mappy Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Ha! You moved to Stephen's City! yeah, its been pretty dry up my way. only 2.5" for all of June, almost all of that coming in the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 2 hours ago, H2O said: No storms here on the eastern shore but home got it. If anyone in the Kingstowne area can give feedback on what it was like I’d appreciate. Power went out at my moms house in Annandale so worried about that too I'm about 3.5 miles away from Kingstowne, and not far from Belle Haven Country Club. It rained. A lot of it, and heavy. It also got a bit windy and there was T&L. Storm was moving at a snail's pace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 91/DP 76 here. Looks like some high clouds moving in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Can't believe how sweaty I am from getting the ATV's ready for the WV trip. It's like I just stepped out of a pool with my pants on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Can't believe how sweaty I am from getting the ATV's ready for the WV trip. It's like I just stepped out of a pool with my pants on. I agree. Just stepped out for a late 420 session and broke a sweat just sitting there for 5 minutes. This is the only extreme type weather I don't like. Give me a high temp of 7 and a 50mph wind and I'm good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 High yesterday was 91 only made it to 87 today. Some interesting cumulus towers around. Perhaps building into a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Is radarscope overdoing the meso that it shows in our CWA? Like there is one right now just west of Middleburg in VA. But when you look at the base velocity (time sensitive) I don't see really any rotation at all. Am I reading it wrong? It's usually over by the BR as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Is radarscope overdoing the meso that it shows in our CWA? Like there is one right now just west of Middleburg in VA. But when you look at the base velocity (time sensitive) I don't see really any rotation at all. Am I reading it wrong? It's usually over by the BR as well There's another rotation marker on radarscope right now again by Middleburg... is this the mountains playing tricks again or is there real rotation there? (734pm radarscope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 There's another rotation marker on radarscope right now again by Middleburg... is this the mountains playing tricks again or is there real rotation there? (734pm radarscope)I could see calling it broad rotation based off the radar. As to if the mountains play any role... no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 83/70 at midnight - love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Going to be some weird storm motions today. 3k has things going S—N and even SE—NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 The euro was terrible at a 7+ day lead time for this period, but did catch on more quickly than the GFS that we would be stuck in an unsettled period with a lot of clouds and a few showers rather than big heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Hoping any fireworks from nature holds off until I can do my own fireworks show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Wow 78/78 at my local station and 78/77 at college park airport. Little humid out I’d say! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 75/70 here in McHenry with mostly sunny skies. Definitely warm and humid for this area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 88 degrees dp 77....100% gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: You can see it clearer on the reflectivity on the Hrdps better . Once that blob of n to s convection forms there's no east or west motion ..just rains itself out in those areas potentially. I'd think a flash flood threat is definitely possible and with real high pwats as well . Hope I can get in on some of that. My yard needs it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 New hrrrrr bullseyes MBY. I’m hugging. Pwats are 2”+. Whomever gets underneath a cell is gonna get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: 88 degrees dp 77....100% gross 86/78. Even in the shade this is unpleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: New hrrrrr bullseyes MBY. I’m hugging. Pwats are 2”+. Whomever gets underneath a cell is gonna get dumped on. And two miles away from the dump location it’ll be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: You can see it clearer on the reflectivity on the Hrdps better . Once that blob of n to s convection forms there's no east or west motion ..just rains itself out in those areas potentially. I'd think a flash flood threat is definitely possible and with real high pwats as well . I have noticed that storms traveling from a south or southeast direction tend to be slow movers and can dump a lot of precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 4, 2019 Author Share Posted July 4, 2019 Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ052>054-506-042330- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0006.190704T1700Z-190705T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * Until 8 PM EDT this evening * Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 1 PM this afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Torrential rainfall rates may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches in a short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of small streams and other poor drainage urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Someone is going to get a gully washer today. Decent CAPE, low shear and high PWATs. Also the convective temp is only 89° per the 12z sounding from IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 First shower pops up over my house!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Pretty good setup for torrential pulsers, esp just west/along and east of the bay where forcing along a low level boundary looks to get established. Most Mesos slam areas just to my SW with not much in my yard lol. Heads up Easton to Cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: New hrrrrr bullseyes MBY. I’m hugging. Pwats are 2”+. Whomever gets underneath a cell is gonna get dumped on. I’m not trying to steal your rain, but I need it so hopefully there’s enough to go around. In lieu of a rain dance, I’m brewing today which should being on the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Meso Precip Disco just issued, should take 15-20 min to appear: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=530&yr=2019 EDIT: worth a read Quote Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1140 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019 Areas affected...Interstate 95 corridor including northern VA, Washington DC, MD, southeast PA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 041540Z - 042100Z Summary...Rapidly developing but slow moving thunderstorms will produce torrential rain this afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed 2"/hr, during which the slow motion will allow for 1-3" of rainfall, locally higher. This could produce flash flooding, especially across the urban corridor where FFG is lower. Discussion...Convection is blossoming early this morning in a highly favorable environment ahead of a weak shortwave/MCV evident on GOES-16 WV imagery entering West Virginia. 12Z U/A soundings east of the Appalachians analyzed PWAT over 2 inches at most locations south of PA, and the 2.02" observed at IAD is a daily record. RAP forecasts suggests PWAT may climb as high as 2.25 inches across the discussion area this afternoon, which would not only be a daily record, but approach July monthly highs. This anomalous moisture is combining with 15Z RAP Analyzed MUCape already exceeding 3000 J/kg, producing a thermodynamic environment that is highly favorable for excessive rainfall. Both satellite and regional radar show thunderstorms developing quickly in response to the surface heating and mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km. Limited shear will inhibit storm organization this afternoon, leaving pulse convection as the expected mode. These storms will move very slowly in a weakly forced environment however, and RAP Corfidi vectors fall to less than 5 kts. This suggests nearly stationary storms with storm mergers and, eventually, boundary collisions from outflow driving renewed thunderstorm development. This makes it difficult to discern exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur as storms will remain scattered in nature, and this is echoed by recent HRRR and ARW guidance showing spotty heavy rain signatures over 3". However, rainfall rates of 2"/hr on top of the relatively lowered FFG of the urban corridor will support a flash flood risk until the atmosphere overturns later this afternoon. HREF 3-hr exceedance probabilities are modest, and 7-day rainfall departures are well below normal, but these types of rain rates could support flash flooding, especially where storms linger, mergers occur to briefly enhance rain rates, or across the impervious urban areas. Weiss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 13 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Matter what time of a year a 990s low off the Carolina coast catches my weenie attention. Gfs has been hinting at this time frame day 6-7 for a couple days . Eps actually has some minor interest . H5 says to me most likely a southern mid Atlantic storm and ene from there if it materializes but worth watching. Warm water so something tropical is certainly possible. Where's Wxwatcher Edit.. Looks like Wxwatcher mentioned this timeframe in the tropical thread At least maybe get some better swells down the road, it has been rather lame wave-wise along the lower Southern NJ coastline . Early next week has some potential possibly. But on a positive note, ocean temps near the surf zone have warmed the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Anyone under the northern Montgomery county cell No, but it looks decent. One just popped over Reisterstown. The good news for fireworks and outdoor lovers is that an early kick off could throw a bunch of outflow boundaries with rain cooled air everywhere so from like 4 or 5 pm onward we're good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 4, 2019 Share Posted July 4, 2019 LOVE these dews. I'm hoping we get some 80+ later this month. Did a quick search and what I'd give to be in Savannah right now. 95/75 HI 108. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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