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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Saturday screams high cloud debris.

also, I am not buying these 105-110+ heat index values being tossed around Saturday. So many running with those numbers. Even if there is no cloud debris I don’t see dews staying into the 70’s

idk...I think sites avoiding MCS crap reach HIX values 105-110F easy. Even 97/75 gets you 110F. 99/70 gets you 106F.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

DXR?

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KDXR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/16/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23|WED CLIMO
 N/X  71  85| 70  74| 64  88| 73  95| 70  90| 67  82| 62  79| 61 61 84
 TMP  76  77| 71  70| 69  81| 79  86| 78  80| 72  74| 67  72| 69      
 DPT  68  72| 67  67| 67  72| 74  75| 70  69| 65  67| 61  59| 61      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| CL      
 WND   7   8|  5   6|  5   9|  7  12|  7   7|  4   7|  6   7|  4      
 P12  19  58| 91  63| 24   5| 15   8| 15  11| 29  45| 37  21| 20999999
 P24      63|     93|     24|     17|     20|     58|     46|      999
 Q12   0   1|  5   2|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   4|       |         
 Q24       1|      5|      0|      0|      0|      4|       |         
 T12  13  41| 36  11|  5  16| 15  19| 13  14| 22  27| 17  16|  7      
 T24        | 54    | 13    | 25    | 27    | 33    | 30    | 16      
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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Saturday screams high cloud debris.

also, I am not buying these 105-110+ heat index values being tossed around Saturday. So many running with those numbers. Even if there is no cloud debris I don’t see dews staying into the 70’s

We had citrus and midlevel debris today and we hit 94 with a much cooler 850 airmass 

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I think sites avoiding MCS crap reach HIX values 105-110F easy. Even 97/75 gets you 110F. 99/70 gets you 106F.

I’m thinking that dews end up mixing down into the mid 60’s. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had citrus and midlevel debris today and we hit 94 with a much cooler 850 airmass 

The high clouds may halt some areas getting to 100 or 101. There are even some hints we could see convection during the day 

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43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Topomaps are more accurate than apps.  

Trust me, I use a lot of both to get elevations around here.  Phone GPS apps can be off by up to 100ft or more at times.  

I could go to the same spot 10 days in a row and get 10 different elevation estimates on various hiking/skiing apps.  Now they aren’t off by much but they’ll be different every time.

Google maps and google earth, topographic setting, is the most accurate and it’s even used in construction planning on the hill.

Everytime this gives me 987-990’. For many years. I trust it. I’m just about at the top of the hill. The highest point is 996’

L3gp50H.png

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m thinking that dews end up mixing down into the mid 60’s. 

The high clouds may halt some areas getting to 100 or 101. There are even some hints we could see convection during the day 

I don't know....that citrus looking thing in the sky might push us to 100. B)

But for real, I'm going to take the under on 100. If I recall correctly we only tickled 100 up here in the Merrimack Valley during last years heat wave and that looked more impressive then this in my opinion. 

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

We pool, we imbibe, we AC, we screen porch

Damn Dave you have an awful bug problem.  I spray spectracide over the entire yard and surrounding woods boundary. No worries about fish on the hill, its pretty much kept bugs to non nuisance levels. Tikis all around at night. No screen, no shorts , no problem 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn Dave you have an awful bug problem.  I spray spectracide over the entire yard and surrounding woods boundary. No worries about fish on the hill, its pretty much kept bugs to non nuisance levels. Tikis all around at night. No screen, no shorts , no problem 

I just use a Job Lot bug zapper. Our neighbors are starting to use them too.

We had a delivery yesterday (the fridge debacle) and the two dudes (both from RI) were freaking out from the deer flies

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m thinking that dews end up mixing down into the mid 60’s. 

The high clouds may halt some areas getting to 100 or 101. There are even some hints we could see convection during the day 

Sometimes if the cirrus is thin enough you get plenty of shortwave rad coming through and longwave IR being reradiated back down giving you a bit of a greenhouse effect. But if you're going to thicken up the high/mid level clouds enough you're going to limit that mixing height and keep higher dews at the sfc. Last year the weenie 2m products were spitting out 100s, but IIRC they were trying to mix out dews. What verified was less mixing, mid to upper 90s, and monster dews. So I think this is a pick your poison deal. Either we mix down upper 60 dews and allow the atmosphere to heat to ~100F at the tarmacs or we have less mixing and let the dews pool and we end up with 96/75 swampazz like last year. Of course a full-fledged MCS and outflow boundaries will muck that up quickly. It's still a few days away too and I know how everyone here loves in-depth warm season temp and dew analysis.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just use a Job Lot bug zapper. Our neighbors are starting to use them too.

We had a delivery yesterday (the fridge debacle) and the two dudes (both from RI) were freaking out from the deer flies

They're getting bad here too. I can feel chunks of flesh getting torn from my body.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is pretty much their zenith around here.  They die down towards the end of July into early August typically. The mosquitoes have continued longer than typical 

Yeah we still have the mosquitoes too. They seem a little smaller than the mosquitoes we've had over the last 3-4 weeks. I'm not aware of all of the species we have, but I'm pretty sure we were previously dealing with mostly those striped tiger ones. These just seem like regular smaller ones. According to Wiki, as of 2015 there was a near 0% probability of having them up here. So maybe we got "lucky" after the dews last summer and they migrated our way.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had citrus and midlevel debris today and we hit 94 with a much cooler 850 airmass 

Didn’t you just spend a half hour explaining that you live around 1,000ft?

Judging by ORH, you probably hit what, 81-82F?  

BDL seems to run high too... 13F difference today from BDL to ORH?  They’ve been doubling the dry adiabatic rate lately.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Didn’t you just spend a half hour explaining that you live around 1,000ft?

Judging by ORH, you probably hit what, 81-82F?  

BDL seems to run high too... 13F difference today from BDL to ORH?  They’ve been doubling the dry adiabatic rate lately.

86F at the STEM maybe nets him an 84F? 10F under BDL?

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