Is next winter looking like a disaster?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Maybe 02 - 03 

During the 1960's there were some good winters with blocking , but not sure about the Pac during that decade. 

Oh yeah--looking at the totals, the 60s must've been awesome! (And yet the 70s...prior to 78...probably sucked! Now I wonder what caused that long below average drought?) And how far in advance can the pac jet be predicted?

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah--looking at the totals, the 60s must've been awesome! (And yet the 70s...prior to 78...probably sucked! Now I wonder what caused that long below average drought?) And how far in advance can the pac jet be predicted?

Lived through the 70's in Harford county and then Owings Mills. I didn't realize then how bad it was because I had no previous experience to compare it to so I thought it was the norm. The blizzard of 79 was a wakeup call to say the least.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Lived through the 70's in Harford county and then Owings Mills. I didn't realize then how bad it was because I had no previous experience to compare it to so I thought it was the norm. The blizzard of 79 was a wakeup call to say the least.

What was so neat about the blizzard of 79?

[frd]

Good thread in this link 

 

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What was so neat about the blizzard of 79?

Um, Presidents Day Blizzard?  18.7" at DCA?  Caught the region off guard?

[frd]

Good points here by Todd  

More

I didn't say I don't think we'll have blocking this winter, just that the summer-winter correlation is non-existent

 

 

 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Um, Presidents Day Blizzard?  18.7" at DCA?  Caught the region off guard?

Some of the many cars that found themselves almost totally buried by the Blizzard of ‘79. (Baltimore Sun files, Feb. 20, 1979)

 

 

They were only calling for 8 inches. We ended up with nearly two feet.

The snow began falling the night of Feb. 18, 1979, and while it was coming down steadily, forecasters didn’t seem unduly alarmed. The National Weather Service predicted 6 inches of snow in Baltimore, up to 8 inches south and west of the Beltway. Brutal, to be sure, but not spectacularly bad.

In fact, the bigger concern was the distressingly frigid temperatures. The mercury dipped to 3 degrees at BWI Airport on the 18th, at least the sixth February day on which a record low was set. The low temperature was a balmy 7 degrees in the city, matching a low that had been set in 1903.

On man, was it cold. But at least the snow seemed destined to stay within reason.

Hah!

 

“22-inch snowstorm buries area” read the headline in the Feb. 20 Baltimore Sun. Schools and businesses were closed, some 80 percent of the city’s bus fleet was stuck on side streets or in snow drifts. Mayor William Donald Schaefer declared a 7 p.m. curfew and the national guard was called in to help maintain order. 

For the first time “in anyone’s memory,” the Evening Sun, which had been founded in 1910, was not published on Feb. 19.

At the state police barracks in Waterloo, troopers pooled their money to buy insulin and needles for a family trapped in their Anne Arundel County home and “commandeered” a snowplow to help deliver the supplies.

“You must be crazy to be out here,” one city man shouted as he tried making his way through the snow.

No one disagreed.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

On 8/11/2019 at 12:44 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...does "decent nina" even belong in our vocabulary? Lol When other than 1995-96 did that ever happen? I was under the impression that Nina was just plain bad regardless of type!

64/65 and 99/2000 were decent. 17/18 could have been better. Above normal snowfall was all around us we just got unlucky...and still finished with respectable totals most places. Of course 95/96. But when I say decent I mean 15-20” in the cities. 96 was the only blockbuster Niña so if we do go Niña better toss any dreams of a good winter and just hope it ends up a decent one and not a total dud. 

[Jebman]

Washington DC has been doing very well with La Nada winters, particularly earlier this decade.

You will do so this upcoming winter as well. Expect well above normal snow in the Mid Atlantic, along with very cold temps.

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What was so neat about the blizzard of 79?

What was so neat about PD1? I know you probably jest but just about everything. My favorite all time storm with only the two storms in 09/10 dumping close to 4 feet of snow in such a short period of time coming close (and that is mostly noteworthy just for the sheer amount of snow that was dumped).

Lived in Owings Mills at the time and the last forecast I heard (probably Bob Turk at 5pm) had us getting Flurries to maybe an inch for our area at best. Woke up to total whiteout conditions, winds howling and probably 6+ inches or so of snow on the ground. Have never seen such rates (upwards of 5" an hour per articles), sustained to boot, ever since. Probably have seen higher gusts in a winter storm at some point but for sustainability of high winds I don't think any other storm I have experienced comes close. Drifting was the best I have ever experienced. In fact we had a steep hill in the neighborhood that we were jumping off of into a drift that was probably 10+ feet. The frequency of lightning during a time far surpassed anything I have ever experienced in a snow storm. 2 feet of snow became my benchmark afterwards as we just missed it by an inch or two. And the fact that schools were closed for the whole week was a novel experience. Also consider that this was my first experience with a significant winter storm after living my childhood through the snow drought we saw during the 70's. So for overall personal experience nothing comes close in my book.

eta: After reading FDR's article I realized I forgot to mention the cold. Probably the coldest storm I have ever experienced and combined with the winds it made for a somewhat painful experience when walking out in it. 

