Is next winter looking like a disaster?

[poolz1]

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

The blizzard of 83 was the first big storm that I remember. 7 years old and the snow seemed like it was up to my neck. Not in reality but that’s the way I remember it. After that storm I was hooked...snow was better when all you had was bob ryan and a noaa weather radio. You didn’t know the winter sucked until it was spring...

[showmethesnow]

8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals.  Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. 

I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow.

eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals.  Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. 

I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow.

eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

That one was forgettable here lol. I appreciated it for the historic nature, but the track was too far west and it turned to 40 degree rain after 7-8" of heavy wet snow. Dry slotted after that. What was left froze and left an iceberg for a day or so.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 8/13/2019 at 11:18 AM, showmethesnow said:

And here I thought you were going to Mehhhh... it. 

Don't remember that one at all. Looking at the snowfall maps it looks as if Owings Mills got maybe 8-10 inches which was probably somewhat exciting at the time but it wasn't near the slap in the face that 79 was. Funny what you remember though. Remember one year (sometime in the mid 70's) mother took me out to visit one of her friends in Randalstown. Had a snow squall roll through for maybe a half hour or so that dropped snowflakes easily the size of golf balls and laid down 4-5 inches of extremely fluffy snow. For years afterward when they mentioned the chance of squalls I would get excited. Took me a while to realize that what I had experienced was actually pretty rare down in the low lands. 

Did I forget to mention that it was an early B-Day present? 

Nope, I love legit winter storms especially ones that surprise everyone. Just like 1/25/2000...it's a shame that with better forecasting accuracy these are quickly becoming a thing of the past

[showmethesnow]

12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nope, I love legit winter storms especially ones that surprise everyone. Just like 1/25/2000...it's a shame that with better forecasting accuracy these are quickly becoming a thing of the past

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet...

Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history. 

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet...

Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history. 

I think with the advances of short term guidance I really think the days of a big storm totally sneaking up on us are just about over.  Just IMO, the 2000 and 2011 events were back before we really made the leap on the HRRR, etc.

[Steve25]

It's funny. We push for advancements so we can have a better idea of what's coming, but it takes away the element of surprise, at least major surprises, which can be fun in their own right. Obviously it's better for society as a whole because it's better to be as prepared as you can be for potentially dangerous conditions. I guess the bright side for people like us is that no matter how advanced forecasting becomes, weather will always have it's surprises. I do agree though that the days of predicting nothing and then getting hammered with a big storm are well behind us. 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 hours ago, Steve25 said:

It's funny. We push for advancements so we can have a better idea of what's coming, but it takes away the element of surprise, at least major surprises, which can be fun in their own right. Obviously it's better for society as a whole because it's better to be as prepared as you can be for potentially dangerous conditions. I guess the bright side for people like us is that no matter how advanced forecasting becomes, weather will always have it's surprises. I do agree though that the days of predicting nothing and then getting hammered with a big storm are well behind us. 

Yup there's nothing better than going to bed expecting nothing and then you get awoken by that early brightening of the skies and looking out to see everything covered with a surprise 5" of snow.  Then you go downstairs, flip on the NOAA Weather Radio and hear those three amazing words "Winter Storm Warning".  You get excited as the message reads out on the automated voice with words like "through late tonight" and "drifts exceeding two feet".  Those are amazing events.

[Ger]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup there's nothing better than going to bed expecting nothing and then you get awoken by that early brightening of the skies and looking out to see everything covered with a surprise 5" of snow.  Then you go downstairs, flip on the NOAA Weather Radio and hear those three amazing words "Winter Storm Warning".  You get excited as the message reads out on the automated voice with words like "through late tonight" and "drifts exceeding two feet".  Those are amazing events.

when did that happen?

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Ger said:

when did that happen?

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

Jan 25 2000?

[Maestrobjwa]

On 8/13/2019 at 12:37 PM, Steve25 said:

Well, historically, my area has only had 3 periods where we went more than 3 full winters without a 10+ inch snow month. 1948/49-1952/53, 1967/68-1970/71, and 1972/73-1976/77. That's over 136 years of record keeping. So I'd say odds are in favor of at least one decent month for snow this winter. 

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

History does have credence. Except what history shows is that going into every winter the odds of having above average snowfall in our area is the same (about 30%) regardless of what happened the year before.   The odds of stringing too many below avg years together us low of course simply because of coumpounding odds each year (like the odds of getting 10 heads in a row tossing a coin). But no matter how many heads in a row you’ve had the odds on that next toss are still 50/50. History shows it’s the same principle for snowfall here. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

Also 2017-18 was actually a snowy winter all around us. We were unlucky in a very meso scale way with a lot of close misses. From a pattern sense I don’t think counting that as a bad winter would be accurate.  And if that hadn’t had as much bad luck we would have had above avg snow 4 of the last 6 years.  Even so we have had above avg 3 of the last 6. And 2 of the other 3 were very close to avg not duds at all by our standards.  Considering we only typically get above avg snow 30% of the time and we get a total crap dud winter about 30% the we’re due index isn’t as good as you think imo.  If anything we are due for a total crap dud virtually snowless winter. 

Luckily as I pointed out above the we’re due index is nonsense so this is irrelevant...just saying if it were a real thing we still aren’t close to being due a snowy winter based on historical trends and averages.

 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

Lol yea!  I could still see a major positive bust happen if we were ever on the back edge of a miller b that ended up bombing just west of projections. Those sharp back edges where snowfall can go from nothing to a foot very quickly is still hard to pin down by nwp. It’s still possible (just unlikely) for us to be predicted just outside that sharp cutoff and see it end up west of us kind of like a reverse December 2000 or 2010. Unfortunately those setups shift east at the last minute way more often than west but I think it’s still possible. That’s about the only scenario where I could see nwp totally missing a big time snowfall from very close range anymore. 

[frd]

The decline continues 

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here. 

[Amped]

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

August will be rockin

[frd]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here. 

There are some indications via the UkMet and ECM long range seasonal SST forecasts that there may be an enhanced Pacific jet similiar to what we had last year that always either prevented , or shortned the duration of any West Coast or NW Canadian ridging.  The High pressure location in the Pac near Hawaii also messed up things last year by encouraging the WAR.   

Without something to slow or buckle the jet combined with a AO and NAO blocking (  a - AO being the first desired if significant,  followed by the

- NAO we will not have a good winter at all IMHO ) 

I take some relief that the seasonal models do not show any significant - NAO at this time because last year up to the very end they forecasted it and never materialized;  so maybe this year without it portrayed  in the long range seasonal guidence it will be a good thing and they will be wrong and we do get periods of blocking to help us here in the Mid Atlantic .

For the record I rather have an awesone Pac and I dont care what the Atlantic side does .  

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, frd said:

The decline continues 

 

So now....the last time, the low solar in 2008 did nothing for the 2008-09 winter, but yet it helped make the 2009-10 epic? So I'm wondering if right now if we are on the first "year" of the minimum (i.e. 2008) or the second year (i.e. 2009) that had a good winter on the back half of the minimum (and looking back in history, it seems that, with the minimums that surrounded a great winter, the great winter would usually happen on the first part of the minimum or the second (if that makes any sense, lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Also 2017-18 was actually a snowy winter all around us. We were unlucky in a very meso scale way with a lot of close misses. 

Now I assumed that close misses like that happen in most of our La ninas...Isn't the 2017-18 scenario one of the main causes of La nina suckage throughout our history? (Due to things in the NS being interruptions and such?)

[Eskimo Joe]

23 hours ago, Ger said:

when did that happen?

12/8/2013 from Harpers Ferry, WV to Philly.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12/8/2013 from Harpers Ferry, WV to Philly.

 

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

Yeah, the Philly game has more snow, but Vikes-Ravens had the insanity.  Just sad that Baltimore had the ball last.

[Prestige Worldwide]

Another long range winter model-  conclusion:  too early to tell anything. But here it is

 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Another long range winter model-  conclusion:  too early to tell anything. But here it is

 

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

 

[wxdude64]

On 8/16/2019 at 6:42 PM, Rhino16 said:

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

Same here. Getting ready for work calling for 3-5, they (NWS) upped it on forecast to 6-10 as I left the house at 7 am. Got home that night (after an hour + drive that normally is 10 minutes) after 8 pm to 20.5"!

[Rhino16]

57 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

 

TT appears to be updated, the messed up one would be obvious.