SnowtoRain Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Any verification of a tornado in the warned cell over Kent Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Heavy rain incoming this evening? https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=553&yr=2019 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Areas affected...Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 062200Z - 070300Z SUMMARY...Bands of showers and thunderstorms will focus across the Mid-Atlantic region over the next few hours, with impacts expected for the Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. metropolitan areas and adjacent suburbs involving the I-95 corridor. Flash flooding is likely, and especially around the urban centers. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows multiple bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing southeast across southwest and central PA out ahead of a cold front. Meanwhile, separate smaller clusters of convection are seen over portions of southeast PA. The activity ahead of the cold front is encountering a very moist and moderately unstable airmass that is characterized by PWATs of 1.75 to 2 inches, and MLCAPE values of 1500+ j/kg. This very favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with diffluent flow aloft around the south side of a flat upper trough advancing across the Northeast. However, the convection impacting areas of southeast PA is largely attributed to locally enhanced surface convergence around the west side of a convectively induced cold pool and associated outflow boundary. This boundary extends from central NJ southwest across the western suburbs of the Philadelphia metropolitan area and down to near the Baltimore metropolitan area. The airmass from central and northeast MD up across southeast PA is very unstable and extremely moist with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s, and overall PWATs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. The latest visible satellite imagery has been showing an axis of agitated CU persisting near this boundary and certainly taking advantage of very strong thermodynamics. Over the next few hours, the more organized convective line dropping southeast across southwest and central PA will encounter this strong instability and extremely moist environment closer in to the I-95 corridor and the adjacent western suburbs of Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. This coupled with the aforementioned outflow boundary/cold pool situation will likely allow for numerous clusters of very heavy showers and thunderstorms to impact a large area of eastern and southeast PA, down to areas of northeast and central MD going in closer to 00Z, with development also possible across northern VA and around the Washington D.C. metropolitan area. In fact, the low-level wind field has been slowly backing over the last few hours along the I-95 corridor and east of the Blue Ridge, which is not only pooling stronger thermodynamics across the region, but also facilitating greater surface convergence downstream of the cold front as the leeside trough refocuses farther back to the west and closer to the Blue Ridge. The latest hires model suite of guidance including the HRRR favor as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain locally through mid evening, of which a large amount of that will be capable of falling in just an hour or two. Flash flooding will be likely as a result, with the threat enhanced especially across the urbanized I-95 corridor and adjacent suburbia. Orrison ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 88/79, so close to that 80 DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Bring it on @yoda. Hope it makes it here. Seems like latest hrrr and NAM dissipate it before it gets to us mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 This is a heckuva loud storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 F the storms these last few days. Grrrrrrr... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: F the storms these last few days. Grrrrrrr... 0.04” here. 1.5”+ in parts of Mclean and Arlington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Serious storm here in Brookland. Def worst of the year with gusts that had to be approaching 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 The storm cluster moving SE into the Northern Chessy Bay look to be getting stronger. Forming a line at this time at the leading edge. Boaters beware ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 M66 in adams morgan...legit little cell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Thunder here from a small cell that popped just to my south. No rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 The line moving down from Frederick looks intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Cecil county line I assume your talking about...looks decent Yes, that is correct. But, the latest radar look seems to indicate the line is fading a bit. Still should get some rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 I hope this fatty dropping through central MD doesn't weaken from the rain cooled air left behind from the first storms that missed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 823 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ009-015>017-PAZ070-071-102-104>106-070115- New Castle-Queen Anne`s-Cecil-Kent-Salem-Mercer-Hunterdon-Gloucester-Lower Bucks-Eastern Montgomery-Philadelphia-Upper Bucks-Delaware-Eastern Chester- 823 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NEW CASTLE...NORTH CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE`S...KENT...EASTERN CECIL...NORTHWESTERN MERCER... NORTHWESTERN SALEM...SOUTH CENTRAL HUNTERDON...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...CENTRAL BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 822 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Tinicum to Lima to near Betterton. Movement was south at 20 mph. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Elkton, Norristown, Chester, Lansdale, West Norriton, East Norriton, Pennsville, Yeadon, Doylestown, Byram, Carneys Point, Conshohocken, Hatboro, Folcroft and Ambler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 45 minutes ago, frd said: The storm cluster moving SE into the Northern Chessy Bay look to be getting stronger. Forming a line at this time at the leading edge. Boaters beware ! Winds jumped from 5mph to 31 mph in approximately 90 seconds. Of course this was probably 7 minutes after watching a pontoon boat w/ over five people on it, bugging out of the creek headed for the river... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Well, the clouds sure looked cool rolling in, but the line really fizzled here and was a dissapointment, not even much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Strong storm moving through Pasadena. High winds and very heavy rain. Constant Thunder + Lightning. Power went out for a few minutes (rare for that to happen). Humidity was awful this evening during my walk before the storm moved in. Drenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Well it did mostly collapse as it got to the cities and suburbs. Just under a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Pouring here... nice few rumbles and lightning strikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: F the storms these last few days. Grrrrrrr... You should be getting a nice hit right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: 0.04” here. 1.5”+ in parts of Mclean and Arlington. Same for you, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Well it did mostly collapse as it got to the cities and suburbs. Just under a tenth. More energetic down here where we didn’t get hit earlier. Still only 0.27” on the day, but I’ll take any and all rain in July/Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Same for you, no? 4”/hr rain rate, but it doesn’t add up when it only lasts a minute or two. Lightning show is good. No wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 4”/hr rain rate, but it doesn’t add up when it only lasts a minute or two. Lightning show is good. No wind. Only a few minutes? Interesting... been pouring here for about 15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: F the storms these last few days. Grrrrrrr... And about a minute of rain followed by maybe another 30 seconds. But the kids certainly heard the thunder because wife and I are both in different rooms helping them get back to sleep. Argh!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 4”/hr rain rate, but it doesn’t add up when it only lasts a minute or two. Lightning show is good. No wind. Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line. Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction. if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR. Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, yoda said: You should be getting a nice hit right now Nope. Got mostly split. But of course the line consolidated just as it passed by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: And about a minute of rain followed by maybe another 30 seconds. But the kids certainly heard the thunder because wife and I are both in different rooms helping them get back to sleep. Argh!!!! My daughter fell asleep during the fireworks last night (edit-Thursday, time gets away from me). She is the true “sleep through a freight train” kid. Other faults, but at least we got that going for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Yeah, you got the fatter part of the line. Looks like a swath of 0.5”+ between Mattie and I, pointed in your direction. if you want some model fun, go check out the end of the 00z HRRR. Completely rakes FFX and Loudoun tomorrow night.Man, you’ve been getting screwed. Past couple of storms have been some of the more energetic ones I’ve seen in awhile. Lots of good T&L lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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