment. Been having problems with it for a week or so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 when do the Siberian snow cover and ground temp depth maps start to appear? asking for my cousin Bertha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: when do the Siberian snow cover and ground temp depth maps start to appear? asking for my cousin Bertha The soil feels hot. Not sure it can cool properly given how wet, er, dry it is. Snow will likely have a difficult time sticking this winter. If it actually snows, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble. The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble! Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: The soil feels hot. Not sure it can cool properly given how wet, er, dry it is. Snow will likely have a difficult time sticking this winter. If it actually snows, that is. By the end of Sept we could see flames on the ground..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/15/2019 at 1:06 PM, psuhoffman said: The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble! Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about. It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year. You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year. What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year? It overwhelmed because the Nino was a late developing, weak, diffuse, POS lol. That's one explanation. As for why the MJO was persistently strong/active, hard to say with certainty. I am no expert but warmer SSTs and enhanced tropical forcing/convection in specific areas of the tropics could act to "interfere" with/suppress activity in the ENSO region. You could also look upstairs over the tropics. QBO phase maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Pretty decent general read on the MJO from NOAA last winter- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/madden-julian-oscillation-has-been-active-so-far-winter-here-why-it-matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 7 hours ago, wxdude64 said: By the end of Sept we could see flames on the ground..... Welp, snow will never stick then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Welp, snow will never stick then. Meanwhile Alaska is melting ....... below ground perma frost is thawing quickly. More records set this month there in terms of high temps. And the waters to the West and SW are very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, frd said: Meanwhile Alaska is melting ....... below ground perma frost is thawing quickly. More records set this month there in terms of high temps. And the waters to the West and SW are very warm. Were you just watching NBC Nightly News? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 We will never see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 The entire Earth is on fire! lol Winter IS coming. It may not snow, but it will be winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 @frd You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: @frd You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html A relaxed flow would be nice...because my goodness last winter was a freeway! (with the SE ridge being a jerk in the road) We were hearing the term "progressive" all winter! (P.S. My snow weenism doesn't like analogs...even if they don't mean much. When I see articles like this list a bunch of years that didn't produce much, I go "ick!" But again, doesn't mean much this early, I suppose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: @frd You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html Yes, nice read ( his break down is very detailed ) and the QBO is favoring us, as others have said as well, including Mitchnick as well. Wonder if the winter comes on like a rubber band snapping back, with a sudden change to cold. Seems Ray implies at the end of his outlook a colder and drier scenario, but mentions above normal precip along the East Coast. If anything seems that the SH may provide a clue as well. And for us here in the NH as we get deeper into the cold season wonder about the effects on our PV from various factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Were you just watching NBC Nightly News? Lol I think it might be just as likely that NBC saw this https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think it might be just as likely that NBC saw this https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/arctic-permafrost-is-thawing-it-could-speed-up-climate-change-feature/ Lol Yeah I just asked about NBC because of the timing of his post (it was less than 20 mins after it aired) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Jb predicted above normal snow. Unfortunately his predictions are more predictable than they are reliable. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Adding nothing to the conversation except for a neat looking volcanic eruption. Don't know how these events effect winters over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Adding nothing to the conversation except for a neat looking volcanic eruption. Don't know how these events effect winters over here. From what little I learned a couple years ago about volcanos...the eruption has to be pretty substantial to impact anything globally (the larger the eruption the higher the higher the ash gets into the air). I believe the last one strong enough for that was Pinatubo in 1991 (I think that ended up kinda robbing us of the effects of a mod Niño according to someone on here). There have been, of course, other climate-impacting eruptions in modern history. The most impactful was the eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815...It led to infamous "year without a summer" (and Frankenstein and the poem "Darkness" was inspired as a result, lol). There's a high death toll associated with it that volcano due to the famine that caused by summer essentially getting cancelled the next year. That was probably the most impactful eruption in modern history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Jb predicted above normal snow. Unfortunately his predictions are more predictable than they are reliable. Sky is blue. Water is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 This advertised h5 look through winter looks heavily influenced by the TNH pattern. Another "issue" we had to deal with last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This advertised h5 look through winter looks heavily influenced by the TNH pattern. Another "issue" we had to deal with last winter. Man...we had to deal with so much atmospheric crap last winter, it's a wonder how we even averaged 15-18"+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man...we had to deal with so much atmospheric crap last winter, it's a wonder how we even averaged 15-18"+! Yeah....its a shame when the atmosphere screws up our weather..... Did ya miss me.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 54 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah....its a shame when the atmosphere screws up our weather..... Did ya miss me.... Thought your Avatar might melt if ya came out before December But a good maestro trolling draws ya out--how about that! Welcome back, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts