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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hottest I've ever been was during that heat wave, Sat-Mon, July 2-4.  NYC had 100/103/98 those days and LGA touched 107 on Sunday.  I was doing short-order cooking at Curtiss-Wright's employee lake resort in NNJ, and it was stifling hot behind the counter that Sunday.  Cheap coil thermometer on the side of the counter opening only had scale to 120° and the needle was way past there - at least 140 and that was as far from the gas griddle that we could get.  Had to stop toasting rolls under the griddle, as they bypassed brown and went straight to black.  Must've been well above 150 where we'd stand to flip burgers.  However, with a temp/dew of 160/70, RH would be under 10% so the sweat dried almost instantly.  One sweaty customer asked how we looked so "fresh" and sweatless; my response was something like "oven-dried."  We set records that Sunday for attendance, ice tea sales (natch) and coffee sales (hot coffee only.)  At that time I'd never had even one cup of hot coffee, and was puzzled that, while ice tea demand varied by the wx, coffee varied by the number of people thru the gate.

Import some dragon flies and you won't see any of them, When we have the dragon flies at the golf course, The horse/deer flies are no where to be found, They pick them off right in mid air.

At forestry summer camp in 1974, we were building a two-span timber bridge for an eastern Washington County logging road.  Height of black fly season and the work site was right in their spawning zone - clouds of them so thick that one needed to breathe thru one's teeth.  About 2 PM a couple hundred dragonflies appeared and 10 minutes later there wasn't a black fly to be seen.  I've read that the larger species can take in 100 bugs/hour, and their (aquatic) nymphs can catch and eat small fish. 

The most Dragon Flies I've seen here in quite some time  along the bays.

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meh ... GFS is just doing the same thing, oscillating backwards again... a run or two in the future, the other way.  Highly confident of that happening about every second run, up or down.  

You can tell it's going to do that in the near term just watching the behavior of it ridge handling... If it's slightly flatter with the ridge, the mid range is aggressive with troughs ...  Then, if the ridge is slightly stronger...troughs are overall less incurring to mid latitudes.  It's been clad every time!  Oh... flat ridge.. .here comes the YUP.  It strikes me as large scale 'sloshing' error - for lack of better description.  Where the whole thing is oscillating some 6 dm heights up or lower everywhere. 

That's a bug in the algorithms -  when the whole thing moves en masse like that... up , then down... unilaterally, it's not likely real.  More like an emergent property of a complex system - almost like "giga" motions in mechanics. 

 

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Instrumentation ... 

every NWS site is substantially lower than just about every personal station tied into social media platforms...  By a considerable margin, too.  There's a sensible difference between 90/71 vs 90/77 ... 

I was outside here at lunch and we had to bail on the patio idea at the office - too unbearable after just 1/2 hr ( funny ...we were complaining about the office being too cool ... wham).  Feels like the DP is higher than 71 ... but that of course don't mean diddly 

 

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GFS/GFSX MOS' have come around to hot Friday now...   96/74 at FIT ...   

Still has the 101/73 on Saturday ... My guess is what Chris and I were discussing the other day needs to be considered.   And it has to do with the GFS heredity not yet properly handling BL Meteorology.  

It's may be overly mixing the column and allowing the temperature side of the Equation to rise to far.    My hunch is it caps around 96 but with 77 type insanity...  I mean, splitting "airs" there...right.

96/77 is probably about the same as 101/73 ...   Basically a good day to leave your dog in the front seat of your rural 1984 Massachusetts chevy pickup truck that has a back gate wired shut -

Also, has 96/73 for Sunday

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