Stormpc Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Thanks, Yoda. Somehow LWX deleted my Skywarn information despite claiming they don't do that. I took Basics I when I was 13 (with permission/waivers from my parents and approved by staff at LWX). I used my spotter ID successfully for years - went to report something a year or two ago and was told my spotter ID didn't belong to me. I questioned them and just gave up. I don't have the time to go to in-persons basics I training...so this is perfect. Still would like to know what went wrong over at Sterling to apparently reassign my ID... Same thing happened to me. Mine was worse though. I took the course and they were supposed to mail everything. Apparently Babs never got to it so I wasted the whole evening at Mary Washington in Arlington sometime in the mid-2000s. That's all for nothing. I never bothered following up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Same thing happened to me. Mine was worse though. I took the course and they were supposed to mail everything. Apparently Babs never got to it so I wasted the whole evening at Mary Washington in Arlington sometime in the mid-2000s. That's all for nothing. I never bothered following up. Apologies to others for the banter - But @Stormpc - I attributed mine to the whole being under the age limit when I originally trained. Whole thing was strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Pouring rain here. Didn’t see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Wow, some of those look pretty heavy, and they're slow movers. Someone's gonna end up with a surprise 1.0 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Just had a small cell pop up overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Central aa county getting a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Pretty cool boundary being pushed west by the storms in PG and extreme SE Fairfax county toward Mt. Vernon on radarscope... you can also see another being pushed south through N VA too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty cool boundary being pushed west by the storms in PG and extreme SE Fairfax county toward Mt. Vernon on radarscope... you can also see another being pushed south through N VA too Good thing it means nothing for our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 I like surprise storm days even when I dont get hit. Glad some people got some rain and a little T&L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Good thing it means nothing for our backyards. Well actually have had a few showers off and on the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Well actually have had a few showers off and on the past hour Yes, a couple very light showers. Don’t try so hard, yoda! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Got under one of the really intense showers early tonight. Picked up more rain today in Stafford (0.76”) than I did yesterday (0.21”) go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 51 on the weather station in McHenry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 It was cool this morning. Was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 53.6 low here....doesn't get much better for late July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 61 for the low here, 77/67 absolutely stunning with a tad of muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 17 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Admit it ...you like the tease not yet! get me through September and then i will be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Borrowed from bluewave's posting ..... interesting that his area, and ours, are the warmest across the country. Of note to me is the cold pool and the cooler temps far to the NE and the warmth near us from NYC to Eastern NC, associated possibly with the warm Atlantic SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Where is Chuck ? If the cycle of the NAO goes according to plan we will bake next winter with a super strong WAR. Just kidding, but the remarkable continuation of NAO blocking continues, as it means nothing now for cooler, actually in later summer it is associated with warmer weather here. But when it flips it will last for many months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Once we get into winter the LR guidance will perpetually advertise a big NA block that will never materialize in real time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Once we get into winter the LR guidance will perpetually advertise a big NA block that will never materialize in real time. Should be illegal to even commnet on the weeklies once we get to close winter. Sorry, did I say weeklies, I mean the weaklings ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpodion Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 I live in New Jersey and we get thunderstorms all summer long. We are used to it. But Monday we had a line of them move through and they were very, very strong. There was a lot of damage. I had no electricity for 26 hours, some people still have no power. My question is why were these storms so intense? Was this a derecho? I have asked this question on other forums and haven't gotten a decent answer. Perhaps an actual meteorologist can answer this for me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 On 7/25/2019 at 11:08 AM, terpodion said: I live in New Jersey and we get thunderstorms all summer long. We are used to it. But Monday we had a line of them move through and they were very, very strong. There was a lot of damage. I had no electricity for 26 hours, some people still have no power. My question is why were these storms so intense? Was this a derecho? I have asked this question on other forums and haven't gotten a decent answer. Perhaps an actual meteorologist can answer this for me. Thanks. Well I'm certainly no meteorologist but I do know somethings about meteorology so here it goes. This past Monday, as you probably know, was the last day of the heatwave in the region. Very hot surface temperatures usually correspond with very steep low-level lapse rates which can help with higher winds aloft being mixed down to the ground say with, for example, a line of thunderstorms . Now this past Monday NJ had an area of 3,000+J/kg of mlcape (Mixed-layer convective available potential energy), which is fairly high (higher than usual), due to the high heat and humidity (surface temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's). With you being in central NJ that means your area missed the previous days storms. This is important because it means that nothing was able to stabilize and moisten the atmosphere. That means that there was some drier air aloft (10,000-20,000ft) for Monday afternoon in your area. So, when strong heating of a moist boundary-layer (the layer below the cumulus clouds) helped cumulus clouds grow into cumulonimbus clouds the water droplets evaporated in the dry air which causes it to cool and sink creating a downdraft. On Monday afternoon there were also some stronger winds aloft around the 700-600mb layer (10,000-15,000ft above the ground) of around 35-40 kts. That can help storm clusters generate a cold-pool and with warm/moist air being forced upwards ahead of the storms and the rain cooled air (the cold-pool) sinking as they move through this creates a feedback loop allowing the storms to accelerate forward to 35-40kts (40-46mph) or faster especially if instability is strong (which it was on Monday). The storms on Monday blasted through your area at 50-60 mph and with the steep low-level lapse rates in place a lot of that wind energy was able to reach the ground. The result is widespread 50-60 mph wind gusts. However, with stronger downdrafts embedded within the line of storms they could've added 15-20+mph to the 50-60 mph winds in localized areas. This is my two cents on Monday's storms in your area. I'm no meteorologist or expert for that matter and I probably look like a total fool to those experts. Oh well, I live and I learn and boy do I have a lot to learn in this field. I also apologize for the horrible grammar. I hope you were able to understand something through all that. Hopefully an actual expert can clarify what the heck I just tried to say lol. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Actually, I've never seen an explanation like this, and that was an awesome way of putting it, George. Even I could pretty much understand it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 86/61! COC Mid-Atlantic style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedlar mills Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 What does low level lapse rate mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 50 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 86/61! COC Mid-Atlantic style He said COC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 52 minutes ago, pedlar mills said: What does low level lapse rate mean? This link explains it in detail. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_lllr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 On 7/24/2019 at 12:11 PM, yoda said: Figured this would get more traffic and be seen more in this thread... but LWX is holding an online webinar basic skywarn class to be a spotter on August 13th from 6pm to 8pm for ALL LWX Sterling counties https://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn Hurry and get your spot if you have ever wanted to be a spotter for LWX and never got the time to go to one of the classes... or if you wish to refresh your knowledge (LWX says you should take a refresher course every 3-4 years if you already are a spotter for them). I just registered since I last took the class in 2016... there were something like 35 spots left, so get your spot now! It's also nice that LWX was able to do this so that you don't have to travel anywhere... you can take the class from your own computer at home and then become a spotter From the eventbrite link provided in the image: Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 3 mornings in a row in 50's in July....golden! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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