AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Should be a really nice day for storms, today. I'm wanting a MCS/derecho though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 72 degrees. Feels so cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 I'm going out to water. I am feeling a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 I always feel uncomfortable when not getting on the board early, but I’m not overly concerned right now. But I reserve the right to moan incessantly when I’ve only been fringed by about 7:00 this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Should be a really nice day for storms, today. I'm wanting a MCS/derecho though. WPC did a little tweak: the primary change from the previous outlook was to expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area. This was to cover where the model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 to 80% for 3". 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, frd said: WPC did a little tweak: the primary change from the previous outlook was to expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area. This was to cover where the model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 to 80% for 3". Hopefully it’s an area wide event. Tired of being shut out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, jewell2188 said: Hopefully it’s an area wide event. Tired of being shut out!! Hopefully it will be. The ingredients are there for a more region-wide rainfall. I was lucky last night to pick up some rain, storm went warned. Incredible lightening and very heavy rain, also experienced a gust front as well prior ro the rain. Good luck to you with the rain ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 heavy rains and lots of lightning last evening. power went out a few times. couple transformers in the area blew. good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Hopefully it will be. The ingredients are there for a more region-wide rainfall. I was lucky last night to pick up some rain, storm went warned. Incredible lightening and very heavy rain, also experienced a gust front as well prior ro the rain. Good luck to you with the rain ! Had one of those pulse type storms Saturday evening, was driving home and 2 mins from home road was closed due to about a 1/4 miles swath of large trees down across the road. Was quite the scene...figured it was a little microburst? Anyways would be great for the lawns to get some nice rainfall totals to go along with the upcoming cool down!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Interesting temps overnight. Bottomed out at 72 around 2am then rose to 82 by 7am. Was hoping for a bit of a cooler morning but that'll have to wait until tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, mappy said: heavy rains and lots of lightning last evening. power went out a few times. couple transformers in the area blew. good stuff. We got shutout down here but no worries. I've only had to do minimal watering of the garden this year with the regular 1-2" storms every week or so. Hopefully later today and tomorrow will be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, peribonca said: Interesting temps overnight. Bottomed out at 72 around 2am then rose to 82 by 7am. Was hoping for a bit of a cooler morning but that'll have to wait until tomorrow! Just like the 2012 derecho...there was no airmass change (fropa) so the temps went right back up to the mid 70s to low 80s overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 I take the WPC heavy rainfall outlooks with a huge grain of salt, but hopefully it's right this time. Quote Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 414 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...Lower Mississippi Valley...Tennessee Valley...Central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic... An expansive slight and moderate risk area was maintained this period along and ahead of the surface cold front forecast to push east and southeast from the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. There is a strong model signal for the potential for widespread heavy precipitation along and ahead of this front where pw values are forecast to remain 1.5 to2+ standard deviations above the mean. The associated amplifying mid to upper level trof will also provide favorable right entrance region jet dynamics along the boundary during the first half of the upcoming day 1 time period. The primary change from the previous outlook was to expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area. This was to cover where the model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 to 80% for 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just like the 2012 derecho...there was no airmass change (fropa) so the temps went right back up to the mid 70s to low 80s overnight. Derecho-redux - got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 13 hours ago, 87storms said: this lightning is something else. I was just on the southeastern side of that cell. Even with the limited visibility from my house (didn't get a chance to go up to Ft. Reno) I could see numerous ground strokes. Can only imagine what it must have been like to be directly under it! Hopefully upper NW bullseyes today. MBY has been fringed a lot this summer, except for the g/d hailstorm several weeks back that caused $1500 or so damage to my car (at least that was the estimate, you have to look pretty hard to see more than one or two dents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Derecho-redux - got it. lol...we'll probably never see another event like that in our lifetime. That and Isabel were top notch events likely to never be surpassed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I take the WPC heavy rainfall outlooks with a huge grain of salt, but hopefully it's right this time. The FFW got extended to most of the LWX CWA this morning as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Nice bright blue skies this morning... should help with the instability department as well as getting our temps back into the 90s today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 7 hours ago, Jebman said: What are you doin down in Currituck North Carolina? You on vacation or did you move down there for good? You really dont want to try and pull a Jebman Special and move south where it never snows lmao......... I made a permanent move to North Carolina. Closing on the sale of the house in Woodbridge next week. I am gone for good. Hopefully I get to experience a few more tropical events being that I'm right on the coast in the northern Outer Banks. I also don't have to fret and worry about every disappointing snow event that misses us. We just don't get any thing much down there. Whatever they get it's a bonus. I will still follow this for him though since I've known most of these people for 15 years or so. Plus it's the most entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: We got shutout down here but no worries. I've only had to do minimal watering of the garden this year with the regular 1-2" storms every week or so. Hopefully later today and tomorrow will be the same. i have no idea how much rain i got. i need to replace the batteries on the backyard station. usually the power cuts out overnight, but yesterday with storms coming in, the solar power died by 830. right as it began to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, yoda said: Nice bright blue skies this morning... should help with the instability department as well as getting our temps back into the 90s today Hope so...HRRR is weak sauce across the entire MOD flood risk area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Updated AFD mentions that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the strongest storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hope so...HRRR is weak sauce across the entire MOD flood risk area. yep - general 1-2" with isolated 3" west of the fall line if the HRRR is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 NAM isn't that excited about it either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 From last evening. Looking north from SW DC. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 The lightning shots in this thread are great. I've always loved lightning on still humid nights after a hot day. I swear that on humid days the light shows are more vivid...wonder if it's more CCN in the towers yielding better charges? Maybe @MN Transplant can shed some light on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 err.. too much water to the west to have a good thunderstorm day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Captured by my friend and chaser Joey Krastel last night in Kingsville. Puts my clip to shame lol received_388632742001953.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: Captured by my friend and chaser Joey Krastel last night in Kingsville. Puts my clip to shame lol Nope, yours was way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Looks like we'll probably need a watch box soon? Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1251 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT. * AT 1251 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT LENA, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FREDERICK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... THURMONT, EMMITSBURG, TANEYTOWN, WALKERSVILLE, WOLFSVILLE, MYERSVILLE, WOODSBORO, UNION BRIDGE, HARNEY, NEW MIDWAY, LADIESBURG, UTICA, PLEASANT WALK, ROCKY RIDGE, BOLIVAR, DETOUR, KEYSVILLE, KEYMAR, GRACEHAM AND LEWISTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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