Is next winter looking like a disaster?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'd say recent developments in the Pacific are not good. 

[frd]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The QBO is heading in the right direction. 30 mb index dropped from 14.36 in June to 10.96 in July to now 9.97 for August. Hopefully it keeps moving towards neutral as we get deeper into fall.

eta- thanks to @mitchnick for pointing out a flaw in the data I originally posted. Fixed now.

Wow this is a surprise, if the progression continues you could make the case that this will help us in terms of high lattitude blocking, and at the least not be a negative. If anything, like you mentioned,  neutral is better than extreme positive.  And thanks to Mitchnick too . 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow this is a surprise, if the progression continues you could make the case that this will help us in terms of high lattitude blocking, and at the least not be a negative. If anything, like you mentioned,  neutral is better than extreme positive.  And thanks to Mitchnick too . 

Can't look at any one element in isolation, but the QBO trending from positive towards neutral(maybe even negative) heading into winter is better than it being super negative and trending less negative into fall and winter. That combined with a near solar minimum lends some support for a weaker winter PV/ -AO, which is also more conducive for development of a -NAO.

[CAPE]

As of now, it appears we are in the "C" category, which is second only to A. Ofc that trend needs to continue over the next few months.

[frd]

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Can't look at any one element in isolation, but the QBO trending from positive towards neutral(maybe even negative) heading into winter is better than it being super negative and trending less negative into fall and winter. That combined with a near solar minimum lends some support for a weaker winter PV/ -AO, which is also more conducive for development of a -NAO.

Simply mentioning this as speculation.... but some placed some blame on the QBO phase and trends last winter for the lack follow through from the SSWE.... eh take what you want from that. 

Also keep in mind that the strat may be more sensitive this year if the SH winter is any clue. Again simple speculation . 

 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

Simply mentioning this as speculation.... but some placed some blame on the QBO phase and trends last winter for the lack follow through from the SSWE.... eh take what you want from that. 

Also keep in mind that the strat may be more sensitive this year if the SH winter is any clue. Again simple speculation . 

 

QBO this time last year was strongly negative trending less negative, then went into positive territory through winter. That is regime B in the image above. It was absolutely out of phase from what we want ideally for a weak PV. Again no one index is the end all, but we didnt have it in our favor last winter(assuming the desired outcome is colder than average).

[ravensrule]

6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He messaged me. I assume he has been reading some of the threads. Hope he starts posting again.

Me too. I really miss his posts. Hopefully he comes back. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Me too. I really miss his posts. Hopefully he comes back. 

Well...if we behave ourselves better this year, perhaps more good posters like him might come back! Must be better this year.

[Prestige Worldwide]

oh my- epic torch

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

oh my- epic torch

I am not so sure I would 1 to 1.5 degrees above normal an epic torch. Now the cold anomalies showing up over Greenland and the West could be troublesome. The one in Greenland suggests a +NAO as normally temps would be above normal for a -NAO. And the anomalies in the west suggest a trough which normally results in ridging in the east. I do like seeing the greater +temp anomalies over the arctic and pole as that suggests higher heights there and a weakened PV and possible -AO. Would like to see how each month pans out though rather then just a mean of all three months to get a better idea of what we are looking at.

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

oh my- epic torch

Yeah, seasonal models did REALLY well last winter.  The last of my snowpile finally melted from that epic blocking we had in January and February.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I am not so sure I would 1 to 1.5 degrees above normal an epic torch. Now the cold anomalies showing up over Greenland and the West could be troublesome. The one in Greenland suggests a +NAO as normally temps would be above normal for a -NAO. And the anomalies in the west suggest a trough which normally results in ridging in the east. I do like seeing the greater +temp anomalies over the arctic and pole as that suggests higher heights there and a weakened PV and possible -AO. Would like to see how each month pans out though rather then just a mean of all three months to get a better idea of what we are looking at.

Exactly. Looking at a mean for the whole winter- and surface temps at that- makes it difficult to determine how the pattern sets up and evolves. Pretty useless IMO.

[Prestige Worldwide]

51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Exactly. Looking at a mean for the whole winter- and surface temps at that- makes it difficult to determine how the pattern sets up and evolves. Pretty useless IMO.

Exactly- I just posted for postings sake. It’s September- I don’t consider anything worthwhile right now. It’s just fun to share info that’s out there

[CAPE]

Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

Exactly- I just posted for postings sake. It’s September- I don’t consider anything worthwhile right now. It’s just fun to share info that’s out there

I know. Yes its all "for fun" at this point.

The only indices worth seriously monitoring at this juncture IMO are ENSO, PDO, and probably QBO.

[frd]

If the Euro weeklies can't get it right how can you trust seasonals , IMHO they are all useless.

However, with global warmth this could certainly be one option of many. At least JB can't spin this as a cold Eastern winter look because the warmth is so extensive. 

[showmethesnow]

9 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Exactly- I just posted for postings sake. It’s September- I don’t consider anything worthwhile right now. It’s just fun to share info that’s out there

And here I thought you were trolling the weenies. 

I enjoy seeing all the different things posted even the bad with the good. Helps give me a general feel of what to expect for winter besides just looking at the major indices. And that method works so well. Take last year for example, all the things out there were suggesting a blockbuster winter and we had a great... mediocre winter. 

[showmethesnow]

Not sure when they release the CanSips every month but I sort of expected it out by now. Wonder if they may be having issues again. Have been curious as to whether it would follow up on last months release with all the high heights over the arctic and pole (which would be a good thing). 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure when they release the CanSips every month but I sort of expected it out by now. Wonder if they may be having issues again. Have been curious as to whether it would follow up on last months release with all the high heights over the arctic and pole (which would be a good thing). 

