CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 It’s not all GW. You have spikes that are more explained by things like ENSO, AMO etc. But, there is an underlying trend overall for summers recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s just very disturbing. Seriously Fame has its downside my friend. People want to bring you down when you’re on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some just can’t accept it. It’s just warmer in the summer lately. Partly seasonal, partly GW. It's not just summer. Cold winter nights for example are on the decline, and our first frost/freeze dates are pushing deeper and deeper into the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, radarman said: That stepwise jump after the 97/98 super nino looks a bit suspect on this one. All of the annual ones have it. The first 3 were JJA. Goes to show the dews are trending worse during the cold season than even the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's not how trend lines works. They don't have to start at the initial value. I forget the equations for calculating them though...it's been awhile since I had stats in college. lol Yea I forgot too. Thanks again for providing local stats, its all I wanted to see. It bugs me when charts like Nolls are shown with 38N as representative of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We can. I would just like to see data for our region specifically. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea I forgot too. Thanks again for providing local stats, its all I wanted to see. It bugs me when charts like Nolls are shown with 38N as representative of the NE. PVD. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: All of the annual ones have it. The first 3 were JJA. Goes to show the dews are trending worse during the cold season than even the summer. The BOS one not so much. But unless something catastrophically changed after 97/98, that argues to me more of a sinusoidal like periodic function, indicating we might be poised for a drop here... granted with higher base due to creeping AGW influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, radarman said: The BOS one not so much. But unless something catastrophically changed after 97/98, that argues to me more of a sinusoidal like periodic function, indicating we might be poised for a drop here... granted with higher base due to creeping AGW influences. Why I asked for moving average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We can. I would just like to see data for our region specifically. Feel like might get knifed at a get together . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fame has its downside my friend. People want to bring you down when you’re on top. Lol when you post hype shit all the time you are going to get called out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Feel like might get knifed at a get together . Sensitive guy being sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Maybe BOS has some marine influence depending on seabreeze frequency in the spring? idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Feel like might get knifed at a get together . C'mon, For christ sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 It look(s)(ed) like we did get that secondary acceleration behind the primary cold front.. It was evidenced on satellite - I haven't bothered with the tedium of ASOS wind obs as I don't trust 'em anyway. It's probably too sensy to be detected by any rounding schemes ... and/or fractals that would love to avoid wind cups deliberately to make this look wrong. But it did look like it punched in shortly after dawn, as an under-cast perturbation that rippled in an arc toward the SW... ----------------- NAM's overnight machine interpretations don't get it hot on Friday...well, relatively speaking. It gets it 81 to 87 depending, with a much slower turn around of the regional BL vectors during the day compared to the global models. On the surface *( pun intended...) that doesn't exactly offend the better reasoning ... it's very high resolution may be "seeing" low level resistance better - or not. I've seen it fail in this but, this is a weighty dense air mass invading..It's not just BD... it's actually mostly straight up summer cP air bubbling down, that's mixing in BD/GOM type hybrid. Anyway, the Globals are selling us the idea here that said bubble high completely normalizes and smears out into the evolving longer term pattern, and establishes a deep enough return flow that we tsunamis OV heat all the way to Boston Light sun down tomorrow. I'll give the notion of a late high a nod, either way... but, it's going to be interesting to see if the Euro/GFS are right about 92 to 95 outta this turn around tomorrow. Should the NAM prevail... heh, can't say it's a shocker. The other thing about the NAM is that it's convective sequencing may be also effecting it's solution for heating potential.. I'm noticing that in addition to being somewhat slower to homogenize the surface pressure pattern...it's flaring old MCS garbled gunk again over southern Ontario nearing 18z and races it east... It even seems to start materializing what I suspect is a rain cooled assisted cool front signature in the pressure pattern associated with that... The Global runs don't do this.. But, the NAM may be contaminating the sun's ability to heat things, too. Just sayn'. ---------------- Saturday is also not that hot in the NAM MOS. Now... as your eyes roll around (and rightfully so...) keep in mind that it's DPs of 78 and native tendency NOT to mix vertically outside of convection, may be limiting NAM BL expansion. It does seem a little shirked that 22 C at 850 on a perfect west wind and very low cloud level RH ...would end up less than typical BL depth/adiabat... The GFS, on the contrary, does that too much as a general rule, and therefore, sky rockets barotropic air temperatures at the mere sight of sun-up insolation. What's interesting is that the 'X MOS DPs are still running 77-ish ... so that's confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not all GW. You have spikes that are more explained by things like ENSO, AMO etc. But, there is an underlying trend overall for summers recently. I've always had a hypothesis... Most of the temperature records (record warmth) has occurred since the AMO flipped in the mid 90's...and other global climate phenomena which is or what you would expect with a +AMO has occurred more frequently. My hypothesis is that once the AMO flips into the negative phase and after a period of time when the atmosphere responds accordingly...if we continue to see these extreme warmth signals and records being broken then there is absolutely no denying climate change due to global warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 We need to get back in the heat to quiet folks down....no fighting no