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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was weird...lets see if this works:

 


1936	98
1937	99
1938	94
1939	96
1940	95
1941	96
1942	93
1943	97
1944	101
1945	96
1946	96
1947	99
1948	100
1949	101
1950	93
1951	92
1952	100
1953	100
1954	95
1955	100
1956	97
1957	98
1958	93
1959	96
1960	93
1961	95
1962	92
1963	98
1964	97
1965	93
1966	97
1967	94
1968	98
1969	95
1970	94
1971	94
1972	94
1973	99
1974	95
1975	102
1976	95
1977	102
1978	99
1979	95
1980	99
1981	99
1982	98
1983	99
1984	98
1985	93
1986	95
1987	96
1988	99
1989	96
1990	93
1991	99
1992	92
1993	99
1994	97
1995	100
1996	91
1997	95
1998	93
1999	98
2000	92
2001	97
2002	101
2003	93
2004	93
2005	97
2006	98
2007	96
2008	95
2009	95
2010	100
2011	103
2012	97
2013	99
2014	93
2015	96
2016	98
2017	95
2018	98

 

Much better!  and thanks bro -

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday could be a sneaky oppressive day. Everyone is focusing on Saturday. 

Yeah think I said that yesterday. May have seen Tippy mention it too. More of a SNE deal though as we'll tone it down a bit for sure from Sat. (at least I hope)

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mid 90s are being forecasted here. Pretty ordinary for peak climo but yes sure the warm sites will get close to 100 when a plane roars by. 

NAM has bigger numbers west of BOS vs the airport..which doesn’t make sense with a 280 wind which is hot as hell.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday could be a sneaky oppressive day. Everyone is focusing on Saturday. 

Yeah ..agree.. 

the thing is... we talk about nocturnals being held unsually high ... holy ass gas man!   Saturday night is going to be something really freakish... I wonder what it would be like at 3 am in the core of any brick and mortar, steel and glass urban centers.   

That's important...because as hot as Saturday looks...the launch pad Sunday morning is like a trust fund brat born rounding third telling everyone how hard they worked for their home run in life when it's 97, above MOS .. only 11am on Sunday morning.  I could see that happening... sure. 

82 for a low in urbania ... mm.  Something I've been wondering...if daily elevated miminum records might be broken.  We may cap 96/78 Sat afternoon ...fine.  But, given the synoptics, where ever that happens, good look whittling off degrees after dark. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I could see maybe 2 days of 90F+?  No way we get four.  

I dunno, it’s just local bias as we aren’t +5 for the month like a lot of spots...it’s been very pleasant and near normal (0.3).  We just averaged below normal for the past 4 day stretch.

Gonna get hot for Saturday for sure though.

It’s not even close in NNE and MPV in NNE is not seeing more than half the 90’s that last year was by Monday. Likely they will have a quarter of them at MPV on Monday . Any ways ...

 

lets see what the highest heat index is Friday to Sunday 

i recall last year EEN had around a 112 or so with like a 82 DP one day 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not even close in NNE and MPV in NNE is not seeing more than half the 90’s that last year was by Monday. Likely they will have a quarter of them at MPV on Monday . Any ways ...

 

lets see what the highest heat index is Friday to Sunday 

i recall last year EEN had around a 112 or so with like a 82 DP one day 

Sam was completely losing his shit at GYX too. lol

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM has bigger numbers west of BOS vs the airport..which doesn’t make sense with a 280 wind which is hot as hell.

Yeah I've been picking away at NAM numbers with this myself... It's either onto something, or is somehow bugging out on moisture handling I suspect.

Not sure which way to go. 

Thing is...it's not theoretically impossible that DPs are so anomalously high that they effectively 'rob' thermal energy away from the kinetic side of PV=NRT.   When the mass (N) increases, in order to keep the pressure*volume product from violating planetary arguments ...the temperature has to drop ... it's just math.  Anyway, if the WV is extraordinary... that could hold keep the temp from gaudy numbers ... 

