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July pattern(s) and discussion


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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 Nice. That’s only +0.8 when you subtract out the 3F for the newly developed UHI.

Ha yeah they run a healthy 2-3F higher in departures than MVL/MPV/1V4 pretty much year round.

The others radiate and BTV doesn’t but that should be baked into climo already.

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Ah... we'll see -   If the 12z Euro and GGEM continue their heat band wagon.

Thing is, the GFS' 500 mb evolution would also support a BD into central/eastern regions early Saturday...but, it would likely be of shallow variety, and given the scale of that ridge amplifying/particular geometries there in exerting from the west ..the flow would wash it out and probably if one did occur you'd end up with a 5pm high in S. NH...    Gee - maybe I should actually go look at the surface charts now - haha.

Anyway, just the 500 mb looks like an impressive heat signal for the lower Lakes to upper MA and at least as far N as SNE...  late Thur thru Sun

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5-day heat wave, 92-96 style, with lolly 98's...  

Thursday's unrealistically cool given that synopsis ... otherwise that makes it into the running. My guess is ... typical SW flow cloud contamination, which usually ends up with more sun intervals than modeled. 

 

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

MEX rip and read?


GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21 CLIMO
 X/N  89| 62  88| 63  90| 70  88| 70  86| 71  95| 73  90| 63  85 62 85
 TMP  79| 70  78| 71  81| 76  79| 73  80| 76  85| 78  80| 70  76      
 DPT  61| 59  58| 61  63| 67  71| 68  70| 71  71| 68  65| 60  60      
 CLD  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC      
 WND  14|  7   8|  4  10|  9   7|  5  10| 10  18| 15  12|  6   8      
 P12   5|  3   2|  3   2|  9  37| 45  51| 19  23| 30  22| 14  12 21 20
 P24    |      3|      3|     37|     65|     34|     49|     25    31
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   4|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      3|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   1|  1   6|  3  21| 26  28| 10  25| 22  14|  8  11      
 T24    |  0    |  1    |  7    | 35    | 40    | 38    | 14          
                                                                   

12z MEX responds. Torch. Let’s see what WTNH has this evening. ;)

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/14/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19| SAT 20| SUN 21|MON CLIMO
 N/X  61  87| 63  91| 71  87| 70  88| 71  97| 77  97| 69  94| 72 62 85
 TMP  69  77| 70  82| 76  79| 73  81| 76  88| 82  86| 76  84| 77      
 DPT  59  58| 62  64| 68  70| 69  72| 71  73| 74  68| 66  70| 71      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| PC      
 WND   7   8|  4   9|  8   9|  7   7|  6  14| 11  14|  6  12|  8      
 P12   2   1|  5   5| 12  43| 51  50| 18  11| 16  15| 12  16| 22 21 20
 P24       2|      5|     47|     72|     30|     23|     20|       31
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   2|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      1|      3|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   1   0|  1   8|  8  28| 24  34|  9  19| 14  16|  2  12| 12      
 T24        |  1    |  8    | 46    | 39    | 25    | 16    | 23
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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy gradient from you to here...

PWS up this way down into the low-70s now...while it’s 85-90F at a lot of SNE sites.

Even some mid/upper 60s showing up in NEK of VT and N.NH now for the afternoon.

068F3172-16DA-4247-9E52-0D9F089A0A5A.thumb.jpeg.de7e2efb9114d7c6865b15e38627405e.jpeg

Glad we don’t live there 

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