Seems its always about a week late as I recall, at least before it is available on TT. I am also curious to see if the new edition bears any resemblance to the previous run.

I kind of like the way things look in the Pacific currently. ENSO is neutral but still leaning Nino with warmer SSTs further west. If that general look were to persist, it could work for us. PDO currently looks pretty good, ofc we have to see how it evolves over the next couple months.

[showmethesnow]

Was just informed that the trough that sets up in Alaska on the Euro seasonal for the fall retrogrades for the winter and we have ridging replacing it. This should allow for cold air delivery into the CONUS. But that's all i have at this time as far as the Euro.

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Seems its always about a week late as I recall, at least before it is available on TT. I am also curious to see if the new edition bears any resemblance to the previous run.

I kind of like the way things look in the Pacific currently. ENSO is neutral but still leaning Nino with warmer SSTs further west. If that general look were to persist, it could work for us. PDO currently looks pretty good, ofc we have to see how it evolves over the next couple months.

Besides what has been posted on here about the only thing I have looked at so far for the coming winter is the SST's in the PAC and that was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Will probably start looking into things in a week or two though. Will be one of the latest starts for me as far as that goes. Guess last year still is leaving a bitter taste in my mouth.

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was just informed that the trough that sets up in Alaska on the Euro seasonal for the fall retrogrades for the winter and we have ridging replacing it. This should allow for cold air delivery into the CONUS. But that's all i have at this time as far as the Euro.

I like the idea of a big EPO ridge this winter. Seeing it show up a lot on the seasonal/climate models, and there is at least weak support for it looking at the current Pacific SSTA. The CFS has been consistently advertising a big ridge over and north of AK, even though it vacillates with the look in the NA. The most recent run is a good example. Check out that Feb h5 look. Can't get much sweeter than that lol.

[CAPE]

New CanSIPS is out.

And its, well, possibly more orgasmic than the last edition lol. Wow.

@showmethesnow

 

[CAPE]

Here is Dec for an appetizer..

Probably completely unrealistic, but hey, its September. Might as well weenie out a bit. We need some 'feel good' heading into the heart of fall.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

New CanSIPS is out.

@showmethesnow

And its, well, possibly more orgasmic than the last edition lol. Wow.

Just started looking over it now. Quick glance and all I have to say is, 'Oh my'.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Just started looking over it now. Quick glance and all I have to say is, 'Oh my'.

Yeah that pretty much was my reaction.

CFS has been leaning that way too lately- esp the look in the eastern/N Pac and around AK. Seems to be "coming around" on more NA blocking though, esp mid to late winter.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that pretty much was my reaction.

CFS has been leaning that way too lately- esp the look in the eastern/N Pac and around AK. Seems to be "coming around" on more NA blocking though, esp mid to late winter.

Pretty much wall to wall winter (Nov-March). Jan-March has a particularly cold look (EPO-cross polar flow) though I don't think the anomalies give the look justice. Some form of a -NAO every month. Looks to be a weakened PV (-AO?). If that were to verify for the winter I don't think there would be any complaining on these boards. Well except for the usual suspects (JI, you out there?)  

[Maestrobjwa]

15 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

And here I thought you were trolling the weenies. 

I enjoy seeing all the different things posted even the bad with the good. Helps give me a general feel of what to expect for winter besides just looking at the major indices. And that method works so well. Take last year for example, all the things out there were suggesting a blockbuster winter and we had a great... mediocre winter. 

Ya know...maybe this is too simplistic, but...after last winter, it seems like we're better off relying on the history of the ENSO state we're in. Had we relyed on that and ig bored the rest, we could've predicted the 15"-18" inches we got, lol (didn't see any weak Niños that had much more than that...but I could've missed it) La Nada is the only state where the result really seems to be 50/50

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Pretty much wall to wall winter (Nov-March). Jan-March has a particularly cold look (EPO-cross polar flow) though I don't think the anomalies give the look justice. Some form of a -NAO every month. Looks to be a weakened PV (-AO?). If that were to verify for the winter I don't think there would be any complaining on these boards. Well except for the usual suspects (JI, you out there?)  

I think the -AO is the key, and statistically it usually is for colder than average/snowier winters here and also the odds of getting a legit -NAO to develop. Makes some sense given the QBO trends combined with the solar min (should correlate to a weaker PV). Also some support for a -EPO given the current SSTs in the Pac. The 'current' PDO look is subject to change though as we move further into Fall, much more so than the ENSO, which will likely be neutral for winter. Hopefully the atmosphere behaves more Ninoish. Overall though you have to like the early signs.

[showmethesnow]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya know...maybe this is too simplistic, but...after last winter, it seems like we're better off relying on the history of the ENSO state we're in. Had we relyed on that and ig bored the rest, we could've predicted the 15"-18" inches we got, lol (didn't see any weak Niños that had much more than that...but I could've missed it) La Nada is the only state where the result really seems to be 50/50q

Not going to go back and check at this time but I could have sworn we have seen several winters in the general DC/Balt region that have experienced 25-50% +winters during a weak nino. Could be wrong though. There is no denying that the ENSO is the probably the #1 indice to focus on but you just can't ignore the others because they quite often have a say as well.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not going to go back and check at this time but I could have sworn we have seen several winters in the general DC/Balt region that have experienced 25-50% +winters during a weak nino. Could be wrong though. There is no denying that the ENSO is the probably the #1 indice to focus on but you just can't ignore the others because they quite often have a say as well.

A moderate Nino is the sweet spot for the MA in general I believe. More specifically, a Modoki. 2009-10 being the obvious example. Weak Ninos can be utter fails here, and much better for NE.