CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: whoosh..... What's woosh? I was just describing it for those who haven't looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: First real summer for our 1 year old St Bernard/ Siberian Husky mix, yea he doesn't like heat at all, holes up inside from 1000 pm to 6 pm, thats when the Sun is in the yard. I had a St Bernard/Lab mix that loved the cold. Most of my previous dogs would sit outside in a hole they dug in the shade. This dog loved to stay inside when the A/C was on during the summer and outside during the winter. We used to shave the dog in the early summer so she would be cooler and then she'd have her full coat back by fall. I miss that dog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What's woosh? I was just describing it for those who haven't looked. We thought you was responding to my eps post. No whoosh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We thought you was responding to my eps post. No whoosh? Haha, no...just mostly going along with what you were saying. It will be AN though...my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Yeah that’s the camp I lean in. Slightly AN with lowest departures the further NE you go. But that’s been the trend for awhile now...there’s just a seasonal progression to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 I dunno if that D10 Euro chart from 00z was intended for sarcasm/ribbing or what, but ...the 850 mb chart for that same time has 20 to 21 C air ribbon/plume streaking up over SNE in a narrow warm sector! So...yeah, either way.. Torch look... Hey Wiz' ... Saturday is emerging somewhat as a convection contender. There is strong evidence using the freebie/granular charts alone, for a bit of an EML expulsion to arc up over the ridge ...N of the Lakes at 48 hours, and pluming down over all of New England Friday. That's a hot day! ...probably the hottest of this stretch with 18 or 19 C and what gradient there is ...offshore. But, come Saturday, a coherent dent ripples along through eastern Ontario and it's dragging a decent mid/upper air wind acceleration right into that stagnated elevated mix layer. Just for these canvased parameters, that looks like a day to watch. Limitations would be...does that S/W up there trend a little flatter.. if so, there's probably still too much CIN ... part of the idea is that heights along the ridge rim fall just below a threshold ..signaling some tendency for the EML to expose lapse rates to what is probably still very warm/sultry air mass in place...etc..etc.. But if that gets less, than naturally the risk reduces. Right now ...I'd say NNE is under the gone either way in that over all evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Yea our July call is for +1 to +2 from NE to SW in the region. Going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea our July call is for +1 to +2 from NE to SW in the region. Going as planned. This is just for the general reader: This is like the new normal ... "+1" ... Obviously, there's a more exacting decimal value... but, with the background global thing ...every location everywhere runs a flat probability, however large or small, of averaging above normal, for every interval of time being evaluated. GW inuits that is a positive result. That's basically just the math of everywhere being an climate curve with an upward angled slope. Relative to that slope... a 0.0 month is actually below normal (hmm ...that'll scratch some heads). So what I'm getting at as is sort of a philosophy. It might actually be useful to determine with better sophistication what the slope of the curve's trajectory is based on the last 20 years ...and to the best tech can offer, prognosticated going forward. Then, one can assess two distinct forms of above(below) normal: One that is a comparison between results vs the scalar climate numbers; and one that is relative to that curve. That's the more important metric in my mind... The GW stuff has it's threat ... but in nature, it's always the acceleration that gets you...in every system in reality.. A region may get used to +1 ...then ... gets whacked with a +3 ...may mean something extraordinary and unusually stressing may have taken place. We live in a world where climate models predict the increased frequency of deadly heat waves ...and well, guess what...we're getting them. Not in southeast Canada, the U.S. eastern Lakes and New England for whatever reason... but the world is suffering these. These events exceed the background slope of the curve's upward trajectory and are such acceleration events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea our July call is for +1 to +2 from NE to SW in the region. Going as planned. At this point I would tend to agree with +2 for July but expect +5 for August and September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: At this point I would tend to agree with +2 for July but expect +5 for August and September. couple of 102's ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: couple of 102's ? Wouldn’t shock me in August. Bar is lower for that kind of departure for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 We do our steady positive departures now more because of torchy mins via higher dews/GHGs. We’re not popping many 100s...yet. If we can just keep the dews down this summer it should at least be nice in the rad sites at times. We used to average mid 50s mins up here for July, but that has been steadily climbing toward 60°. I’m sure the new norms in a couple years won’t be any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wouldn’t shock me in August. Bar is lower for that kind of departure for September. the hottest I recall in the last 20 years was a day in ... I think it was late July 2010. It was 99 at 11:50 am driving down Rt 9 at 50 mph for several minutes...indicative of that temp being legit ( as far as modern car dash. readings go...). By 4:30... driving back down that same road was 105. Now, at the