mappy Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 19 hours ago, George BM said: Well I'm certainly no meteorologist but I do know somethings about meteorology so here it goes. This past Monday, as you probably know, was the last day of the heatwave in the region. Very hot surface temperatures usually correspond with very steep low-level lapse rates which can help with higher winds aloft being mixed down to the ground say with, for example, a line of thunderstorms . Now this past Monday NJ had an area of 3,000+J/kg of mlcape (Mixed-layer convective available potential energy), which is fairly high (higher than usual), due to the high heat and humidity (surface temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's). With you being in central NJ that means your area missed the previous days storms. This is important because it means that nothing was able to stabilize and moisten the atmosphere. That means that there was some drier air aloft (10,000-20,000ft) for Monday afternoon in your area. So, when strong heating of a moist boundary-layer (the layer below the cumulus clouds) helped cumulus clouds grow into cumulonimbus clouds the water droplets evaporated in the dry air which causes it to cool and sink creating a downdraft. On Monday afternoon there was also some stronger winds aloft around the 700-600mb layer (10,000-15,000ft above the ground) of around 35-40 kts. That can help storm clusters generate a cold-pool and with warm air being forced upwards ahead of the storms and the rain cooled air (the cold-pool) sinking as they move through this creates a feedback loop allowing the storms to accelerate forward to 35-40kts (40-46mph) or faster especially if instability is strong (which it was on Monday). The storms on Monday blasted through your area at 50-60 mph and with the steep low-level lapse rates in place a lot of that wind energy was able to reach the ground. The result is widespread 50-60 mph wind gusts. However, with stronger downdrafts embedded within the line of storms they could've added 15-20+mph to the 50-60 mph winds in localized areas. This is my two cents on Monday's storms in your area. I'm no meteorologist or expert for that matter and I probably look like a total fool to those experts. Oh well, I live and I learn and boy do I have a lot to learn in this field. I also apologize for the horrible grammar. I hope you were able to understand something through all that. Hopefully an actual expert can clarify what the heck I just tried to say lol. great write up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 20 hours ago, George BM said: Well I'm certainly no meteorologist but I probably should be FIFY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 On 7/25/2019 at 10:49 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Once we get into winter the LR guidance will perpetually advertise a big NA block that will never materialize in real time. Today's guidance even deeper with the -NAO coming up. On on the flip side, this has caused a significant increase in the SST up North. (chart courtesy of bluewave ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 To follow up on the -NAO I took this image from the NY City forum, again courtesy of bluewave, where I asked him a question about the changing cold pool and how it has warmed. This really shows the dramatic change in the Atlantic SSTs over the past couple months. Also, look to the Pac and the Gulf of Alaska, as you know Alaska has been seeing incredible warmth. maybe lead to a +PDO. This is only a anomaly map, but still very interesting. I recall reading or hearing, a very warm Atlantic in October and November can act like a magnet drawing cold to its source region off of the North Amercian continet later in October and early November. Don't hold me to that as I believe I read it years ago. And, these so called changes can occur on the flip of switch. Similiar to last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Both the Pacific and Atlantic are opposite of last year, kind of a flat lining I think. The PNA was really persistently negative 2017-2018, and really changed last Nov-Dec to more neutral, or late 70's-like. It's a different pattern, I expect us to find other planets lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Another 50's am here, 4 in a row! Nice payback for last week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Goes to show you how hard the NAO is to predict, no one really knows, including the models and even the impressive EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 44 minutes ago, frd said: Goes to show you how hard the NAO is to predict, no one really knows, including the models and even the impressive EPS. At least the models are consistently bad through the seasons with predicting it. I must say though, it is so awesome to have this persistent -NAO for the summer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Check this out... done by Ian... make sure to read full tweet thread https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/1155257465228935169 @mappy should like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Nice Fall pattern actually showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Didn't feel it, but hit 92f today. (Same as USNA so might be right) And we hooked up the hose and did a bit of watering, for the first time since ...I dunno....September 2017 maybe. Several plants looking quite droopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Doing Rehobeth this weekend - hoping that front that is being advertised as stalling over the area and giving rain chances late week sets up further north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Avg temp is almost a degree cooler from a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 40 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Avg temp is almost a degree cooler from a week ago. Does it seriously peak in mid or late July? That's incredible. Or are you saying this week is cooler than last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Does it seriously peak in mid or late July? That's incredible. Or are you saying this week is cooler than last week? It does. Extrapolating the average temp chart for my area peaks in mid-late July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: Does it seriously peak in mid or late July? That's incredible. Or are you saying this week is cooler than last week? Great map here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbrettschneider/2018/07/08/when-does-the-hottest-day-of-the-year-usually-occur/#67127324548c 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Does it seriously peak in mid or late July? That's incredible. Or are you saying this week is cooler than last week? Why would that be incredible? It makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 55 minutes ago, mattie g said: Why would that be incredible? It makes sense. Over here it's different because sea surface temperatures peak in August and the SST will determine the daily maximum. I think most of us would agree that using average temperature guidance in short-term forecasting will not help much or even hurt you these days. We haven't cooled down because of any seasonal progression. By and large high-end heat has been rare this summer due to the -NAO/-AO couplet and we had a regression to the mean. A reliable indicator of our seasonal pattern are the European temperature anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Why would that be incredible? It makes sense. I thought temps peaked in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Ob: hot 94 for a high. Looks like 96 BWI, 94 IAD, and DCA brings up the rear again with 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 45 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ob: hot 94 for a high. Looks like 96 BWI, 94 IAD, and DCA brings up the rear again with 93. Didn’t feel that hot, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Didn’t feel that hot, to be honest. DP in the 60s is a heck of a lot better than the mid 70s. Mid 90s is still hot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 95 for the high. 81 in Deep Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Crazy thimes are these. What this means as signs to the NH I have no idea, but a very impressive event event down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 For those beach goers heads up to possible rip currents. There has been a pesky and eratic long period swell. Nothing too crazy, but heard there were several rescues the past several days. From mount holly RIP CURRENTS... The rip current forecast today is similar to yesterday and will be dependent on the swell period. The swell period has been varying between 5-15 seconds the last couple of days. When the longer period takes over, the swell is only 1-2 feet, but when the period is shorter, the swell is higher at 2-3 feet. With the variable conditions, we will have a moderate risk for dangerous rip current formation today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 30, 2019 Author Share Posted July 30, 2019 7/29/2019 highs: IAD: 96F BWI: 96F DCA: 94F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/28/2019 at 12:19 AM, yoda said: Check this out... done by Ian... make sure to read full tweet thread https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/1155257465228935169 @mappy should like it i saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 93 at home and at IAD. DCA lagging again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Wow we must’ve mixed efficiently, dews down to the low 60s and temps in the mid to upper 90s around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 30, 2019 Author Share Posted July 30, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Wow we must’ve mixed efficiently, dews down to the low 60s and temps in the mid to upper 90s around me. Current dewpoint at IAD is 58F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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