Ji Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 just peaked at the enso models and it looks like neutral to La Nina? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 -NAO will surely come positive nao by thanksgiving and will last until March 21st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 We've been getting some hopeful -NAO's. Not the same pattern as 17-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 ‘95-‘96 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 This thread title is like clik bait for Mid Atlantic forum. (I knew I shouldn't have looked. ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 Last 2 weak Nina winters(16-17, 17-18) had the big early January beach snowstorms. Let's do that again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 We'll probably have ENSO Neutral conditions but +PNA's are not unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 22 hours ago, Ji said: just peaked at the enso models and it looks like neutral to La Nina? Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 It's probably going to be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Shut up, Ji. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Next winter = this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Snowfall contest should be fun- can I put some of you down for a shutout ahead of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 This place gets worse and worse every year, and sh*tlords like Ji don't help matters at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mattie g said: This place gets worse and worse every year, and sh*tlords like Ji don't help matters at all. Maybe this will mean we won't have to hear Ji complain in every winter thread... well, one can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 You will love this.. Cold Pool. Winter NAO index is like -1.2. (SD is 0.55) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 -QBO/El Nino is ideal. Looks like we'll switch in November. lol https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Which will we have more of? 90 degree days or inches of snow. I think I know the answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 5:18 PM, WVclimo said: ‘95-‘96 redux LOL, I like your thinking. Sure, let us have another early Jan 96 redo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Which will we have more of? 90 100degree days or inches of snow. I think I know the answer. Still know the answer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 So apparently, global warming has now affected Ji...this is remarkably early even for him to cancel winter!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Short answer is yes. More like non-existent aside from sun angle changes. Although the aggressive warming near AK has caught my attention. It could throw a wrench into my prediction. I mean look at that insanity. There's like a 500,000 sq mile area of 7 C+ ocean anomalies. We are profoundly f***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. Want snow ? - you have to wait till March . However, maybe this October we get another Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Just now, frd said: This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. Want snow ? - you have to wait till March . However, maybe this October we get another Hazel. It looks like they are using +NAO repetition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It looks like they are using +NAO repetition. Posted only for entertainment value. Anything can happen, and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually, I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively . Also, IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo. Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 On 7/18/2019 at 1:17 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: -QBO/El Nino is ideal. Looks like we'll switch in November. lol https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ? If so, no guarantee of a change. Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall. Seems to be more at play here. So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome. I rather have a +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ? If so, no guarantee of a change. Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall. Seems to be more at play here. So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome. I rather have a +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. The current solar cycle should be at or close to minimum heading into winter, so there's that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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