 

 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What was so neat about PD1? I know you probably jest but just about everything. My favorite all time storm with only the two storms in 09/10 dumping close to 4 feet of snow in such a short period of time coming close (and that is mostly noteworthy just for the sheer amount of snow that was dumped).

Lived in Owings Mills at the time and the last forecast I heard (probably Bob Turk at 5pm) had us getting Flurries to maybe an inch for our area at best. Woke up to total whiteout conditions, winds howling and probably 6+ inches or so of snow on the ground. Have never seen such rates (upwards of 5" an hour per articles), sustained to boot, ever since. Probably have seen higher gusts in a winter storm at some point but for sustainability of high winds I don't think any other storm I have experienced comes close. Drifting was the best I have ever experienced. In fact we had a steep hill in the neighborhood that we were jumping off of into a drift that was probably 10+ feet. The frequency of lightning during a time far surpassed anything I have ever experienced in a snow storm. 2 feet of snow became my benchmark afterwards as we just missed it by an inch or two. And the fact that schools were closed for the whole week was a novel experience. Also consider that this was my first experience with a significant winter storm after living my childhood through the snow drought we saw during the 70's. So for overall personal experience nothing comes close in my book.

eta: After reading FDR's article I realized I forgot to mention the cold. Probably the coldest storm I have ever experienced and combined with the winds it made for a somewhat painful experience when walking out in it. 

 

 

Yeah...but what's so neat about it?

[nw baltimore wx]

My favorite storm too.

[CAPE]

I was a kid in Carroll county at the time. That storm probably locked me in as a weather geek for life. Looking at the map, kinda got fringed lol. I recall the total being right around 20". Areas around the bay got clobbered.

[CAPE]

Satellite image for Blizz of 79. Looks a lot like BOMB CYCLONE from 2018 that hit the immediate coast. Main difference is the track. IIRC, models back then had it tracking further offshore until the end, thus is was a surprise for many and forecasters were scrambling.

[Sparky]

On 8/12/2019 at 6:35 AM, showmethesnow said:

Lived through the 70's in Harford county and then Owings Mills. I didn't realize then how bad it was because I had no previous experience to compare it to so I thought it was the norm. The blizzard of 79 was a wakeup call to say the least.

Do you remember the Feb. '78 storm (the one that really clobbered southern New England)?  For me that was the snow drought breaker storm.   It was pretty cool how the wrap around bands from that primarily new england storm reached back into parts of northern and northeastern MD and Delaware including Baltimore.   Drifting was monumental with the dry fluffy snow being whipped by easily 50mph gusts for a good part of the Monday.  It dropped a quick foot++ of snow on Baltimore, more as you went northeast, and with a rather sharp cutoff to the southwest which pretty much crapped out by the time you reached DC leaving them mostly high and dry.  I think MattieG would have loved that one in particular.

[JakkelWx]

Pepperidge farm remembers when you would forecast only a few inches but get two feet instead and not the other way around

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What was so neat about PD1? I know you probably jest but just about everything. My favorite all time storm with only the two storms in 09/10 dumping close to 4 feet of snow in such a short period of time coming close (and that is mostly noteworthy just for the sheer amount of snow that was dumped).

Lived in Owings Mills at the time and the last forecast I heard (probably Bob Turk at 5pm) had us getting Flurries to maybe an inch for our area at best. Woke up to total whiteout conditions, winds howling and probably 6+ inches or so of snow on the ground. Have never seen such rates (upwards of 5" an hour per articles), sustained to boot, ever since. Probably have seen higher gusts in a winter storm at some point but for sustainability of high winds I don't think any other storm I have experienced comes close. Drifting was the best I have ever experienced. In fact we had a steep hill in the neighborhood that we were jumping off of into a drift that was probably 10+ feet. The frequency of lightning during a time far surpassed anything I have ever experienced in a snow storm. 2 feet of snow became my benchmark afterwards as we just missed it by an inch or two. And the fact that schools were closed for the whole week was a novel experience. Also consider that this was my first experience with a significant winter storm after living my childhood through the snow drought we saw during the 70's. So for overall personal experience nothing comes close in my book.

eta: After reading FDR's article I realized I forgot to mention the cold. Probably the coldest storm I have ever experienced and combined with the winds it made for a somewhat painful experience when walking out in it. 

 

 

Damn I was legit curious.  I'm not well versed on storms pre 1987.  Sounds like the kind of storm I'd love!

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Damn I was legit curious.  I'm not well versed on storms pre 1987.  Sounds like the kind of storm I'd love!