biting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: C'mon, For christ sakes. Hey he might get shot too or more likely have a beer bought for him. But he may hire Blackwater security, install extensive surveillance cameras, have a follow car filled with men with glocks and AKs, ya never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: C'mon, For christ sakes. Lol. Let’s all just enjoy each other and our weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: We need to get back in the heat to quiet folks down....no fighting no biting... This is fun Jerry, discussing 70 dp versus 63 DP isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It look(s)(ed) like we did get that secondary acceleration behind the primary cold front.. It was evidenced on satellite - I haven't bothered with the tedium of ASOS wind obs as I don't trust 'em anyway. It's probably too sensy to be detected by any rounding schemes ... and/or fractals avoiding wind cups. But it looked like it punched in shortly after dawn and as an under-cast perturbation that rippled in an arc toward the SW... ----------------- NAM's overnight machine interpretations don't get it hot on Friday...well, relatively speaking. It gets it 81 to 87 depending, with a much slower turn around of the regional BL vectors during the day compared to the global models. On the surface *( pun intended...) that doesn't exactly offend the better reasoning ... it's very high resolution may be "seeing" low level resistance better - or not. I've seen it fail in this but, this is a weighty dense air mass invading..It's not just BD... it's actually mostly straight up summer cP air bubbling down, that's mixing in BD/GOM type hybrid. Anyway, the Globals are selling us the idea here that said bubble high completely normalizes and smears out into the evolving longer term pattern, and establishes a deep enough return flow that we tsunamis OV heat all the way to Boston Light sun down tomorrow. I'll give the notion of a late high a nod, either way... but, it's going to be interesting to see if the Euro/GFS are right about 92 to 95 outta this turn around tomorrow. Should the NAM prevail... heh, can't say it's a shocker. The other thing about the NAM is that it's convective sequencing may be also effecting it's solution for heating potential.. I'm noticing that in addition to being somewhat slower to homogenize the surface pressure pattern...it's flaring old MCS garbled gunk again over southern Ontario nearing 18z and races it east... It even seems to start materializing what I suspect is a rain cooled assisted cool front signature in the pressure pattern associated with that... The Global runs don't do this.. But, the NAM may be contaminating the sun's ability to heat things, too. Just sayn'. ---------------- Saturday is also not that hot in the NAM MOS. Now... as your eyes roll around (and rightfully so...) keep in mind that it's DPs of 78 and native tendency NOT to mix vertically outside of convection, may be limiting NAM BL expansion. It does seem a little shirked that 22 C at 850 on a perfect west wind and very low cloud level RH ...would end up less than typical BL depth/adiabat... The GFS, on the contrary, does that too much as a general rule, and therefore, sky rockets barotropic air temperatures at the mere sight of sun-up insolation. What's interesting is that the 'X MOS DPs are still running 77-ish ... so that's confusing. Why can't we trust wind obs? Cups and vanes were replaced by ultrasonic sensors 10-15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Interesting rain activity here. Just sitting right overhead. Wish it was oes in february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Other than 4th of July week, a lot of the first 2/3 of July wasn't that bad for heat and dews last year. This year hasn’t felt bad at all too, luckily. I thought last summer was worse. But we’ve been on an island of normal temps up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 ASOS doesn't report a sustained wind of under 3kt so there's a lot of calm or variable winds from early this morning. There's definitely a more sustained NE flow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman21 said: Why can't we trust wind obs? Cups and vanes were replaced by ultrasonic sensors 10-15 years ago. I'm being partially tongue in cheek ... They may be fine. If you have information privy to the instrumentation that is real and reviewable, by all means. I just recall back in college that all those ob points were rounded - if they have some decimal equivalent improvement in finite measure techniques, awesome! Otherwise, I've seen too many obs vary at random times over the years ... like 60 degrees at one, and 110 degree directions at the other, during easterly gales... when a focused jet should have them all be locked at 90 ... That doesn't inspire confidence when one sees that. Maybe things have improved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Let’s all just enjoy each other and our weather You absolutely know we bust balls at all times and laugh while posting. Its weather no one really gaf. Love ya man, look forward to having some brews some day. I will leave my KA bar home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Feel like might get knifed at a get together . Looked like your wife was concerned about that while the Google car drove by. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Last year by this time in July at MVL we had hit 90+ a whopping 4 times and had 6 mins of 60F or greater... including a 72F minimum and 2 days of +14 and +15 departures. This year we haven’t hit 90F once and have had only 1 minimum of exactly 60F. It has been much tamer this July than last for sure looking at that stuff. Last July started: 92/68 92/72 88/61 92/56 92/60 Not even close this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've always had a hypothesis... Most of the temperature records (record warmth) has occurred since the AMO flipped in the mid 90's...and other global climate phenomena which is or what you would expect with a +AMO has occurred more frequently. My hypothesis is that once the AMO flips into the negative phase and after a period of time when the atmosphere responds accordingly...if we continue to see these extreme warmth signals and records being broken then there is absolutely no denying climate change due to global warming. Solid view, agree...even though the writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Last year by this time in July at MVL we had hit 90+ a whopping 4 times and had 6 mins of 60F or greater... including a 72F minimum and 2 days of +14 and +15 departures. This year we haven’t hit 90F once and have had only 1 minimum of exactly 60F. It has been much tamer this July than last for sure looking at that stuff. And we'll be close to par on that come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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