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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Anyway...850s look pretty uniform in that 21-23C range. So those who mix out more (up here) probably verify hotter on Saturday by a couple of degrees. So again...pick your poison. 100/68 at MHT or 98/74 at BDL.

Def the 98-74. I'll be working outside too...can't wait!! Won't even need long sleeve pants or a shirt 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's actually interesting .. hm.   should be we believe it?

thing is, the MOS isn't just the raw adiabats ...tinted by clouds or whatever as we both knows...blah blah.  But, at times like these, when that looks that way I wonder what happened in the past ...what similar set up doink BDL from winning against your every day MHT's... wow.  Hopefully, it was when Kevin was trophy foisting -

I think it's the mixing...models are mixing down lower dews from N MA northward during the day while ORH-BOS is mostly in the 70-75 range. So we're probably just getting a thermodynamic advantage in the Merrimack Valley that MOS is sensing. It'll probably have BDL-TAN hotter than Sat once the MEX rolls out that far.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Still no 90s this month at CON. lol :axe:


 

GYX backing off on record heat, Don't look like CON gets resolved anytime soon either.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures this weekend will be hot but are currently
forecast to stay below record levels at Concord and Portland. The
record highs are as follows:
JUL 19
CONCORD: 98 in 1977
PORTLAND: 95 in 2013

JULY 20
CONCORD: 101 in 1977
PORTLAND: 96 in 1949

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord, NH ASOS remains out of service. At this time a
return to service date is unknown. During the outage, TAFs will
continue to be issued for Concord without amendments scheduled.
Climate data for Concord will also be affected, although backup
sources may be used to fill in data after the fact.

The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.
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Just now, powderfreak said:

Earthquakes? lol

Nocturnal boomers?

winds so strong it shakes the grounds lol. 

forest toppling winds Saturday night.

 

In all serious though there could be one helluva MCS or line Saturday night. I legit wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC go from nothing to an enhanced risk with the new outlook tonight 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway...850s look pretty uniform in that 21-23C range. So those who mix out more (up here) probably verify hotter on Saturday by a couple of degrees. So again...pick your poison. 100/68 at MHT or 98/74 at BDL.

Mountain valleys could make a good run like IZG, BML/HIE, MVL/MPV, etc.... we seem more prone to better mixing with the differential heating that goes on in the mountains.  

Wonder if we can pop a 95F on Saturday if it dries out to mid-60s dews?

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it's the mixing...models are mixing down lower dews from N MA northward during the day while ORH-BOS is mostly in the 70-75 range. So we're probably just getting a thermodynamic advantage in the Merrimack Valley that MOS is sensing. It'll probably have BDL-TAN hotter than Sat once the MEX rolls out that far.

Yeah ... that's it.. has to be.   I think central/N parts of the s-forum are closer to the actual conveyor there... There is a front astride the SL seaway on the Can side and that's helping to ( maybe ) stir things up a tad.   

Either way, if the theta-e stagnates in the high 70s yup - suck away clicks off the top. 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My grandfather would have a sweater on today... get older get colder?

Lol.  It would have to be a lot cooler for a sweater. Maybe acclamation to the heat the past few days is causing this cooler feeling.  It feels fine and certainly not worthy of sweater or jacket yet.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol.  It would have to be a lot cooler for a sweater. Maybe acclamation to the heat the past few days is causing this cooler feeling.  It feels fine and certainly not worthy of sweater or jacket yet.

I didn't get the older colder thing yet.  

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can sense the anger building.

I kinda don't blame 'im ... I'd be annoyed - 

Nothing worse than a com's outage crossing day-5 to day-4 ... after the Euro's had a iffy historic bomb for the entire mid range.  

Oh... but rest assured, the NAM to the rescue! With it barely able to see the time frame at 84 ...but only extrapolates to cirrus... phew!  

It's like ... you fuggers did that shit on purpose -

In this case, they planned this site outage ... They probably have the parts sitting in the back of a van and are waiting to come and outfit the site with whatever it needs at 4:34 Monday afternoon.  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL:BOS - ORH all should stay 80 or higher Sat nite 

If by "Saturday night" you mean through 11:59 PM, there's a good chance.  If that means Sunday's minima, I'll take the under for BDL/ORH, especially if it includes a Sunday evening minimum.  Warmest minima I see in my records is 78 at BDL and 77 at ORH.  Boston's low on Hot Saturday was 83 and they've had 4 minima each at 81 and 80, so a much better chance there.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If by "Saturday night" you mean through 11:59 PM, there's a good chance.  If that means Sunday's minima, I'll take the under for BDL/ORH, especially if it includes a Sunday evening minimum.  Warmest minima I see in my records is 78 at BDL and 77 at ORH.  Boston's low on Hot Saturday was 83 and they've had 4 minima each at 81 and 80, so a much better chance there.

I thought several years ago BDL got down to 79? 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did they accept that late 90s ORH snow data yet? ;)

I still have it for when NCDC wants it....err, I mean NCEI. They seem to prefer zeros though, so I'd expect they'll be happy with CON's July 2019 data.

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