mattie g Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: My daughter fell asleep during the fireworks last night (edit-Thursday, time gets away from me). She is the true “sleep through a freight train” kid. Other faults, but at least we got that going for us. Our younger one will generally sleep through noise, but won’t go down while things are happening. Tonight was a different story though. Annoyed that we just missed on a ton of good stuff this evening. Even the little tail-end cell that popped up as the big one rolled across the Potomac missed us by a couple miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line. Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction. if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR. Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night. Check out the 00z NAM... pretty much does the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Check out the 00z NAM... pretty much does the same 00z GFS has same idea... but a lil further to the NE and a lil less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Been doing well here: July 2: 0.7 July 4: 0.8 July 6: 0.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 The cluster of storms SE of Pittsburgh might be the kick for today's activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 DCA is running only 1.5” of precip behind last year. Of course, July is when last year started going supernova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: DCA is running only 1.5” of precip behind last year. Of course, July is when last year started going supernova. Wonder if this year follows the same pattern, or whether we make a change going forward to a hotter regime and drier. drier = hotter Some models indicate mid month a supportive pattern of hotter weather. Yet, so far at least, even a dry periods have reversed going back to wet. Some have missed the rainfall but certainly it has been more wet than not. Summer blocking supports heat further into the season so whether the current blocking continues might have a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=flash flood watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-503>506-VAZ031-050>057-501-502- 505-506-WVZ052-053-080000- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0008.190707T2200Z-190708T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Clarke-Orange- Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Berryville, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 1156 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Loudoun. In panhandle West Virginia, Berkeley and Jefferson. * From 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight * Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Torrential rainfall may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches in a short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of small streams and other poor drainage urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Tons of whiffs for me yesterday. I seem to get more rain on days they call for less rain or no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 A lot of stationary cells firing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: A lot of stationary cells firing Looks like another day of winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nams are pretty bullish for central Md late tonight and tomorrow morning. A lot of 2-4" amounts . 3k has a nice positioned 1008 mini low in extreme southern Md tomorrow around 10z - 12z .Nice convection north and west of it HRRR is kinda uppity with rain too. My garden could use it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Slow movers over CMD starting to expand and merge with that complex in PA drifting SE. Hoping that convergence drifts west. Somebody is going to soaked... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Hrrr is definitely looking better for late tonight. I just applied some calcium rich top dressing on my tomato, cucumber, zucchini and squash plants. I hope this soaker takes shape. My veggies will love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 I couldn't take it anymore. My yard has missed every storm in every possible direction, failing in every possible way over the last week. That split/collapse last night with a solid line on my doorstep(and a warning) was pathetic and the last straw. Not a drop. I had to get away and forget about my dried out, burning yard. I am in Vermont now and working my way to NH. Absolutely gorgeous here. I will be at Mt Washington on Wed probably. Looks like mid 50s and ofc, very windy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 NW Carroll and Adam's County getting a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sometimes we just have to throw up our hands and chase excitement elsewhere. Safe travels. We both know that story, and have had some great times chasing elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 I could so live up here. So many great and unique quaint towns. In Manchester currently. Heading to Killington tomorrow and then really looking forward to Woodstock. Staying there tomorrow night. Then off to NH. 50-50 whether I do auto road or the cog. The cog is so unique, but pricey.. but then I love an adventurous mountain drive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 Radar is unimpressive. Latest discussion from sterling isn’t exciting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 FLaSh FlOOd WaTcH!!!!1!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 HRRR has been bouncing around per usual in these weakly forced situations. Last two runs are quite lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 246 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2019 0244 AM FLOOD KEARNEYSVILLE 39.39N 77.89W 07/08/2019 JEFFERSON COUNTY WV POLICE REPORTED TO 911 CENTER THAT 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER IS COVERING MULTIPLE ROADS IN THE KEARNEYSVILE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 So much for getting missed by storms. 2.84" of rain here overnight has flooded low-lying areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 PWSs in the Frederick area are 3-5”. That cell means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 You can see via radar the smaller showers being ingested into the big cell. 0.05” for the CoCoRaHS report. Trying to coax that monster down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 1.57 inches of rain in 14 minutes under 60dBZ returns in Clarksburg before I had to hop in the car to head to work. And still dumping… (edited to fit the return rate) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: You can see via radar the smaller showers being ingested into the big cell. 0.05” for the CoCoRaHS report. Trying to coax that monster down this way. If MBY doesn't get even 0.50" or so, then this is a major bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 57 and sunny here in Vermont. Perfect. It still looks like less than a tenth of an inch has fallen over the past 8 days at home lol. Cant wait to return my scorched brown yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 3.5" since thursday. pouring this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 8, 2019 Share Posted July 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: If MBY doesn't get even 0.50" or so, then this is a major bust. i have dust clouds due to no rain the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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