I don't know ..haha.. .It's like Will said the other day.  Who the f even cares man... 94/78 vs 100/72 ?  really -  ...like that matters to 99.9999999999999% of anyone 'cept the loons you find in here that alter life trying to pin it down.. 

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Still no 90s this month at CON. lol :axe:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   CONCORD NH
                                          MONTH:     JULY
                                          YEAR:      2019
                                          LATITUDE:   43 12 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  71 30 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1   M   M   M   M   M   M    M  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 2   M   M   M   M   M   M    M  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 3   M   M   M   M   M   M    M  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 4   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 5   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 6   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0 3       M  M
 7   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 8   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
 9   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
10   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
11   M   M   M   M   M   M    M  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
12   M   M   M   M   M   M    M  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
13   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
14   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
15   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
16   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
17   M   M   M   M   M   M 0.00  0.0    0   M   M   M   M    M   0         M  M
================================================================================
SM   M   M           M   M  0.00     0.0     M          M        0
================================================================================
AV    M    M                                 M FASTST   M    M   0    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->     M   M                  M    M
================================================================================

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..agree.. 

the thing is... we talk about nocturnals being held unsually high ... holy ass gas man!   Saturday night is going to be something really freakish... I wonder what it would be like at 3 am in the core of any brick and mortar, steel and glass urban centers.   

That's important...because as hot as Saturday looks...the launch pad Sunday morning is like a trust fund brat born rounding third telling everyone how hard they worked for their home run in life when it's 97, above MOS .. only 11am on Sunday morning.  I could see that happening... sure. 

82 for a low in urbania ... mm.  Something I've been wondering...if daily elevated miminum records might be broken.  We may cap 96/78 Sat afternoon ...fine.  But, given the synoptics, where ever that happens, good look whittling off degrees after dark. 

BDL:BOS - ORH all should stay 80 or higher Sat nite 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..agree.. 

the thing is... we talk about nocturnals being held unsually high ... holy ass gas man!   Saturday night is going to be something really freakish... I wonder what it would be like at 3 am in the core of any brick and mortar, steel and glass urban centers.   

That's important...because as hot as Saturday looks...the launch pad Sunday morning is like a trust fund brat born rounding third telling everyone how hard they worked for their home run in life when it's 97, above MOS .. only 11am on Sunday morning.  I could see that happening... sure. 

82 for a low in urbania ... mm.  Something I've been wondering...if daily elevated miminum records might be broken.  We may cap 96/78 Sat afternoon ...fine.  But, given the synoptics, where ever that happens, good look whittling off degrees after dark. 

Down here in the suburbs it's even forecast to be 80F Saturday night, which I don't ever recall seeing. 

La Guardia may only get down to 84-85.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL:BOS - ORH all should stay 80 or higher Sat nite 

For BDL and BOS, ... I'm pretty close to droppin' bills down against the dealer on this, yup - 

It's gonna be close... I've seen it be like 81 at Logan for four consecutive hours, then at 4:55 ...just before the light umbra tips a glow over the eastern horizon they weasel a 78.4 for a two minute spike.

Not sure about Worcester tho - the impetus of the prior post was "urban"?    The air port is 1,000 set up on a plateau well removed from that. Not sure that site'll maintain the same thermal bubble as the former. 

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

"close to par"

It's definitely been more anomalous further south. BTV is below normal on their torch HIX values YTD. BDL is only slightly below it YTD. And yes, I'm having fun with the ISU plots today.

image.png

image.png

Oh man I’ve never seen these before...had no idea they had this.  Will have to dig in a bit later.

I was just more thinking in terms of dews, last July felt worse but I’m probably thinking of that first week where we had 5 straight days 88+ for highs and some high mins.  That was a torrid stretch.

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For BDL and BOS, ... I'm pretty close to droppin' bills down against the dealer on this, yup - 

It's gonna be close... I've seen it be like 81 at Logan for four consecutive hours, then at 4:55 ...just before the ligh umbra tips a glow on the eastern horizon they weasel at 78.4 for a two minute spike.