time, NWS sites were all in the 99 to 102 range ... but, those housing are not situated in the mall -town brick-and-mortar setting of open parking lots and broad black-topped streets like Framingham's rt 9 expanse, either. In fact... that may be the hottest day I've ever experience since moving to New England 30+ years ago. Anyway, keep in mind... it's hard to get 100 F ? Beyond the obvious... our sun needs to be fairly unadulterated/unabated to get that, with nearly ideal wind direction. Those two factors can ruin a bona fide 100 F entry ...and cap it to 96 real real quick around here. Not sure if it is a latitude issue ... or a geographical one, but I assume we are nearing the insolation angular threshold, such that geographical features does the rest. sumpin' like that ... Of course, I think Fairbanks, Alaska's all-time reading is 101 ... or maybe that was Ft Yukon... i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 The models are battling between a PNA vs an EPO pattern canvas through D15. ...and they really shouldn't be favoring either .... At least, not so coherently. The planetary wave lengths are being modeled longer than the traditional climatology suggest they should be. The result is late mid and extended range layouts with these weird mid winter R-wave constructs ... When PNA, deep JB vortex and exotic gradient with a long-wave trough that engulfs the entire continent. Mmm... okay there, GFS. You go boy - Then, more of an EPO takes over, and we get heights to tuck into the west like they should... but then the GFS does this thing where it ablates the ridge/heights from rising back east... SO yayyy...GFS gets to be cold no matter what. meanwhile it's destined to be 88 to 92 every day thru Saturday. This week was just like that described above, when it was in the extended range mind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea our July call is for +1 to +2 from NE to SW in the region. Going as planned. Awt. Never ending torch lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Awt. Never ending torch lol... Typical summer, nothing extreme, that ends AN because of higher mins mixed in with some AN days...as usual. August will get hot though but that’s just weenie talk, no science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is insane. There’s your torch. +20 to +30 departure from norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is insane. All-time record high going bye-bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: All-time record high going bye-bye Ryan Maue will blame the sensors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan Maue will blame the sensors. They only have 17 max temps > 80F in their record going back to 1952. I hope they shock and awe with their first 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the hottest I recall in the last 20 years was a day in ... I think it was late July 2010. It was 99 at 11:50 am driving down Rt 9 at 50 mph for several minutes...indicative of that temp being legit ( as far as modern car dash. readings go...). By 4:30... driving back down that same road was 105. Now, at the time, NWS sites were all in the 99 to 102 range ... but, those housing are not situated in the mall -town brick-and-mortar setting of open parking lots and broad black-topped streets like Framingham's rt 9 expanse, either. In fact... that may be the hottest day I've ever experience since moving to New England 30+ years ago. Anyway, keep in mind... it's hard to get 100 F ? Beyond the obvious... our sun needs to be fairly unadulterated/unabated to get that, with nearly ideal wind direction. Those two factors can ruin a bona fide 100 F entry ...and cap it to 96 real real quick around here. Not sure if it is a latitude issue ... or a geographical one, but I assume we are nearing the insolation angular threshold, such that geographical features does the rest. sumpin' like that ... Of course, I think Fairbanks, Alaska's all-time reading is 101 ... or maybe that was Ft Yukon... i dunno John, take a look at the dailies for August 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is insane. Major ridging near Alaska seems to be the new thing the last few years. At least it helps the cold lovers in the lower 48 during the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: John, take a look at the dailies for August 2002. 2011 was his July heat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Spending the first 2 weeks of August in PEI/NS is looking better and better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 This normal summer warmth feels great. Still waiting for the dews that have been promised for weeks by some. 85/61 45% humidity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Dews arrive Fri/Sat. Then we dry it back down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 2011 was his July heat too. Yeah it was 2011 ... not 2010... Jerry, that 2011 July day beat out Aug 2002 by a couple of ticks. I was working a gig down on Comm ave. right across the B.U. block ...and recall the day pretty vividly .. the highest I found was 98 - that day I recall even remarking that a cirrus plume perfect timed 10 to 2 pm to steal 3 clicks off "frosting" off the totals - ... definitely a hot one though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Spending the first 2 weeks of August in PEI/NS is looking better and better! Ummmmm, who is going to tell him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: At this point I would tend to agree with +2 for July but expect +5 for August and September. I'll take the under for AUG-SEP. Last year included Boston's warmest August on record, at 77.42. Their 1981-2010 average is 72.39. Their warmest September came in 1983 with 70.58, only year above 70 for that month. 1981-2010 is 65.16. AN seems in the cards, but warmest AUG-SEP (by nearly 1° F) looks to be a stretch. Not impossible, just unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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