PCT_ATC Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 9 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees. trying hard to follow here, but its nonsense gobbly gook to me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 On 9/10/2019 at 3:21 PM, showmethesnow said: Here's something you don't see everyday. A hurricane wedged between two very deep cutoffs (534 mb, 537 mb) blocked underneath some impressive height builds in Canada. Omen for this winter? I'm pretty sure I saw this satellite image in "the day after tomorrow" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Looks pretty darn promising, but seasonals are, well, seasonals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 On 9/11/2019 at 6:07 AM, PCT_ATC said: trying hard to follow here, but its nonsense gobbly gook to me He's a very dedicated troll who just strings words together to get a reaction. Been at it for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: He's a very dedicated troll who just strings words together to get a reaction. Been at it for years. I've heard different stories, one more serious than I had imagined. I'm not certain that he's trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: He's a very dedicated troll who just strings words together to get a reaction. Been at it for years. He isn’t trolling. It’s not intentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Nah, it's more of a sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Looks pretty darn promising, but seasonals are, well, seasonals. There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter. But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Hot and dry August into September always makes me daydream about 02-03. I don't mind if we stay warm and dry into October then bang!! SCIENCE!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!) That's not how it works. Last year the Nino developed way late, it was pretty diffuse, and the MJO was on steroids. There were other factors- the QBO was headed in the wrong direction, the EPO, the PDO phase/strength, etc. There are always multiple factors that combine to influence the ultimate outcome (of winter). In our region, we generally always want a Nino over a Nina. Increases the chances for -EPO/+PNA, i.e. ridging in favorable locations, encourages a more active southern stream, among other things. Exception might be a strong Nino vs. say a weak Nina, in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!) I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again. Eh, it is still better than getting a nina...I had focused more on the weak nino as the problem since many of the other weak ninos finished with similar snowfall totals at BWI (15"-18"). Could we say that weak ninos underperform more often because they tend to be less dominant and more susceptible to negative factors overall? (and how many 20"+ weak ninos do we have, I wonder...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 More to come...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 On 9/12/2019 at 12:03 PM, C.A.P.E. said: There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter. The warm pool near the date line as modeled supports this, so no surprise there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Rather quiet ......... not sure I believe the CM predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Dive continues 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Sep 2019 1013.56 1016.10 -28.88 -10.70 -8.55 12 Sep 2019 1014.46 1016.25 -24.42 -10.34 -8.18 11 Sep 2019 1015.25 1014.90 -11.70 -9.91 -7.91 10 Sep 2019 1014.70 1014.25 -11.11 -9.63 -7.72 9 Sep 2019 1013.50 1014.80 -21.51 -9.19 -7.49 8 Sep 2019 1013.95 1015.15 -20.92 -7.80 -7.03 7 Sep 2019 1014.10 1014.35 -15.27 -6.34 -6.71 6 Sep 2019 1014.09 1013.55 -10.58 -5.17 -6.55 5 Sep 2019 1013.81 1013.60 -12.54 -4.27 -6.55 4 Sep 2019 1013.73 1013.90 -14.79 -3.66 -6.54 3 Sep 2019 1013.36 1013.85 -16.70 -3.23 -6.43 2 Sep 2019 1012.96 1014.15 -20.86 -3.06 -6.33 1 Sep 2019 1013.31 1013.40 -14.32 -2.99 -6.29 31 Aug 2019 1013.01 1013.35 -11.90 -3.00 -6.32 30 Aug 2019 1012.61 1014.40 -20.70 -2.85 -6.22 29 Aug 2019 1014.44 1015.30 -15.05 -2.05 -6.07 28 Aug 2019 1015.17 1014.90 -8.19 -1.22 -6.10 27 Aug 2019 1015.16 1013.85 -1.88 -0.64 -6.12 26 Aug 2019 1014.85 1013.20 0.18 -0.61 -6.17 25 Aug 2019 1014.30 1013.55 -5.28 -0.40 -6.33 24 Aug 2019 1015.25 1014.80 -7.10 -0.03 -6.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Nice to see, regardless of outcome at this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Not a Winter blizzard pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not a Winter blizzard pattern Chuck, it's mid September dude. No one is expecting a winter blizzard pattern. But thanks for the notification! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 I think the Atlnatic SST index NAO index argues for a -NAO higher frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not a Winter blizzard pattern Agreed. Looks more like a Summer blizzard pattern IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 I wonder how it would be if people lived in Greenland? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html .. That's why.. oh, space weather was a +25% research and I stopped it for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Some cool info on the warm blob. The article is not hyping , but just bringing up some comparisons and why the warm blob may simply fizzle away. https://www.forbes.com/sites/allenelizabeth/2019/09/05/another-warm-blob-is-forming-in-the-pacific-ocean/#78dc8d9a14af Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Another dry winter for the West coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 I hate seasonal models but if you want a feeling this far out it looks pretty grim for snow in the Mid Atlantic. Seems the general atmospheric set up portrayed by the various models and super model blends look to favor a Western Winter and cold and snowy up in the Great Plains. Maybe the continued tendency for a warmer climate is making it harder and harder for winters to deliver below 40 North. A warm snow-less winter in these parts would not surprise me, nor would a complete failure of the models leading to a more traditional cold and snowier winter in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 A further look at the seasonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: A further look at the seasonal That’s a whole lot of red everywhere... I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a whole lot of red everywhere... I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1... Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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