And here I thought you were going to Mehhhh... it. 

29 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Do you remember the Feb. '78 storm (the one that really clobbered southern New England)?  For me that was the snow drought breaker storm.   It was pretty cool how the wrap around bands from that primarily new england storm reached back into parts of northern and northeastern MD and Delaware including Baltimore.   Drifting was monumental with the dry fluffy snow being whipped by easily 50mph gusts for a good part of the Monday.  It dropped a quick foot++ of snow on Baltimore, more as you went northeast, and with a rather sharp cutoff to the southwest which pretty much crapped out by the time you reached DC leaving them mostly high and dry.  I think MattieG would have loved that one in particular.

Don't remember that one at all. Looking at the snowfall maps it looks as if Owings Mills got maybe 8-10 inches which was probably somewhat exciting at the time but it wasn't near the slap in the face that 79 was. Funny what you remember though. Remember one year (sometime in the mid 70's) mother took me out to visit one of her friends in Randalstown. Had a snow squall roll through for maybe a half hour or so that dropped snowflakes easily the size of golf balls and laid down 4-5 inches of extremely fluffy snow. For years afterward when they mentioned the chance of squalls I would get excited. Took me a while to realize that what I had experienced was actually pretty rare down in the low lands. 

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...but what's so neat about it?

Did I forget to mention that it was an early B-Day present? 

[Scraff]

What’s so neat about this thread? 

 

[Steve25]

There's nothing scientific about this, but my area hasn't had a major snowstorm since January of 2016, I'd say I'm due. Had 30 inches of snow in January of 2016. My highest month since than was 7.8 inches in January of 2019. That's a long time without a double digit snow month. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

There's nothing scientific about this, but my area hasn't had a major snowstorm since January of 2016, I'd say I'm due. Had 30 inches of snow in January of 2016. My highest month since than was 7.8 inches in January of 2019. That's a long time without a double digit snow month. 

Not historically. Only in the last decade or two.

[Steve25]

Well, historically, my area has only had 3 periods where we went more than 3 full winters without a 10+ inch snow month. 1948/49-1952/53, 1967/68-1970/71, and 1972/73-1976/77. That's over 136 years of record keeping. So I'd say odds are in favor of at least one decent month for snow this winter. 

[Sparky]

Photos of newspapers out of Baltimore of the Feb 78 blizzard (yes, there were blizzard conditions in Baltimore and the surrounding suburbs)

 

 

 

 

[southmdwatcher]

PD1 was and is, to this day my all time favorite storm as well, living here in southern MD. Schools closed for a week, snow packed engine blocks, drifts up to the 2nd story and total whiteout conditions for hours.

[CAPE]

I don't recall the 78 storm at all. Again I was in Carroll county, and that area was on the western fringe of heavy snow, so a 6-8" storm with some wind would not stand out as much in memory as a storm like the Blizzard of 1979.

[CAPE]

Eastern areas got destroyed. Wow. I knew it was a big NE storm, but did not realize there was such a high impact for the coastal plain down this way.

[showmethesnow]

26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Eastern areas got destroyed. Wow. I knew it was a big NE storm, but did not realize there was such a high impact for the coastal plain down this way.

Pulled out my Kocin book to look at this storm to see if it brought back any memories. Nah, nothing. Did notice on their snowfall map that there were some notable differences in snowfall (heavy to substantially lighter) just in short distances down around the bay and up through Balt and Carroll counties. One report over in Carroll has 7 inches and another just over to Mappyland shows 17". Have a feeling we may both have been on the losing side on the battle between the heavier and lighter snows. Had another storm that year in January of that year that may have actually dumped more snow on us then this one.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Pulled out my Kocin book to look at this storm to see if it brought back any memories. Nah, nothing. Did notice on their snowfall map that there were some notable differences in snowfall (heavy to substantially lighter) just in short distances down around the bay and up through Balt and Carroll counties. One report over in Carroll has 7 inches and another just over to Mappyland shows 17". Have a feeling we may both have been on the losing side on the battle between the heavier and lighter snows. Had another storm that year in January of that year that may have actually dumped more snow on us then this one.

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

[frd]

50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Eastern areas got destroyed. Wow. I knew it was a big NE storm, but did not realize there was such a high impact for the coastal plain down this way.

 

I remember like yesterday the great WPVI tv 6  weatherman Jim O'Brien talking about this event ..... was a biggie indeed  , not sure if this was one that stalled and or did a looped , but the satelite images were classic even for way back then. 

 

 

 

[Sparky]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I remember like yesterday the great WPVI tv 6  weatherman Jim O'Brien talking about this event ..... was a biggie indeed  , not sure if this was one that stalled and or did a looped , but the satelite images were classic even for way back then. 

 

 

 

It did some of both.  Looped south of Long Island  and stalled for a while.