Not sure about Worcester tho - the impetus of the prior post was "urban"?    The air port is 1,000 set up on a plateau well removed from that. Not sure that site'll maintain the same thermal bubble as the former. 

You will get your 90F @ 9, but it may be PM.

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55 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Blech, of course I let myself get roped into helping a friend move on Sunday. 

ha ha...  you dope.   oh man - that's funny...  

well, with any luck, it'll be the third floor up a non-ventilated stairwell like you see in a '70s gritty ghetto film, and the actual living space is a converted attic with all the associated thermodynamics of the typical urban tripleplex - hopefully ...there's that one piece of furniture that can't get around the corners so you have to stall and wait it out while someone dinks around with with a screw driver taking foot pegs off ... "oh - shit.  flat- heads"

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Just now, dendrite said:

May be 9am up here.

12z MAV 100+ for Sat

CON 101
LWM 101
MHT 100
ASH 100
IZG 100
FIT 100
 

BDL 99
BOS 98
PVD 95

that's actually interesting .. hm.   should be we believe it?

thing is, the MOS isn't just the raw adiabats ...tinted by clouds or whatever as we both knows...blah blah.  But, at times like these, when that looks that way I wonder what happened in the past ...what similar set up doink BDL from winning against your every day MHT's... wow.  Hopefully, it was when Kevin was trophy foisting -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha ha...  you dope.   oh man - that's funny...  

well, with any luck, it'll be the third floor up a non-ventilated stairwell like you see in a '70s gritty ghetto film, and the actual living space is a converted attic with all the associated thermodynamics of the typical urban tripleplex -  

Reminds me of moving my sister into Manhattan on June 1st several years ago... 4th floor, no elevator, no AC in any public spaces... dripping sweat lugging furniture up a hot stairwell on the East Side of Manhattan.... I was all set with that.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Reminds me of moving my sister into Manhattan on June 1st several years ago... 4th floor, no elevator, no AC in any public spaces... dripping sweat lugging furniture up a hot stairwell on the East Side of Manhattan.... I was all set with that.

Bingo! 

That's ...basically what I hope Hoth encounters for having the audacity of actually helping someone with a good deed - 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha ha...  you dope.   oh man - that's funny...  

well, with any luck, it'll be the third floor up a non-ventilated stairwell like you see in a '70s gritty ghetto film, and the actual living space is a converted attic with all the associated thermodynamics of the typical urban tripleplex - hopefully ...there's that one piece of furniture that can get around the corners so you have to stall and wait it out while someone dinks around with with a screw driver taking foot pegs off ... "oh - shit.  flat- heads"

You joke, but it is exactly that. Third floor, steep narrow stairs, crap ventilation. Thankfully the destination has an elevator, but it's still gonna be a nightmare worthy of Kafka.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Some just can’t accept it. It’s just warmer in the summer lately. Partly seasonal, partly GW. 

This is true, but the local long-term co-op is doing it all with minima, and not even super-high minima.  Using only the data gathered since July 1966 by the current observer, who is 1.3 miles north of town center while all obs 1893-1966 were taken in town, annual frequency of 90+ days is shown below:

1960s   3.4
1970s   3.5
1980s   3.1
1990s   3.0
2000s   3.8
2010s   2.6  (Does not include 2019 to date.  I don't think they've touched 90 yet, but don't have July temps to prove it.  June max was 85.)
Not much trend there.  And the highest temp 2011-on is 93, in May 2017.  Last time they got above 95 was in 1995.

They've recorded just 38 minima of 70+, with 10 coming 1966-on.  Smaller sample size is 72+, with only 11 and just one (7/22/1977) in the past 69 years.  However, the co-op has notched 229 minima 67-69, including 61 since 7/66 (thus 71 at 67+), and there's a real trend for those, average annual by decades:

1960s   0.9
1970s   1.3
1980s   0.6
1990s   0.6
2000s   1.7
2010s   2.9 
Could probably extend the data to 65+, or even 60+, and see the same trend, only with a much bigger sample thus lots more work given some quirks in my Excel performance.

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